Ernesto,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

#221 Postby **Wthrman13** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 1:30 am

the first IR image from GOES-12 out of eclipse shows that the convection has expanded significantly. So far this has not translated into intensfication.

#222 Postby **deltadog03** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 1:33 am

good point wtherman
i see that the center fix is on the SW side of the deep convection.

superfly · #223 Postby **superfly** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 1:34 am

Looks like a 40 MPH TS at most.

stormtruth · #224 Postby **stormtruth** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 1:34 am

Looks like the strongest winds are coming in now. Some 30 to 36kt winds

#225 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 1:37 am

Wthrman13 wrote:the first IR image from GOES-12 out of eclipse shows that the convection has expanded significantly. So far this has not translated into intensfication.

HurricaneHunter914 · #226 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 1:38 am

HOLY! That diurnal maximum is really kicking in.

#227 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 1:42 am

One more image... I'm going to bed.

Thunder44 · #228 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 1:43 am

It's not that far from Cuban coast now. I don't think there we be much strengthening until gets north Cuba, assuming it holds together.

stormtruth · #229 Postby **stormtruth** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 1:46 am

Thunder44 wrote:It's not that far from Cuban coast now. I don't think there we be much strengthening until gets north Cuba, assuming it holds together.

Probably not but it doesn't look like it will be over Cuba for very long.

calculatedrisk · #230 Postby **calculatedrisk** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 1:47 am

The NHC had the last position at 19.0 N...75.0 W. This seems a little further east than that position. Recon is flying east right now, so this will be an interesting pass.

I think Ernesto is moving more North than the NHC forecast track.

HurricaneHunter914 · #231 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 1:48 am

Ernesto appears stronger now, probably at 60 mph.

#232 Postby **tgenius** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 1:50 am

You know.. I find it somewhat interesting that Ernesto is picking one of the slimmest portions of cuba to traverse....

Coredesat · #233 Postby **Coredesat** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 1:59 am

That area of Cuba is somewhat mountainous, though. It should still feel some effects from it.

HurricaneJim · #234 Postby **HurricaneJim** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:01 am

Won't take long to get past that either and then back to mother water.

Jim
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https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/WAM/all_natl.html

HurricaneHunter914 · #235 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:01 am

Some, but probably not much. Ernesto still has alot of tricks up his sleeves.

superfly · #236 Postby **superfly** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:02 am

Classic example was when Ivan tip-toed past the western coast of Cuba instead of going across it.

Thunder44 · #237 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:17 am

Anybody else going to post obs in the recon thread while I'm doing the pics?

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #238 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:30 am

If the center is at 19 north/75 west then its got two options if it wents to servive. 1# Go north-northwestard across the narrow part of eastern Cuba. Still has mountains in is 10 times worst then that part of hati it went over. Most likely will be a very weak tropical storm if not a depression by the time it moves off in about 12 to 18 hours. 2# Move westward like Dennis...It would have to do so before 19.5 north if not then it will be moving over cuba. Any whre in between this is doom for Ernesto.

Personally the nhc track would destroy the centrol core of the system. Heck at this strength I don't even expect a closed system at all...

So he gots two options. I don't think he will even have a chance...Or if he doe's he will have just as much chance as any other tropical wave.

#239 Postby **ericinmia** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:31 am

New mm5 at 18k is still rolling in... but showing something very similar to GFDL.... i sure hope this isn't a consensus building...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/ERNESTO.d2.track.png

#240 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:34 am

ericinmia wrote:New mm5 at 18k is still rolling in... but showing something very similar to GFDL.... i sure hope this isn't a consensus building...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/ERNESTO.d2.track.png

I posted this on the last page...
New GFDL showing Landfall in souther florida moving northward through the Peninsula. Cat 1 winds throughout S. Florida.
http://met.psu.edu/~arnottj/CHARM/tcgen ... /slp10.png

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

CMC showing a southern florida hit
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

GFS showing a southern florida hit
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

MM5 Showing a South Florida Hit
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc ... =Animation

UKMET showing a south Florida Hit
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

Ernesto,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

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