TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #6

[Canelaw99]

I'm an amateur and I"m not ashamed to admit it, soooo....could someone, perhaps, point out the center for me in this image??? Thanks!!!

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_storm_relative_1.html

P.S: I can't get the image to print on the page, so maybe someone could point it out & post it?

[WmE]

[westmoon]

stormie,

Well, according to 970 WFLA in Tampa this morning, if Ernesto did reach Tampa, it would be nothing more than a thunderstorm, so we are completely in the clear.

Personally, I think that was an irresponsible statement given that Tampa is still in the cone of uncertainty, a cone which still includes a stretch of warm water between Ernesto and Tampa and therefore the possibility (not probability) of something stronger than a thunderstorm reaching Tampa.

It seems reasonable given the model shift that the actual track will likely be west of current NHC thinking, since the NHC track is the outlier. Although, I understand that they move slowly so as not to make bit jumps from forecast to forecast. Still, although I don't expect much more than a thunderstorm and possibly some heavy winds in this area (maybe!), the media really should tell people to be prepared, no? This is exactly why everyone was so surprised with Charlie even though where he struck was within the cone...

Okay, I'll get off my rant now -- but, really guys, am I missing something here or was that a crazy statement by the media or what??

Thats what scares me here, it's been blown off in the media as nothing. There spending 80% of the day talking about Katrina and not what could be going on in out own back yard.

[Canelaw99]

TY for the image, now I just need the center Some nice blowups of storms occuring though, that's for sure!

[WmE]

sorry, problem with my computer:

edited

[mettski]

now you're getting me worried, gf is in gulfport, st pete's and everyone there still thinks miami is getting it, not much going on media wise.

[HKY]

Almost all the 12z models on that hurricane page take it inland all the way up between tampa and ponte gorde. That is an additional 12 hours of 88 degree water. This thing has unbelievable structure for just coming off of Cuba. If i lived as far north as Tampa, I would take precautions and making plans to leave just in case things continue to trend up the coast. IMO, the further W it gets before turning N, the stronger the Hurricane will be. Most of these strength guidance forecasts are based off of a storm coming ashore right up the spine. Please, don't let this be another charley...

[gatorcane]

again concentrate on the cone and NOT the line.

Tampa is in that cone.

[westmoon]

mettski,

now you're getting me worried, gf is in gulfport, st pete's and everyone there still thinks miami is getting it, not much going on media wise.

It's like all have forgotten that we are still in the cone and it's too soon to let our guard down.

[storms in NC]

I think NHC has a hold on this now. if any thing it would move back to the right aittle. You can see on the vloop that it is being flaten on the west side. That tell me it would be going on the track it is on by the NHC if not to the right a tad. remember wobbles here and there will make a big diffence in it's track. east or west.

I see no flatening at all im not sure what your seeing.. Can you point out what you mean by flaten on the west side I see some flatening on the south side but not the west. not sure if I would call that flating on the south side just not good out flow.

this is what I was talking about. you can see it is coming oblong now

[img=http://img137.imageshack.us/img137/9452/eid7.th.jpg]

[SouthFloridawx]

I think I'll wait for the 12Z Global Models before I would start thinking a track change but, everyone should be prepared as all of us are in the cone.

[Bgator]

Almost all the 12z models on that hurricane page take it inland all the way up between tampa and ponte gorde. That is an additional 12 hours of 88 degree water. This thing has unbelievable structure for just coming off of Cuba. If i lived as far north as Tampa, I would take precautions and making plans to leave just in case things continue to trend up the coast. IMO, the further W it gets before turning N, the stronger the Hurricane will be. Most of these strength guidance forecasts are based off of a storm coming ashore right up the spine. Please, don't let this be another charley...

People do not look at the BAM's, the LBAR, the A98E and the ones through tampa, theya re undynamical, the globals all take it in through monroe county...

[Wx_Warrior]

What is that thing? The blob's step kid?

[fox13weather]

Well, if the storm enters the state near the everglades as expected as a tropical storm and then moves north up the spine of the state then all that the Tampa Bay area will receive will be squalls. Why is that irresposible when a meteorologist is making a forecast that in all likelihood will verify?? Even is the storm becomes a cat 1 at landfall the threat to the tampa bay area is still small.....

tronbunny,

Myersgirl wrote:
NCH track currently the eastern outlier again
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_05.gif

Looks like the 0600Z GFDL is showing us a Donna/Charley like track...
Ahhh, but thank goodness there's no way Ernie can gather that kind of steam!

Lets just hope he can't . There is a lot of hot water for him right now in the GOM

Well, according to 970 WFLA in Tampa this morning, if Ernesto did reach Tampa, it would be nothing more than a thunderstorm, so we are completely in the clear.

Personally, I think that was an irresponsible statement given that Tampa is still in the cone of uncertainty, a cone which still includes a stretch of warm water between Ernesto and Tampa and therefore the possibility (not probability) of something stronger than a thunderstorm reaching Tampa.

It seems reasonable given the model shift that the actual track will likely be west of current NHC thinking, since the NHC track is the outlier. Although, I understand that they move slowly so as not to make bit jumps from forecast to forecast. Still, although I don't expect much more than a thunderstorm and possibly some heavy winds in this area (maybe!), the media really should tell people to be prepared, no? This is exactly why everyone was so surprised with Charlie even though where he struck was within the cone...

Okay, I'll get off my rant now -- but, really guys, am I missing something here or was that a crazy statement by the media or what??

[O Town]

This is where Dvorak puts the estimated center as of now. We will have to wait till the 11 advisory and see where they put it.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Almost all the 12z models on that hurricane page take it inland all the way up between tampa and ponte gorde. That is an additional 12 hours of 88 degree water. This thing has unbelievable structure for just coming off of Cuba. If i lived as far north as Tampa, I would take precautions and making plans to leave just in case things continue to trend up the coast. IMO, the further W it gets before turning N, the stronger the Hurricane will be. Most of these strength guidance forecasts are based off of a storm coming ashore right up the spine. Please, don't let this be another charley...

All the "models" you see are the Useless BAMMS..

[gtalum]

That seems pretty close to the NHC track.

[StJoe]

Won't doubt formation of an eye pretty soon...

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

[gatorcane]

Is it me or is Ernesto really trying to get its act together now....doesn't look too hungover from his partying at Cuba last night...

[StJoe]

Is it me or is Ernesto really trying to get its act together now....doesn't look too hungover from his partying at Cuba last night...

He's really starting to pop now...