TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics Thread #6

[Trugunzn]

NAM shows a direct hit over Bewrmuda as a very intense storm:

[Scorpion]

If the center is where I think it is then we could be looking at a hurricane right now, if not very close.

[CrazyC83]

Rapid deepening underway?

[ConvergenceZone]

I'll admit, this is the best it's looked so far, but we'll have to wait and see if it can sustain itself. We've had too many false alarms this year.

[Bailey1777]

Off topic real quick what is that low in the Carribean?

[curtadams]

NAM is crazy bullish, so I'm not expecting a monster like that. It's pretty good with track, though (when there actually is something), so Bermuda should prepare.

[Scorpion]

I would say 110 kts for Bermuda sounds about right.

[CrazyC83]

I would say 110 kts for Bermuda sounds about right.

More bullish than I am! I am predicting 95 kt, with 110 kt as peak intensity north of Bermuda and 85-95 kt into Atlantic Canada.

[Trugunzn]

Hurricane Fabian kind of track??

[Thatsmrhurricane]

I am waiting . . . waiting for the it is past 60 past 62 past 65 . . . no N turn posts. The storm has moved from 49W to close to 60 only gaining 6 deg N. The forecast has it moving that many deg N from now to 800hrs tomorrow morning.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... shtml?5day

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ ... m16wv.html

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ ... m16ir.html

Fun to watch the highs break down and get squeezed.

[emeraldislencguy]

flrorence is looking better by the hour--dont tlel the people in Bermuda the seasonis over !!!!

[Zardoz]

Off topic real quick what is that low in the Carribean?

I don't know

Possibly our "sleeper" currently lurking at 9N 40W?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

[Meso]

You will first need to upload the picture onto http://www.imageshack.us or another image hosting site before HTML'ing it

[Derek Ortt]

still does not appear to be intensifying

this morning's organization may have been transient or an illusion

Its very large size must be what is keeping it from taking off. Visible still shows a large amount of inflow being directed to the east and not into the storm itself

[storms in NC]

sorry I can't get it to do right.

[gatorcane]

still does not appear to be intensifying

this morning's organization may have been transient or an illusion

Its very large size must be what is keeping it from taking off. Visible still shows a large amount of inflow being directed to the east and not into the storm itself

maybe that is why it is managing to stay WNW

[Derek Ortt]

the intensity has absolutely nothing to do with the movement in this case

People need to stop with this weak means west or weak means it moves with the low level flow. This is garbage.

Shallow means it moves with the low-level flow. This does not qualify as a shallow system, it is moving with the deeper steering flow

[flhurricaneguy]

if flo follows the bam models track it looks like she could pull a jeanne, anyone else notice this?

[ronjon]

It might help to look at the 700-400mb steering-level winds forecast for Florence to understand why it's not going to be an east U.S. coast threat:

Here's today. Note the high pressure over Florida and a much stronger high NE of Florence:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/florence29.gif

Now tomorrow. An even stronger high over Florida and a trof digging off the east U.S. Coast. Florence will take the easy way out and go north:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/florence30.gif

And just because I thought it would be interesting, look at next Friday's setup. Looks almost Wilma-esque as far as the flow pattern.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/florence31.gif

wxman57, a primer on steering flow for tropical cyclones I think would be very helpful to many on this board. Based on many threads I have parsed through, most readers do not really understand what guides these systems. And, by the way, good thing we don't have next Fridays pattern in place with Florence or we'd be packin up here in FL and the GOM.

[Damar91]

if flo follows the bam models track it looks like she could pull a jeanne, anyone else notice this?

Actually, I did. I just commented on this in another thread.