Tropical Depression #5,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Locked
Message
Author
miamicanes177
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1131
Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 10:53 pm

#221 Postby miamicanes177 » Thu Aug 24, 2006 5:24 pm

the SAL to the west has gone down significantly the past 6 hours
currently
6 hours ago
0 likes   
Top
Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10375
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

#222 Postby Sanibel » Thu Aug 24, 2006 5:26 pm

Pulse down and even better curvature.


Burst over center.


SST off Sanibel - 89*
Last edited by Sanibel on Thu Aug 24, 2006 5:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
jasons2k
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 8245
Age: 51
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
Location: The Woodlands, TX

#223 Postby jasons2k » Thu Aug 24, 2006 5:27 pm

I have discounted the CMC a lot this season since it has formed so many phantom systems - but I don't like the fact it curves the system as it approaches TX.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
all_we_know_is_FALLING
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 417
Joined: Fri Jun 09, 2006 3:06 pm
Location: Somewhere over the rainbow...
Contact:
Contact all_we_know_is_FALLING

#224 Postby all_we_know_is_FALLING » Thu Aug 24, 2006 5:29 pm

The NHC wasn't as positive for development as I was expecting.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Trugunzn
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 549
Joined: Tue Apr 11, 2006 6:59 pm

#225 Postby Trugunzn » Thu Aug 24, 2006 5:31 pm

Convection finally blew up over the new center. Very good sign for it. If it where going slower it would intensify faster.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Scott_inVA
Storm2k Forecaster
Storm2k Forecaster
Posts: 1238
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2002 5:44 pm
Location: Lexington, Virginia
Contact:
Contact Scott_inVA

#226 Postby Scott_inVA » Thu Aug 24, 2006 5:38 pm

Air Force Met wrote:For what its worth...the HPC forecast points are different from the NHC points. The 72 hour point was 20N/78W and the 120H point was 24N and 86W...so the HPC is going for more of a WNW track at the end of the period along the southern tip of Cuba and into the SE GOM.


Here's what I have for the HPC 18Z run:

Image

That jive with you? Appears HPC initialized a tad south of TPCs F/A #1

Scott
0 likes   
Top
Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10375
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

#227 Postby Sanibel » Thu Aug 24, 2006 5:38 pm

It's partly due to the system still being embedded in the wave axis.
0 likes   
Top
canes04
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 302
Joined: Sat May 22, 2004 5:41 pm
Location: Miami, FL

Forward speed

#228 Postby canes04 » Thu Aug 24, 2006 5:44 pm

It appears TD5/Erensto is slowing down.
This should allow the high to build in and the ULL to lift out.
It's possible we may have our first cane by Sat am.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
AL Chili Pepper
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 873
Joined: Thu Aug 12, 2004 1:15 pm
Location: Mobile, AL

#229 Postby AL Chili Pepper » Thu Aug 24, 2006 5:49 pm

jschlitz wrote:I have discounted the CMC a lot this season since it has formed so many phantom systems - but I don't like the fact it curves the system as it approaches TX.


I keep looking at these models and trying to place my chips on one, only to keep coming back to the realization that it's still way too early to know anything for anywhere near sure. The CMC is probably the most consistent one right now. Of course, it was consistently way bad on one of the storms I was tracking last year, can't remember which one.

The ridging doesn't seem to be that impressive to the north over time, but hopefully will push it past LA. I don't see how it'll end up in Mexico though. That only leaves one answer....TX.

If it survives the obstacle course.
0 likes   
Top
MWatkins
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2574
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2002 7:51 pm
Location: SE Florida
Contact:
Contact MWatkins

#230 Postby MWatkins » Thu Aug 24, 2006 5:53 pm

Hi Scott...

HPC used the 18Z initialization point from ATCF...which was made before recon fixed the center further north than the sat fixes...so the 21Z 3 hour forecast position appeared to jump when really it was just a relocation of the center.

Right now...if I had to pick a track...I would go with HPC...looks like 5 has slowed some today.

MW
0 likes   
Updating on the twitter now: http://www.twitter.com/@watkinstrack
Top
Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10375
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

#231 Postby Sanibel » Thu Aug 24, 2006 5:56 pm

It's really bulking up on South American/Caribbean moisture.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Trugunzn
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 549
Joined: Tue Apr 11, 2006 6:59 pm

Re: Forward speed

#232 Postby Trugunzn » Thu Aug 24, 2006 5:56 pm

canes04 wrote:It appears TD5/Erensto is slowing down.
This should allow the high to build in and the ULL to lift out.
It's possible we may have our first cane by Sat am.


How do u know its slowing down?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Yankeegirl
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3417
Age: 49
Joined: Sun May 23, 2004 11:59 pm
Location: Cy-Fair, Northwest Houston
Contact:
Contact Yankeegirl

#233 Postby Yankeegirl » Thu Aug 24, 2006 6:05 pm

oh, this sucks...
http://www.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/ ... 12_144.jpg
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HurricaneGirl
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5839
Age: 60
Joined: Thu Feb 06, 2003 9:45 am
Location: Clare, Michigan
Contact:
Contact HurricaneGirl

#234 Postby HurricaneGirl » Thu Aug 24, 2006 6:08 pm

:eek:
0 likes   
Top
JonathanBelles
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 11430
Age: 35
Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2005 9:00 pm
Location: School: Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL) Home: St. Petersburg, Florida
Contact:
Contact JonathanBelles

#235 Postby JonathanBelles » Thu Aug 24, 2006 6:12 pm

i want one...
0 likes   
Top
jhamps10

#236 Postby jhamps10 » Thu Aug 24, 2006 6:16 pm



That looks very bullish :eek:
0 likes   
Top
Scorpion

#237 Postby Scorpion » Thu Aug 24, 2006 6:17 pm

997 mb...not very bullish to me.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SouthFloridawx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8346
Age: 46
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:
Contact SouthFloridawx

#238 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Aug 24, 2006 6:18 pm

Scorpion wrote:997 mb...not very bullish to me.

Remember Intensity is crap with global models. It will be less than that.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ConvergenceZone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5196
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:40 am
Location: Northern California

#239 Postby ConvergenceZone » Thu Aug 24, 2006 6:21 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:
Scorpion wrote:997 mb...not very bullish to me.

Remember Intensity is crap with global models. It will be less than that.


could be less or could be more, just don't know...
0 likes   
Top
jwayne
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 242
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:33 pm

#240 Postby jwayne » Thu Aug 24, 2006 6:27 pm



I second that!!! Throw that away!!
0 likes   
Top
Locked

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Cpv17, Hurricaneman, kevin, TampaWxLurker, TomballEd and 48 guests