95L C Atlantic,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[DoctorHurricane2003]

I'm glad you have all of the temperature data that they have.

Another reason is maybe they are just waiting for it to become FULLY tropical before initiating advisories.

Calm down...don't get worked up over something so little

[Forecaster Colby]

I'm not worked up. At the moment, I think the NHC is, for whatever reason, going against very clear data.

[wxmann_91]

I'm not worked up. At the moment, I think the NHC is, for whatever reason, going against very clear data.

You might want to rethink that. You are only a high schooler, one grade higher than me. NHC employees are trained in graduate school and in college, and have also gone through real-life experiences. They have tons and tons more experience and training than you. As well, their products are seen by most across the U.S. and some even countries away, I think they rather trend conservative than do something foolish. There is absolutely no reason to upgrade this.

[superfly]

The reason they are not upgrading it yet is because it poses no immediate danger to land and the system lacks any sort of deep convection near the center.

[Forecaster Colby]

I'm not worked up. At the moment, I think the NHC is, for whatever reason, going against very clear data.

You might want to rethink that. You are only a high schooler, one grade higher than me. NHC employees are trained in graduate school and in college, and have also gone through real-life experiences. They have tons and tons more experience and training than you. As well, their products are seen by most across the U.S. and some even countries away, I think they rather trend conservative than do something foolish. There is absolutely no reason to upgrade this.

The reason they upgrade this is because it's approaching hurricane strength as a subtropical storm, and it's only getting stronger. I said it when Katrina turned, I said it when Rita started her intensification, and I said it with Wilma's pinhole (though I never expected 882). Their policies are very good for a normal year, but this is 2005, and the normal simply does not apply. Being conservative may have caused deaths from each of the big three which could have been prevented. It's better to freak people out unnessessarily than it is to not freak them out when they need to be. They DO have the graduate degress, which means that unless they didn't deserve them, they saw all the signs I did. They didn't go with them, and the rest is history. I have the confidence to go with my gut and my eyes, and that has beaten the NHC consistantly for two years. It's good enough for me.

[HURAKAN]

1:05 AM EDT TWD:

CENTRAL ATLC 982 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N41W DRIFTING
SOUTHWARD. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE CENTER
TONIGHT WITH A DISSIPATING OCCLUDED FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE NORTH
WITH A DISSIPATING COLD AND WARM FRONTS FROM A TRIPLE POINT NEAR
33N34W. STORM WARNING IS IN PLACE FOR WINDS OF AT LEAST 50 KT
WITHIN 360 NM OF THE LOW IN THE SW QUADRANT. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW
IS CURRENTLY NON-TROPICAL...IT IS GRADUALLY ACQUIRING TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE..."DELTA"...
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
175 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE E SEMICIRCLE. HEAVIER CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.


NON-TROPICAL BUT CONVECTION IS WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER.

NHC:

ME IN A FEW MINUTES:

[superfly]

It's better to freak people out unnessessarily than it is to not freak them out when they need to be.

No it's not. Ever heard of "the boy who cried wolf"?

[HURAKAN]

It's better to freak people out unnessessarily than it is to not freak them out when they need to be.

No it's not. Ever heard of "the boy who cried wolf"?

CAN WE GET BACK TO THE THREAD TOPIC, 95L.

THANKS.

[superfly]

It's better to freak people out unnessessarily than it is to not freak them out when they need to be.

No it's not. Ever heard of "the boy who cried wolf"?

CAN WE GET BACK TO THE THREAD TOPIC, 95L.

THANKS.

Can we turn off the caps lock?

Thanks.

[Forecaster Colby]

Indeed. And if the wolf were there and he stayed silent, would things have been better for him?

Back to 95-L, I do think the NHC will see the light by tomorrow evening.

[superfly]

Indeed. And if the wolf were there and he stayed silent, would things have been better for him?

Hardly the case here, you're comparing apples and oranges. NHC had Katrina's track on New Orleans 3 days out even while being conservative.

Same thing they're doing with 95L. There is no need to rush naming the system.

[wxmann_91]

A look at the latest IR image posted by superfly shows that the occluded front is still there, dissipating, but still there. If any of you wonders why NHC doesn't upgrade it, there's the reason. In addition, the frontal convection is still relatively close.

Compare that to Vince, and this image was six hours before he was upgraded. Almost completely independent with nearly all frontal convection away and independent from the circulation.



For those who don't want to scroll up, here's Invest 95L.



Final note here, the Navy had Vince at 35 kt initially even though he was a strong TS, just because the Navy says it is 45 kt right now doesn't mean if Delta forms it can be upgraded to hurricane status right away.

[quandary]

Okay, lets just cool off since this is a case of subjectivism. The storm has a lot of convection now, but it still has a clear warm and cold front attached. So it can be considered a tropical system but really doesn't have to be. The NHC is playing conservative because this thing really isn't bothering anyone and after 24 storms, there's really no point in calling this gale a STS or TS until it is 100%.

As with the NHC being conservative... they have to be; they can't just forecast everything to go up to Cat 5 strength. Sure, it did this year, but it doesn't in normal years. Often the GFDL is just plain whacko. Just because the hyper-forecasters have been right this year and last doesn't mean that they are in any way better than the NHC. It's just the way the dice have rolled these two years.

[TheEuropean]

23/0545 UTC 29.0N 41.4W T2.5/2.5 95 -- Atlantic Ocean

They may upgrade it this morning, but it's their decision.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

They called Vince non-tropical 6 hours before they upgraded. It was fully tropical in may have been subtropical for 2 days before hand.

[TheEuropean]

They called Vince non-tropical 6 hours before they upgraded. It was fully tropical in may have been subtropical for 2 days before hand.

That's right, IMO "Vince" had to be upgraded to a subtropical system 24 to 36 hours before they did.

In this case it's not tropical at this time, but for me it's a subtropical system. They can upgrade it at 4am to subtropical or it will later be directly a tropical system. I prefer the first version with warning for a subtropical and later tropical storm.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I'm glad you have all of the temperature data that they have.

Another reason is maybe they are just waiting for it to become FULLY tropical before initiating advisories.

Calm down...don't get worked up over something so little

So why don't they just drop subtropical for good. In wait intill every system is fully tropical. In which the t numbers support it as. Convection forming over the center is a pretty good hint that it is becoming tropical pretty fast.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Also quickscats shows 50 knots winds...In which is over a large area. Unlike with Vince that had a tight area of strongest winds. That tells me that this may not be fully tropical quite yet. But its getting there...In is at least subtropical.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Matt, Because:

1. Some subtropical systems don't become tropical systems.
2. Some subtropical systems take a VERY long time to become tropical.
3. This storm is clearly on a rapid pace to become tropical, and they would just rather wait until it does.

[TheEuropean]

TWO 05:30 am

A STRONG AND LARGE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC CENTERED ABOUT 1100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES
ISLANDS IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM IS
GRADUALLY ACQUIRING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM
CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

FORECASTER PASCH