Hurricane Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread #1

[jpigott]

are those the outflow channels Stewart was talking about?

[Starburst]

I found them on Accuweather Pro. Sorry I believe there maps on pro are copyrighted because it states no distribution

If it helps it was the GFDL and the NAM that shifted back to the Florida Panhandle

[Aquawind]

Looks very close to Cayes, Haiti with enough elevation to disrupt a bit.

[Thatsmrhurricane]

What is that jet streaking S from the middle of the storm?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg

[TampaFl]

I found them on Accuweather Pro. Sorry I believe there maps on pro are copyrighted because it states no distribution

If it helps it was the GFDL and the NAM that shifted back to the Florida Panhandle

I am also a Pro member, not sure what you saw on the GFDL, but at 120hrs it is forecast to be heading for the Fl Big Bend area, moving east og Appalachcola and north of Cedar Key.

[AlabamaDave]

Is it just me, or is this one of the whackiest round of long range forecasts of a hurricane in a long time. In two days, we've wandered all the way from Texas to the Florida peninsula for landfall. Crazy!!! Let's face, long range hurricane forecasting is still pretty much voodooland for many storms. And we wonder why many coastal residents don't take things seriously until shortly before the storm!

[Toadstool]

I think you are missing his point because it was a very specific conversation on the board yesterday, but he's just saying no one should rule out certain possibilities (like Ernesto hitting FL).

[Starburst]

I found them on Accuweather Pro. Sorry I believe there maps on pro are copyrighted because it states no distribution

If it helps it was the GFDL and the NAM that shifted back to the Florida Panhandle

I am also a Pro member, not sure what you saw on the GFDL, but at 120hrs it is forecast to be heading for the Fl Big Bend area, moving east og Appalachcola and north of Cedar Key.

You are absolutely correct!!!! I guess I should have dumped my cookies before stating that fact.... thanks for correcting that I would have went all day looking at the same plots

[AZRainman]

Is it just me, or is this one of the whackiest round of long range forecasts of a hurricane in a long time.

There's been a lot of deep division on Ernesto's forecast from laymen to the professionals. Cane fever perhaps?

I was thinking farther west, but the models are consistantly making my idea look implausible.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_05.gif

[Thatsmrhurricane]

Big streaking jet . . . Improved outflow in most quads . . . What is the interaction N of Ernesto?

[Aquawind]

Get Back on Subject NOW! Mac check your PMs

[cycloneye]

The moderators have been trying to tell you all day that this is a forum and not a chat room. By all means if you have something to discuss, then discuss it.. But dont just post for the sake of posting. No need to post. "I agree" or "lets see" or "yes" "no" The board is just getting to busy to have all these kind of posts cluttering things up and slowing the board down. None of us wants the server to over load, so please lets keep the "chat room" talk in the chatroom http://www.stormdancing.net/network/jav ... torm2k.htm

The nonsense posts will be removed and if we have to continue to delete a certain members posts the staff will have no choice but to suspend accounts. Its not because we want to restrict posting, We just cant have the site going down and people not being able to get the information to keep them safe all becuase of nonsense posts.

Thanks for your cooperation

Moderator Cycloneye

[ronjon]

Looks like Ernie is undergoing a slight weakening trend as its overall circulation is disrupted by the mtns of Hispanola. But the upper level environment looks superb and over the next 6-12 hours as it pulls W-NW away it should rapidly intensity. Some of the highest tropical cyclone heat potentials lie between JAM & CUBA and generally south of Cuba.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 6238ca.jpg

[jpigott]

1315 visible sat image shows a new blow up of convection near the center of circulation

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/Rmsd ... PICAL.html

[JonathanBelles]

how many times have i told the lot of ya that this was gonna be a florida storm?

[rnbaida]

nice blowup in convection near the center...

[wzrgirl1]

any new spaghetti model plots out?

[Toadstool]

1315 visible sat image shows a new blow up of convection near the center of circulation

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/Rmsd ... PICAL.html

Looking better organized on that image, though it still looks odd from IR, like two storms.

[Jevo]

Get Back on Subject NOW! Mac check your PMs

OK now youre getting Paul FIRED up....... If Paul were a hurricane his name would be Hurricane Floytrinilma

Seriously though... AFM looking at the structure of the storm... He's damn ugly right now, albeit I dont think this storm has been "pretty" once.... If he follows the NHCs track at a cat 1 do you see him departing cuba as a TS or holding his status?

[Thatsmrhurricane]

Everything still N of guidance . . . I don't care if you want to call it a "trend" or center reformation.

All those clouds to Ernie's N . . . What is that? Outflow? ULL?