91L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[Derek Ortt]

Visible imagery is surely much better organized.

If this does develop, it may go ahead and become Beryl and skip the TD phase. The speed of motion will enhance the winds east of the trough/center, which likely would bring this directly to Beryl

[Thunder44]

Bouy 41004 winds have turned to the SSW at this hour.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41004

[shaggy]

its alreadya bit breezy here not much to speak of but a shock to wake up to this system this morning.Thank god its going to run out of room soon if this organization had started 200 miles further south we could have had a real problem!

[Scorpion]

Wow! I haven't really been keeping track of 91L recently. If this can form today, it will beat Bret by 1 day!

[gatorcane]

Wow! I haven't really been keeping track of 91L recently. If this can form today, it will beat Bret by 1 day!

It's running out of real estate though...

[KWT]

Mind you so was Bret gatorcane when it formed...if it does form, thats scary to think we'll be ahead of 2005!!!!

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=84353

see last post of tropical analysis thread as I have put out an nwhhc tds

[CrazyC83]

Visible imagery is surely much better organized.

If this does develop, it may go ahead and become Beryl and skip the TD phase. The speed of motion will enhance the winds east of the trough/center, which likely would bring this directly to Beryl

Only if it has 35kt winds, which it likely does not...

[Derek Ortt]

I would not put it past the system to have 35KT winds, due to the fairly quick motion of the system

[Derek Ortt]

seeing a weak cyclonic circulation on the long range Wilmongton radar... just not sure if it is at the surface or mid-levels

even so, NC is about to get hit by a very heavy rainband

[JamesFromMaine2]

ok I know I am going to be attacked for saying this but this could be a Hurricane! The windsat missed the center and it had 60kts winds pretty far away from the center!

[Stormcenter]

ok I know I am going to be attacked for saying this but this could be a Hurricane! The windsat missed the center and it had 60kts winds pretty far away from the center!

I don't think so.

[WindRunner]

ok I know I am going to be attacked for saying this but this could be a Hurricane! The windsat missed the center and it had 60kts winds pretty far away from the center!

Yeah, it was showing that yesterday with 93L, and look at it today - practically nothing. Plus, that doesn't mark any rain contamination that may have occured, and we know there is plenty of rain with this system.

[Derek Ortt]

no chance at all of a hurricane... more of Mickelson winning the driving accuracy category

Now, QS did show uncontaminated TS winds, but no northerly winds. That is the component lacking, which is expected for a northward moving system

[Ivan14]

It certainly is looking more like a hurricane on standard inferred.

[Tampa_God]

This looks like a tropical depression, if not, than a storm. It has convention wrapping around it and I see a good circulation. I am surprise no one has got off the bandwagon and said it's already a TD.

[storms NC]

Will It has been raining here for 4 days now. I am only 50 miles NE of Wilm. So What is a little more rain. There is been flooding around the state for the past few days. I was flood by floyd and you do get a little worried when there has been alot of rain. Your mine goes back to High waters. Not fun leaveing in a boat.

[dhweather]

It certainly does not look like a hurricane on ANY satellite images.

It might be a depression, and may become a tropical storm before hitting NC.

[terstorm1012]

no chance at all of a hurricane... more of Mickelson winning the driving accuracy category

Now, QS did show uncontaminated TS winds, but no northerly winds. That is the component lacking, which is expected for a northward moving system

Hey Derek,

shouldn't we be seeing evidence of NE winds along the coast though? Merely curious.

I still see lots of Southeast winds.

[AJC3]

This looks like a tropical depression, if not, than a storm. It has convention wrapping around it and I see a good circulation. I am surprise no one has got off the bandwagon and said it's already a TD.

Here's the rub in what you're seeing:

1) You're looking down at the deep convection from satellite imagery, so you're actually not able to see what's going on at the surface or even at CU level (~3KFT).

2) When you're looking at the "circulation" on a satellite loop, you're not really looking at the ground relative spin. Since it's only natural for your eyes to follow the system instead of focussing on a fixed point relative to the system, you're following the storm relative circulation. This happens frequently with systems embedded in the easterlies within deep tropics when they're moving with a forward speed AOA 20kt.

There's no doubt that there's spin aloft on radar and satellite. There's also no doubt that the system has a much better satellite presentation than it ever has.

However, there's also no doubt that the surface obs do not show any closed wind circulation. If one is out there, it's miniscule. Since the system is accelerating northward, it seems unlikely that it will acquire one before moving inland.

Not impossible, just not likely from where this met is sitting. YOMV.