GOM/Caribbean/Atlantic Ocean SST'S and Anomalies

[miamicanes177]

Getting serious now. A rapid intensification over the last week in TCHP and SST's in the Atlantic has people very concerned, as they should be. 2007 is shaping up to be a horrific year.


2007 TCHP GOM:


2005 TCHP GOM:


2007 SST's GOM:


2005 SST's GOM:

[windstorm99]

Not sure what you mean by horrific but 2006 also had very warm SST'S and 90 percent of the tropical cyclone's that formed stated out to sea.I hopeing for a quite season as folks along the gulf coast are still trying to put there lives back together after katrina.Numbers are not important as the ones that actually hit land are the ones the have the greatest impact.SST'S play a significant role on tropical cyclone development but at the same time its only a small portion of things that have to be in place for a tropical cyclone to flurish.Adrian

www.Adrian's Weather.com

[miamicanes177]

Not sure what you mean by horrific but 2006 also had very warm SST'S and 90 percent of the tropical cyclone's that formed stated out to sea.I hopeing for a quite season as folks along the gulf coast are still trying to put there lives back together after katrina.Numbers are not important as the ones that actually hit land are the ones the have the greatest impact.SST'S play a significant role on tropical cyclone development but at the same time its only a small portion of things that have to be in place for a tropical cyclone to flurish.Adrian

www.Adrian's Weather.com

2006 featured a moderate El Nino event. El Nino is not expected in 2007. 2006 also had extreme SAL. 2007 is not expected to have an El Nino and wind shear is expected to drop to below average levels during July.

[windstorm99]

Not sure what you mean by horrific but 2006 also had very warm SST'S and 90 percent of the tropical cyclone's that formed stated out to sea.I hopeing for a quite season as folks along the gulf coast are still trying to put there lives back together after katrina.Numbers are not important as the ones that actually hit land are the ones the have the greatest impact.SST'S play a significant role on tropical cyclone development but at the same time its only a small portion of things that have to be in place for a tropical cyclone to flurish.Adrian

www.Adrian's Weather.com

2006 featured a moderate El Nino event. El Nino is not expected in 2007. 2006 also had extreme SAL. 2007 is not expected to have an El Nino and wind shear is expected to drop to below average levels during July.

Lets hope the all important steering currents are on our side.

[hawkeh]

I've been keeping an eye on the THCP content every other day and it really has increased a lot this past week or so, we may be in for a rough season if this keeps up?

Can anyone post the THCP image from the 05 season for the whole atlantic please?

[windstorm99]

I've been keeping an eye on the THCP content every other day and it really has increased a lot this past week or so, we may be in for a rough season if this keeps up?

Can anyone post the THCP image from the 05 season for the whole atlantic please?

I think its unlikely SST'S will reach 2005 levels across the atlantic basin.

2005-july1 Heat Potential



2007 july 1 2007



August 25-2005

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

It does appear that since jeff masters has indicated a possibility
a strong possibility for well below normal shear
into July...
Those caribbean oceanic heat contents are
VERY DISTURBING to me...if any storm
gets over that with the forecasted reduced
shear we could see very explosive
activity this year with the caribbean seeing
storms as strong if not stronger
than storms in 2005 if the shear lowers
as it is forecasted to do...
note that the subtropical jet gets
shunted further north leaving less shear
over the GOM and atlantic and caribbean
for that matter.
Folks these graphics are VERY VERY SCARY
to me and I am VERY WORRIED about a
very bad hurricane season for the caribbean
so folks in the caribbean i'd be prepared....

Note that much of the Caribbean ocean heat
content can now support sub-880 mb hurricanes:
http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[cpdaman]

lets see if the water is warm enough for our friend moving into a low shear eviornment at 8N 32W

[wxmann_91]

It does appear that since jeff masters has indicated a possibility
a strong possibility for well below normal shear
into July...
Those caribbean oceanic heat contents are
VERY DISTURBING to me...if any storm
gets over that with the forecasted reduced
shear we could see very explosive
activity this year with the caribbean seeing
storms as strong if not stronger
than storms in 2005 if the shear lowers
as it is forecasted to do...
note that the subtropical jet gets
shunted further north leaving less shear
over the GOM and atlantic and caribbean
for that matter.
Folks these graphics are VERY VERY SCARY
to me and I am VERY WORRIED about a
very bad hurricane season for the caribbean
so folks in the caribbean i'd be prepared....

Note that much of the Caribbean ocean heat
content can now support sub-880 mb hurricanes:
http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

I know your concern but it is important to relax right now. To get a redux of July 2005... is very unlikely. The conditions have to be perfect. The SST's aren't as hot right now as they were in 2005, to start. Also I think the background pressures are higher (I'll have to check into that to see if that's correct or not, though).

[miamicanes177]

The SST's aren't as hot right now as they were in 2005, to start.

SST's are warmer than 2005 in the areas that scare people the most, around land areas. Out in the open Atlantic the SST's are just slightly cooler, but warm enough to support development which is all that matters.

[Aric Dunn]

[Aric Dunn]

2005


2007




not too far off ... 3 weeks ago it was a big difference between 05 and 07 ... but now were are just about there...

