Atlantic Tropical Waves,Comments,Sat Pics Thread #2

[Weatherfreak000]

Beven did not mention it because he does not believe it will develop, apparantly, which is fine

What are your thoughts on the wave so far then?

[AJC3]

QS pass just went across the east side, or better said, the eastern 2/3 of the system. There does indeed appear to be some cyclonic turning at the surface out there.


http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBds32.png

[Aric Dunn]

But they are not going to say that when there is not threat ... at the moment .. and read what i wrote a min ago..... the trend needs to continue first for at least 24hrs it has not yet.. only since this morning as the current trend started....so they will slowly inroduce the idea only if the current trend continues

[Ivanhater]

Ok, I was going to pull up a water vapor image expecting to see dry air all around which tends to "choke" these waves to death before anything can get started but to my surprise nothing but bountiful moisture all around ...

[HurricaneHunter914]

That will only help with development I'm afraid. If this does develop though, it will be the first B Storm that formed in the CapeVerde area in a long time.

[Thunder44]

They have images here coming in at every 3 hours. The latest infrared image at 20:45 UTC shows convection has diminished somewhat:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastfullir.html

[HurricaneHunter914]

Though the center of the wave is still holding on to some strong convection.

[HenkL]

Here's another link to Meteosat-8 images, updated every hour. No VIS or IR, but Airmass, Dust and Fog.
http://oiswww.eumetsat.int/IDDS-cgi/listImages.pl?m=prod,sa=8,pr=RGB,c=AIR

[Thunder44]

It looks like it's moving WNW or NW into cooler waters.

[skysummit]

Looking at Aric's link he provided earlier, it almost looks like it's began that northwesterly move already.
http://www.eumetsat.int/idcplg?IdcServi ... d=444&l=en

[HurricaneHunter914]

That's why I said this might be a fish storm.

[wxman57]

Will the NHC put the floater on it soon?

I think it's still too far east for images every 30 mins.

That's right. The only reason I could get a full shot of it last hour was that it was 18Z. Once it moves west of about 31W it'll be in the regular northern hemisphere view.

It's a shame that the euro folks aren't a little more giving with their data. If you have a JAAWIN account , you can view MET-8 data every 15 minutes.

The "old" GOES satellite will be moved eastward over the central Atlantic in a few months. That'll provide imagery of the eastern Atlantic and western Africa either every 15 minutes or every 30 minutes. But I think that won't happen until September or October.

[NONAME]

Wow is all I have to say for this wave. It would have a long way to go due to unfavorable SST to it north Slight Dust/Dry air and Climatology. If it hold"s this structure till 40W it would have a good chance because the SST will Sharply increase but I don't think it will make it that far with such a good Structure. It Bears watching and has potential.

[wxman57]

Will the NHC put the floater on it soon?

I think it's still too far east for images every 30 mins.

Meteosat-8 and Meteosat-9 take images every 15 minutes so that can't be correct. That said I don't know if the NRL can display them publically, when they showed Meteosat-7 ones they did appear degraded.

You are correct. FREE images are available every 3 hours. Europe charges $$$$$ for more frequent imagery, as they do for high-resolution ECMWF data. Maybe we can sell them the GFS? Perhaps give it to them?

[wxman57]

Beven did not mention it because he does not believe it will develop, apparantly, which is fine

Generally, though, the NHC only looks at potential development today and tomorrow on their outlooks. With a system way out in the eastern Atlantic, it's common for the NHC to "ignore" it until it proves that it can maintain deep convection for a few days after emerging off the west coast of Africa.

That can lead to problems, though. In 1995, we had identified a TS out there a good 24-48 hours before the NHC even acknowledged it was there. By the time the NHC got around to looking at it (there were 2-3 other active storms), it had developed this strange "cloud-free central area". In other words, a visible eye had formed on their "depression". But, it wasn't affecting anyone so it really didn't matter at the time.

[SouthFloridawx]

I was just reading the wunder blog on wunderground and jeff masters's attention was certainly spark by this wave.

A new area of concern has developed today off of the coast of Africa, 300 miles south-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, at about 12N 25W. This large and well-organized tropical wave has developed a surface circulation, and is beginning to show some intense thunderstorms developing near its center. Wind shear is a marginal 10-20 knots over the wave, but is forecast to remain at this level or decrease some over the next two days. Sea surface temperatures are marginal for development, about 26-27 degrees C. There is some African dust to the wave's north, but not as much as we've been seeing in previous weeks. This wave could slowly organize into a tropical depression in the next day or two as it moves west-northwest at 15-20 mph. It's too early to speculate what the long-term track of this system might be. NHC is not impressed with this wave; they have not mentioned it in their 5:30 pm tropical outlook. No doubt the marginal SSTs and moderate wind shear--plus the fact that systems in this vicinity generally do not start developing until early August--are giving them a wait-and-see attitude.



http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200607

[Thunder44]

Will the NHC put the floater on it soon?

I think it's still too far east for images every 30 mins.

Meteosat-8 and Meteosat-9 take images every 15 minutes so that can't be correct. That said I don't know if the NRL can display them publically, when they showed Meteosat-7 ones they did appear degraded.

You are correct. FREE images are available every 3 hours. Europe charges $$$$$ for more frequent imagery, as they do for high-resolution ECMWF data. Maybe we can sell them the GFS? Perhaps give it to them?

I didn't know that Meteosat could take more images themselves. I really meant that it would be in the range of GOES East to take more images on the floater.

[ThunderMate]

so, any new updates on the wave or data? still looks nice and looks to be moving W-WNW but how strong is the high to its immediate North?

[brunota2003]

well with waves this far out also, they really aren't threatening any land areas, yet...so they dont have to start issueing advisories right away and if it holds together then they can look at it...if this were to be classified as a TD today...who says it will still be together tomorrow? so even I would take a wait-and-see attitude towards them...

[AJC3]

I was just reading the wunder blog on wunderground and jeff masters's attention was certainly spark by this wave.

A new area of concern has developed today off of the coast of Africa, 300 miles south-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, at about 12N 25W. This large and well-organized tropical wave has developed a surface circulation, and is beginning to show some intense thunderstorms developing near its center. Wind shear is a marginal 10-20 knots over the wave, but is forecast to remain at this level or decrease some over the next two days. Sea surface temperatures are marginal for development, about 26-27 degrees C. There is some African dust to the wave's north, but not as much as we've been seeing in previous weeks. This wave could slowly organize into a tropical depression in the next day or two as it moves west-northwest at 15-20 mph. It's too early to speculate what the long-term track of this system might be. NHC is not impressed with this wave; they have not mentioned it in their 5:30 pm tropical outlook. No doubt the marginal SSTs and moderate wind shear--plus the fact that systems in this vicinity generally do not start developing until early August--are giving them a wait-and-see attitude.



http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200607

For those who want more info on those neat vortices downwind of the islands, try googling "von karmann vortices" or "vortex shedding". These types of vortices have been discussed in a few threads on here in the past.