96L Invest,E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

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Jam151
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#221 Postby Jam151 » Mon Jul 10, 2006 12:32 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:The global models are not that good at working with tropical cyclones. Over the years they have been improved for there ghost canes. But instead now have the problem of not developing/closing off low pressure area's. Another thing is global models even showing a strong wave like system can be a tropical storm for that reason. I'v seen it many of times. So it even developing it to the point of it is is impressive. If the ECMWF was showing development that would be amazing.

I'm not hyping anything.


Well lets not look at the models anymore, the sat imagiry tells the story anyway, which is no development, no chance,no shot, nada. Okay i'm going to bed, i'll give my opinion on this thing again tommorw. Good night everyone... :) :) :) :)
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#222 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Mon Jul 10, 2006 12:35 am

The SAT imagery shows a wave that is organizing in the Central Atlantic. Dude you trying to be a troll?
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#223 Postby Jam151 » Mon Jul 10, 2006 12:39 am

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:The SAT imagery shows a wave that is organizing in the Central Atlantic. Dude you trying to be a troll?


No man I'm just giving my opinion. You can't just look at an IR sat pic. I've look at everything, and while it looks good now the enviroment ahead of the wave is poor. Thats all I'm saying and you can take that as trolling if you want because thats you but i'm not trolling. :D
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#224 Postby southerngale » Mon Jul 10, 2006 12:42 am

cheezywxman wrote:Yall are probably gonna go against me on this but im actualy looking forward to development...the more it organizes the better chance there is of it staying intact(duh). A previous AFD from houston that was stated earlier this morning in a post farther back in this thread said that theres a chance that the wave may make it to Texas...Im hoping it doesnt get too strong, but strong enough to remain intact until it makes landfall...im hoping to god it makes it to texas so it can bring some much needed rain to our state and hopefully make it up into the dallas area where i live. Remember, im not -removed- anything more than a moderate TS at most for this system...IN no way do I want to see a massive hurricane destroy the Texas coast.
Just some rain that will bring us closer to ending our drought


Actually, it didn't say anything about making it to Texas. It simply said:

MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TROPICAL WAVE TO THE EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...BUT AT THE MOMENT IT LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE TO
CLOSE TO THE EQUATOR. 45

and that would be a logical thing for any NWS office along the coast to say.


You do sound a little eager though. Come down here where Rita hit last year and you might not be so eager for any kind of tropical system to hit Texas. You can get rain in the northern part of Texas without those of us along the coast having to deal with a TS or hurricane. We don't need any rain down here either. We've had 3 flooding events in just over a month, the first two being the worst.
Last edited by southerngale on Mon Jul 10, 2006 12:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#225 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Mon Jul 10, 2006 12:44 am

Even with shear ahead of it this Invest has been pretty persistent so far.
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#226 Postby NDG » Mon Jul 10, 2006 12:50 am

Its natural for the NHC to say:"There's shear ahead" but, you can't go for what the present conditions, conditions in the atmosphere change continuisly, espcially with a strong east to west steerings across the tropics, even upper level atmospheric rivers move from east to west at this time of the year, and that is exactly what the models are forecasting, for the shear to lessen in the eastern Caribbean.
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#227 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Jul 10, 2006 12:58 am

Looking at the shear/info the shear levels are increasing at 10 knots to the west of the system. With the upper level Anticyclone getting flaten over a east to west area around 10 north. This system appears that it will be moving into stronger shear over the next 12 hours.
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#228 Postby boca » Mon Jul 10, 2006 1:02 am

When does the shear let up?
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#229 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Jul 10, 2006 1:04 am

The 00z 200 millibar/shear level shows that the tutt running southeastward from the ULL north of Hati. Is forcing/developing strong shear over the area around 50 to 60 west. The Gfs shifts this westward at 24-30 hours, in which the Anticyclone rebuilds over our system. Then the Anticyclone stays over it as it moves into the eastern caribbean.

Will it last pass the next 24 to 30 hours is the quastion...
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#230 Postby NDG » Mon Jul 10, 2006 1:07 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:The 00z 200 millibar/shear level shows that the tutt running southeastward from the ULL north of Hati. Is forcing/developing strong shear over the area around 50 to 60 west. The Gfs shifts this westward at 24-30 hours, in which the Anticyclone rebuilds over our system. Then the Anticyclone stays over it as it moves into the eastern caribbean.

Will it last pass the next 24 to 30 hours is the quastion...


Good notice, but I think is will not be enough destroy this system.
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#231 Postby boca » Mon Jul 10, 2006 1:07 am

Can you post the shear map?
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#232 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Jul 10, 2006 1:10 am

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/tropic.html
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#233 Postby NDG » Mon Jul 10, 2006 1:21 am

NDG wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:The 00z 200 millibar/shear level shows that the tutt running southeastward from the ULL north of Hati. Is forcing/developing strong shear over the area around 50 to 60 west. The Gfs shifts this westward at 24-30 hours, in which the Anticyclone rebuilds over our system. Then the Anticyclone stays over it as it moves into the eastern caribbean.

Will it last pass the next 24 to 30 hours is the quastion...


Good notice, but I think is will not be enough destroy this system.


Actually, now that I have looked at the loop on the shear tendency map, you can clearly see that the area of higher shear just to the west of this system before the Leeward Islands, is moving westward just ahead of the system, this tells me that is in response to the anticyclonic flow above 96L, so by the time 96L gets to that spot it should be gone by then if the anticyclonic flow stays above it.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/movies/wg8sht/wg8shtjava.html
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#234 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Mon Jul 10, 2006 1:23 am

So as that area of high shears moves away from Invest 96L, the chances for development will go up?
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#235 Postby NDG » Mon Jul 10, 2006 1:29 am

I think that the chance of development is there now. We have to watch to see if that area of higher shear a few hundred miles to the west of the system moves westward as this system approaches, otherwise it will slow down its development.
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#236 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Mon Jul 10, 2006 1:34 am

So the movement of that area of high shear will determine whether the chances of development for this wave has gone up or whether they have gone down.
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#237 Postby NDG » Mon Jul 10, 2006 1:39 am

Yes, or if it lessens as well.
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#238 Postby NDG » Mon Jul 10, 2006 1:49 am

This thing is very impressive for being officially just a tropical wave, very nice banding signatures this morning!!

Image
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#239 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Jul 10, 2006 3:16 am

10/0545 UTC 10.3N 42.6W TOO WEAK 96L
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#240 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Jul 10, 2006 4:35 am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 100808
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT MON JUL 10 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS IS LOCATED
ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH
AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
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