[Aquawind]

It's kind of amazing how much the 2005 year is used for comparisons and will be for years to come. Not just for SSTs of course. The Gulf waters warmed for sure this week as the cloud cover was limited and the winds were light. The Bahamas had some cloud cover and more rain. I would expect to see even more warming anomalies on the weekly Reynolds graphics developed this last week for the most part and with a cooling in the central Atl were the +2F was. I certainly don't think SSTs are going to be a limiting factor in comparison to a average hurricane season and if the other factors like shear cooperate sure well above average is reasonable.

[Berwick Bay]

Miami said this

2006 featured a moderate El Nino event. El Nino is not expected in 2007. 2006 also had extreme SAL. 2007 is not expected to have an El Nino and wind shear is expected to drop to below average levels during July.

And for these reasons, I too come down on the side of an active 2007 and one oriented toward the continent and not out to sea. What I'm wondering is--when?? July is not historically a great determiner of what will happen later in the season. However, for 2005, it was July that set the stage for what was to follow. Both in number of storms, and it location and especially strength of storms, July 2005 was truly exceptional. But what about 07?? My own hunch now is that we should look out to about July 15 or so. (Early July actually less likely for development than mid June, historically speaking). Also, conditions are very hostile now in the western Basin, so if Masters is right, we'll probably need about two weeks or so to reverse that trend. I'm guessing that if 2007 is going to be active, that we might see some activity in late July, and not have to wait for early to mid August. My thinking here is that long term we are still in pretty much the same El Nino-La Nina Cycle. We have gone from moderate La Nina to mild El Nino, and now neutral with a tendency back toward mild La Nina. No big switches either way in the last couple of seasons. I see this as a long term neutral cycle, in which 04-05-06-07 are all part of that cycle. So I look for above average activity, and some early activity. Possible hurricane in the coastal waters later July.

[caribepr]

Tampa Bay...truthfully, you worry me more than any weather potentials. Maybe it is because I am old, maybe it is because I accept there is nothing I can do but be prepared and keep a careful eye on the weather. But I feel the stress of your fear/concern through your posts.
While your anxiousness is understandable from the point of view of what has happened in the recent past, I would seriously advise you to get some sort of outdoor hobby...working with little kids this summer at a day camp in your area, or if that is not feasible, doing weekend activities with needy kids, like a big brother/big sister group? It is important to concentrate on the life we are living, while being as prepared as possible for the life to come, be it days, weeks, months or years from now.
The reality is, each day is precious. We may get 100's of them. How wasteful to lose even one worrying (to the point of being frozen in the headlights) about what may or may not happen! Hope for the best!!! Prepare for the worst, and in the meantime, live each day of your life. Because... 97.3 %...it's BEAUTIFUL!!!

[wxmann_91]

It's kind of amazing how much the 2005 year is used for comparisons and will be for years to come. Not just for SSTs of course. The Gulf waters warmed for sure this week as the cloud cover was limited and the winds were light. The Bahamas had some cloud cover and more rain. I would expect to see even more warming anomalies on the weekly Reynolds graphics developed this last week for the most part and with a cooling in the central Atl were the +2F was. I certainly don't think SSTs are going to be a limiting factor in comparison to a average hurricane season and if the other factors like shear cooperate sure well above average is reasonable.

I think it's human nature (so I'm blaming nobody) to make comparisons with extreme outliers. For instance (and I'm guilty of this too sometimes), the 4/3/74 date always pops up when a model shows some type of synoptically-evident severe wx outbreak, even though we all know that such an outbreak probably won't happen again in our lifetimes. Well, same with tropical wx. The events in 2005 were unprecedented... very low surface pressures through the season, high atmospheric instability, weak Date Line convection and extratropical impedement WRT shear, etc etc. Such a repeat is unlikely to happen again in our lifetimes.

And caribepr, I could not have said it better myself. Great post.

[Cyclenall]

Also I think the background pressures are higher (I'll have to check into that to see if that's correct or not, though).

I was wondering if there was a why to "measure" that or not. How do to compare something like that to other years? I think the only way would be a map of some sort like SST maps to show the background pressures.

['CaneFreak]

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 3.1999.gif

Check this out folks: we had a La Nina year in 1999 and this is what the SST anomalies looked like in early July...then flip over to September of 1999.....WOW...what a difference!!!

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 7.1999.gif

BTW...this is just an observation....

[wxmann_91]

Also I think the background pressures are higher (I'll have to check into that to see if that's correct or not, though).

I was wondering if there was a why to "measure" that or not. How do to compare something like that to other years? I think the only way would be a map of some sort like SST maps to show the background pressures.

There is a way...

June 2007 data will take some time to come out, but here was June 2005 data. Needless to say, it speaks for itself.

(map from http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/Composites/printpage.pl )

[Cyclenall]

There is a way...

June 2007 data will take some time to come out, but here was June 2005 data. Needless to say, it speaks for itself.

(map from http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/Composites/printpage.pl )

*cut*

That page is too confusing to use to get the data I want. Can we compare May 2005 and May 2007 then?