TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #5

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tgenius
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#221 Postby tgenius » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:29 pm

Sanibel..so you think Ernie lives still and isn't on his death bed?
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tallywx
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#222 Postby tallywx » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:29 pm

In that wide-angle satellite view what I see is Ernesto one step away from degenerating into a wave axis (see how the convective balls through the system are in almost a straight line?) I've never seen a storm as hydrophobic as this one.

Open Caribbean? let's tear up against Haiti

High heat content waters south of Cuba? let's jog northward into the mountains

Water north of Cuba? okay, NOW let's finally move westward!
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BOPPA
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#223 Postby BOPPA » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:30 pm

We just had a major lightning/rain storm here Ft. Myers - gone now - hope the shift
west does not continue???
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#224 Postby Emmett_Brown » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:36 pm

Lowpressure wrote:All I know is every time this year I look at the BIG PICTURE, I see a hurricane in the EASTPAC!!


Yup... me too. They definitely know how to make 'em this year in the epac.

I really think that the overall rotation of the storm is gathering itself. The current LLC (if there is one asside from the broad overall rotation) may be rotating somewhat around a larger gire. Now that E is over the more shallow portion of Cuber, he is tapping moist air from the south again. I really do think we are go for launch, but not sure there is enough time for a 'cane, unless it hooks around to the W coast.
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#225 Postby Rainband » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:37 pm

Looking at the water vapor Looks like it may continue westward. It may only be a wave by then though.
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Sanibel
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#226 Postby Sanibel » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:37 pm

Sanibel..so you think Ernie lives still and isn't on his death bed?



Convection is ragged, but I see plenty of activity in the low level inflow. Remember, this hasn't tapped the Gulf Stream. Seeing how Gulf Stream boosting takes some time to build up (see: Wilma), if it does track up the west coast like Donna you might be surprised by what it could do.

This is right on a potential Donna track. It just doesn't have the intensity (yet).
Last edited by Sanibel on Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#227 Postby gtalum » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:38 pm

Donna was a Category 4 before she ever came near Florida, though.
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#228 Postby Stormavoider » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:39 pm

Everything seems to be lifting north looking at this.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=22&lon=-75&info=ir&zoom=1&width=2800&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=6&palette=spect.pal
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#229 Postby LeeJet » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:44 pm

The center is now over water, from what it looks like:

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif
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ROCK
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#230 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:45 pm




b/c the ULL to its NW is snagging some of its moisture in the upper levels...
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#231 Postby ShilohCane » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:45 pm

Is it true the computer models don't work as well with a weaker storm like this one since they have more external events that can effect a weaker storm?
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#232 Postby johngaltfla » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:46 pm

Looks more like a NW jog, but the loop is to short to be conclusive...
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#233 Postby Damar91 » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:47 pm

LeeJet wrote:The center is now over water, from what it looks like:

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif


Yeah, looks like it finally made it. Probably too late though.
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#234 Postby wxman57 » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:48 pm

RickyR wrote:


wxman57, pardon my question, but what are the arrows pointing to, or what do they mean?
Thanks, Ricky


The arrows are pointing to the CONU track in blue. It's now the westernmost model and the one the NHC has been following closely.
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#235 Postby Stormavoider » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:49 pm

johngaltfla wrote:Looks more like a NW jog, but the loop is to short to be conclusive...

Change Numframes= in the URL to anything up to 30 if you want a longer loop.
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#236 Postby tampastorm » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:49 pm

LeeJet wrote:The center is now over water, from what it looks like:

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif


Is that blob off cuba the center?
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Sanibel
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#237 Postby Sanibel » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:50 pm

I see the center as including that dry gap seen overland. It's a broad circulation with plenty of moist overwater inflow.
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#238 Postby Josephine96 » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:50 pm

If it's back over water, It's still got a shot with the warm waters ahead of it before South Fla.
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tgenius
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#239 Postby tgenius » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:52 pm

It finally chugged off cuba, sheesh.. the whole anti-water thing someone brought up appears to be spot on.
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#240 Postby Deb321 » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:53 pm

I am watching Lyons right now and he just said it is still over land ?
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