Analysis,Models,Sat Pics of Low in Western Atlantic

[cpdaman]

east hatteras bouy 11pm sustained winds at 50 mph gusts to 66mph pressure down to 29.70 next update 15 min

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html moving right over bouy soon

[GeneratorPower]

That water vapor loop is absolutely beautiful. Such perfect, sweeping contours. Whatever it is, it's neat.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41001

54 knot one minute winds, with 69 knot gust. Very strong one minute winds, more like a warmer core system with the high one minute winds.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The sst's under this is only 67 degrees. The whole western Atlatnic but the gulf stream is to cold for tropical development. I don't know if this supposed to be normal or not.

[kevin]

Its organizing, the pressure is dropping and its diving towards the south. I expect this to be named tomorrow.

[Coredesat]

Its organizing, the pressure is dropping and its diving towards the south. I expect this to be named tomorrow.

Now now, hold your horses, it's still cold core, frontal, and there's no deep convection near the center. That blue isn't deep convection. There's 30 kt of mid-level and 50 kt of upper-level shear over the system, and it's over 17-20C SSTs. Also, there's a substantial dry slot:



The strengthening it's undergoing appears to be baroclinic for now, and it won't be over favorable SSTs for a couple more days. I hate to be a party pooper, but this isn't going to be anything until then.

[kevin]

I noticed the dry air intrusion right after posting that.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The sst's under it are way to cold to support tropical cyclone formation. In fact the wind field is becoming more broad, and also 40-50 knot wind shear. I would say a 20 percent chance of this being named at all, over the next 3-4 days.

[Coredesat]

I noticed the dry air intrusion right after posting that.

Yeah, that has to go away for now. It'll probably look impressive on vis tomorrow, though.

[jrod]

The buoy 150nm east of Cape Hatteras picked up a gust of 70knots with waves over 30 feet. With a storm that stirred up the ocean so fast my concern is for mariners trapped out there.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=41001&meas=wdpr&uom=E

[kevin]

995mb. How low is this forecast to go?

[wxman57]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41001

54 knot one minute winds, with 69 knot gust. Very strong one minute winds, more like a warmer core system with the high one minute winds.

Strong winds don't make this a warm core low. It's purely cold core all the way now. Plenty of cold dry air flowing into the center off the SE US coast. Such lows CAN become TS/STS, but such a transition takes quite a number of days. This low won't be offshore long enough for such a transition to occur, most likely.

[cpdaman]

sliding SW this strom had bouy 41001 at 1250 and 150

sustained at at 60mph and gusts to past hurricane force 78 mph wow then it eased up as storm slid SW

MODEL SUITE HAS SLOWLY CONVERGED ON A MORE SOUTHERLY...NAM-LIKE
SOLN FOR THE COASTAL LOW. with the storm going inland on WEDnesday around GA/sc border and may end up in North. florida as a weakened shadow of it's self

995 mb as of 4am

per 4 am charleston SC noaa discusion

swell forecast now to be 15 feet at a 13 second interval in the palm beaches delray beach and north lake worth inlet will be amazing

[jdray]

AFD Jax:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
308 AM EDT MON MAY 7 2007

...NOR`EASTER TO BRING WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY...

.SHORT TERM...VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED
OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE WITH CURRENT PRESSURE READING NEAR 995
MB. MEANWHILE...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS ENVELOPED MUCH OF
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WITH PRESSURE READINGS EXCEEDING 1035
MB OVER PORTIONS OF THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THIS HAS BROUGHT A
VERY TIGHT NORTHERLY GRADIENT OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH CURRENT
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH ACROSS OUR COASTAL COUNTIES...WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.

AFOREMENTIONED LOW IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE SOUTH OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS TODAY WITH PRESSURE RISES CONTINUING OVER THE MAINLAND. AS
A RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN WIND ADVISORIES FOR COASTAL COUNTIES...WITH
LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS IMPACTING INTERIOR COUNTIES BY MID-
MORNING. MSAS ANALYSIS INDICATES MUCH DRIER AIR IS FILTERING IN
FROM THE NORTH...WITH CURRENT DEWPOINT READINGS AROUND 35 ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN-MOST COUNTIES. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS
FOR TODAY BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS FLAGLER
COUNTY AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN ST. JOHNS COUNTY TODAY WHERE DEWPOINT
READINGS WILL BE HIGHEST COUPLED WITH WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
SURFACE MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE.

TONIGHT...VIGOROUS LOW IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE SOUTH OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS...WITH LOCAL WINDS EXPECTED TO BACK FROM NORTHEAST
TO NORTH. THIS WOULD MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
WILL CONTINUE WIND ADVISORY FOR COASTAL COUNTIES WITH LAKE WIND
ADVISORY FOR MOST 1ST TIER INTERIOR COUNTIES.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LATEST COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS
SURFACE LOW TOWARDS THE LOCAL COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY AND IF THIS
SCENARIO IS REALIZED...WOULD BRING BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO AT LEAST
EASTERN HALF OF JAX CWA BY WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS IN
RESPONSE TO THIS...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SHARP RAINFALL
DISTRIBUTION IF LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS JUST OFFSHORE. WILL MAINTAIN
LAKE WIND/WIND ADVISORIES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL UNCERTAIN AND RESIDENTS OF
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SHOULD MONITOR FUTURE
FORECASTS.

[HURAKAN]

07/0545 UTC 33.3N 72.5W ST2.5/2.5 90L -- Atlantic Ocean

Invest 90L anyone?!?!?!?!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[cycloneye]

07/0545 UTC 33.3N 72.5W ST2.5/2.5 90L -- Atlantic Ocean

Invest 90L anyone?!?!?!?!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

I posted in your post the link from where you got the information.

[Extremeweatherguy]

so this is 90L now?

[HURAKAN]

so this is 90L now?

It's not yet in NRL, but it could be in a few more hours.

[cycloneye]

so this is 90L now?

Not yet.Until the models start runs it wont be up at NRL.But this dvorak data is a hint that they are thinking to pop it later today.

[HURAKAN]

It looks non-tropical, but beautiful!!!