Wilma,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

#221 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 1:49 pm

Graphic of the 18:00z Run of the BAM Models.

#222 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 1:51 pm

Here we go again: left, right, left right left...

I expect the NHC to shift right again at the 5 pm advisory.

MiamiensisWx · #223 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 1:51 pm

Actually, it really does NOT look pathetic... also, even if it may SEEM disorganized, it is very likely only temporary.

#224 Postby **cjrciadt** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 1:52 pm

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html
Water Vapor Loop

Recurve · #225 Postby **Recurve** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 1:52 pm

Yes. In the Caribbean can grow though even with the Gulf dry and cool to the north. Would have been better for this to get into the Gulf quickly and moving along as a TS sputtering on dry air and picked up and sent out to sea and absorbtion in the westerlies.

The more a storm meanders down south of Cuba, the more it wants to come to S FL, forget the west coast. Personally hope in a few days we're not seeing it finally starting to move northward.

markymark8 · #226 Postby **markymark8** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 1:53 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
markymark8 wrote:
Recurve wrote:<Totally amateur observations, not a forecast...for entertainment purposes only...>

Hmm, look at the vapor loops. There seems to be no way Wilma makes it even to the Yucatan channel unless the dry air and ridge and SW steering flow disappear. Looks like she has as much chance of recurving into eastern Cuba and out over the Bahamas -- or being pushed into the Pacific -- as getting into the Gulf as a Cat 2.
Dry air really inhibiting the whole north side. No outflow there, convection all pushed to the south.
Even seen a developing TS split into two? That convection east of Jamaica wants to go its own way and fly off to the English Channel for a spot of tea.
Yepp!!! She doesnt look too hot right now. She is going to have to spit out alot of dry air and alot of reorganizing if she wants to be a cane. This time of year it is hard for a Hurricane to form. Conditions have to be especially perfect in the atmosphere this time of year. It is possible that Wilma will be all hype before its over with. Im not saying its going to happen but I wouldnt be surprised one bit if it did.

Marky...Your Crazy...Its the Conditions around the Storm not the time of the year...

Sorry!!! I meant that. There is more dry air and usually more hostile shear from stronger troughs that hang out in the Atlantic compared to July thru September.

MiamiensisWx · #227 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 1:54 pm

True... however, are you sure that you are not trolling, markymark8?

Also, strong troughs and shear are not in July or August or usually even early September!

Bgator · #228 Postby **Bgator** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 1:54 pm

WOW I just got home and the models shifted well east again and in are in good agreement!

#229 Postby **jlauderdal** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 1:55 pm

LAwxrgal wrote:Here we go again: left, right, left right left...

I expect the NHC to shift right again at the 5 pm advisory.

they are chomping at the bit to go right but the Old out of respect for a couple of models they wisely didn;t do anything drastic.

jkt21787 · #230 Postby **jkt21787** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 1:57 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:True... however, are you sure that you are not trolling, markymark8?

Also, strong troughs and shear are not in July or August or usually even early September!

He has downplayed this system every chance he gets and usually doesn't make sense when saying though he did this timee. Leans more toward troll, IMO.

MiamiensisWx · #231 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 1:59 pm

jkt21787 wrote:He has downplayed this system every chance he gets and usually doesn't make sense when saying though he did this timee. Leans more toward troll, IMO.

Agreed! The system is getting better organized!

markymark8 · #232 Postby **markymark8** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 2:01 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:True... however, are you sure that you are not trolling, markymark8?

Also, strong troughs and shear are not in July or August or usually even early September!

No I am not trolling and no im saying there is less shear July thru September compared to now. You can read my quote either way the way I said it but i would hope you read it the right way. Ive only been tracking hurricanes for 22 years.

leonardo · #233 Postby **leonardo** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 2:02 pm

I think it's actually looking really healthy at the moment...

you have to remember, as a developing tropical storm, it's not always going to have perfect symmetry. A lot of tropical storms look similar to this in their early stages.

one thing to note: it really seems to me that this storm is going to pass VERY close to the coast of Honduras, and combined with the slow movement of the storm, there will likely be some terrible flooding/mudslides there. something to keep in mind as we speculate where U.S. landfall may be.

MiamiensisWx · #234 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 2:02 pm

markymark8 wrote:No I am not trolling and no im saying there is less shear July thru September compared to now. You can read my quote either way the way I said it.

Don't ye speak thy truth? Thou art not so sure...

AZS · #235 Postby **AZS** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 2:03 pm

GFDL says 127 knots in 78 hours

MiamiensisWx · #236 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 2:03 pm

leonardo wrote:I think it's actually looking really healthy at the moment...

you have to remember, as a developing tropical storm, it's not always going to have perfect symmetry. A lot of tropical storms look similar to this in their early stages.

one thing to note: it really seems to me that this storm is going to pass VERY close to the coast of Honduras, and combined with the slow movement of the storm, there will likely be some terrible flooding/mudslides there. something to keep in mind as we look towards a possible Florida landfall.

Agreed. Let's now focus, SERIOUSLY, on Wilma.

Weatherfreak14 · #237 Postby **Weatherfreak14** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 2:03 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:
jkt21787 wrote:He has downplayed this system every chance he gets and usually doesn't make sense when saying though he did this timee. Leans more toward troll, IMO.

Agreed! The system is getting better organized!

Yes I agree also it just really organized from the visible perspective.

Weatherfreak14 · #238 Postby **Weatherfreak14** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 2:04 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:
jkt21787 wrote:He has downplayed this system every chance he gets and usually doesn't make sense when saying though he did this timee. Leans more toward troll, IMO.

Agreed! The system is getting better organized!

Yes I agree also it just really organized from the visible perspective.

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #239 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 2:05 pm

MiamiensisWx · #240 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 2:07 pm

Anyone notice that is looking just like Katrina and Rita did before they got an eye and started to strengthen very quickly?

I have a feeling we are watching a replay unfolding...

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