Tropical Wave in Western Caribbean

[HUC]

Ok,certainly,because of my not well known of english,ther is somsthing i cannot understandto post images or links.......
Here the wind abated,what is a confirmation that the winds are related to the squalls,and in my opinion,not at this time to a closed circulation.Baro is 1014,and rising slowly.
Wattch this system in the northen islands for some heavy rains and strong TS ...

[ronjon]

Don't just love the rainbow SAT views - so vivid. This thing looks like a monster - the MJO pulse really has bumped this one up.

[Ola]

^It can't move north right now, its not going to just plow through that ULL to its north. It has no choice but to move WNW.

Oh and Stormcenter, id argue that if it were to develop into a depression tonight, it would develop where all the convection right now is firing, which is SW of PR.

ULL do not steer shallow systems like this wave. In any case, if it did, it would actually allow for a system to move in that direction. Systems have a hard time "plowing" through high pressure, not low presure. This wave is steered by low level flow anyways.

[tolakram]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr/loop-bd.html

Where's a good guide to reading dvorak views?

[TheRingo]

this is being pushed north by the ridge filling in from it's east. the cmc might be on to something.

[vaffie]

Down two millibars from yesterday to 1011.7 at one of the buoys in the East Caribbean at 15.0N, 67.5W. This will be an important buoy to watch because the storm is heading in that direction.


19/21 42059 15.0 -67.5 27.4 24.0 080 4 G 6 090 8 1011.7 -1.0 28.7 1.5 8 42059

http://coolwx.com/buoydata/regions/carib.html

[Aric Dunn]

there is no low yet.. but there is some evidence it may be trying to form north of PR..

the red line is the wave axis.. (roughly..)

the white arrows are the storm motions.. (roughly)

PR radar is much more clear then the sat.. although the sat looks impressive.. it still need a little more time

when ever you get this much convection.. it really needs to be watch .. because this can change fast..

[ronjon]

I have to say that none of the global models have this convective cluster intialized very well or at all. My two cents is that if it stays weak it gets steered W-NW toward Cuba over the next several days or that it splits in two with one mass headed north and the other headed west across the caribbean. If it develops into a tropical cyclone, the CMC guidance looks as good as anything right now by having it pulled northward by the trough off the east coast.

[Category 5]

This is a very impressive looking "blob", it's the most impressive flare up since barry in fact.

Question is, where will it go,

[KFDM Meteorologist]

East Coast trof gets it.

[alan1961]

just a flare up to get us all exited until it dies down again, and its happening late afternoon early evening again, how many times have we seen this happening over the last few weeks, but if it gets going i'll eat those words!

[punkyg]

just a flare up to get us all exited until it dies down again

I'm with ya!

[Aric Dunn]

typical

[miamicanes177]

the flareup will need to die off quickly or this will be the next invest very soon.

[Aric Dunn]

[Recurve]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

With such a deep mid-lat trough forecast, if this develops or continues as a convective cluster NW and is north of Cuba it likely gets picked up as surface winds in the Straits become westerly.

The marked radar image really helps. But I'll make a WAG that a surface low might take shape around 15N 65W, I know that's much south of the convection. But I think there's a kink there convection could center around, only if shear is very low. No idea now about LL steering that far south.

Really be interesting to watch the buoys in the area. That would be outside NOAA NDBC system I'm guessing. Thanks for info on pressure trends there!

[cycloneye]

Radar Loop



There is a little bit of turning north of San Juan,where the wave axis is located.

[HURAKAN]

Looks impressive, nonetheless, it has to persist.

[Aric Dunn]

Radar Loop



There is a little bit of turning north of San Juan,where the wave axis is located.

if a low closes off that is where it would be expected.. at the northern end of the wave axis.. where the most curved wind field..is ie. everything but a SW wind..

[wxman57]

What we're following here is a moderately strong tropical wave along about 66W-67W that is moving westward at 12-15 mph. The northernmost part of the wave is interacting with an upper-level trof that dips down to the northern Dominican Republic. It's this interaction that is producing the increased convection across the NE Caribbean. But the lower pressure is south of 15N close to 14N/67W (just southeast of the buoy). Pressures down there are 1011-1012mb, as opposed to 1014-1016mb north of PR. There's no LLC, just a wave axis.

So, what's going to happen with this system? There are a few possibilities:

1. The area of lower pressure tracks westward between 14N/16N, eventually into Nicaragua as suggested by low-level steering winds. Once it passes the upper trof axis, there won't be much to produce convergence so convection will drop off. As it moves over Central America/southern Mexico (and the southern Yucatan), convection may re-fire. Storms may develop in the BoC and track NNW much like the wave ahead of it, bringing more moisture to Texas next week. This is probably the most likely scenario.



2. Second possibility. Somehow, the convection near the NE Caribbean gets strong enough that it's able to maintain itself and is drawn into the upper-level low to the NNW. Convection persists and eventually an LLC may form. Tropical development could eventually occur, but a trof digging off the east U.S. coast should carry the system northward and out to sea. This is what the Canadian model has been forecasting (no other model, though).



I don't see these storms near the NE Caribbean tracking WNW toward Florida or the SE U.S., as the only reason they're there is due to the interaction with the upper-level trof axis, which isn't moving westward. Most likely, convection will continue to diminish as the wave axis tracks west, and the system could eventually bring more heavy rain to the TX coast.