Invest 99L in Central Atlantic

[Cyclone1]

The GFS never developed 96L. At all.

[Normandy]

^it was right, 96L never was anything.

[Cyclone1]

Haha, but that's the point I was making. It was kind of a half way response to the last post on page 11.

[cheezyWXguy]

18z GFS coming out now, and up to 48 hours as of the moment. It still keeps the idea of a depression forming, showing a closed 1009mb low in 48hrs...however, I believe it may have initalized wrong, showing that at 0hr, it is already a closed 1012 low..nontheless, we should still watch to see how the rest of the run comes out

[windstorm99]

2 TD'S on the 18z GFS out till 84hrs....

[Cyclone1]

Wow, 2? I find that a little... farfetched.

[windstorm99]

96hrs...

[Weatherfreak14]

Nah its only one TD. from what i see i think hes talkin about another wave cming off the coast behind it.

[Cyclone1]

1005, that's the strongest our future cyclone has been so far.

[cycloneye]

As I see the runs,it seems that what GFS and other models are showing is not what the members think it is meaning that area of convection around 35w.I think it's another wave behind that the models are latching to.

[canes04]

It looks like are wave at 33w is showing signs of organization.
We may see a TD in 48hrs.

[cheezyWXguy]

As I see the runs,it seems that what GFS and other models are showing is not what the members think it is meaning that area of convection around 35w.I think it's another wave behind that the models are latching to.

Thats just it though...there's nothing else out there, just some scattered convection...the GFS initializes with a closed 1012 mb low just south of the CV islands..I think it just initialized too far west..

[Weatherfreak14]

18Z GFS model is now showing it becoming weaker a 162 hrs and looks to be moving northwestward..

[Sanibel]

I've come to the opposite conclusion. Our 32W wave is curving only because of coincidence and its location on the east edge of a broader low amplitude wave circulation associated with a broad Low. I'm now thinking it is nothing and nothing will come from it.

[canegrl04]

1005, that's the strongest our future cyclone has been so far.

Not much further for a TD. I also believe it will be one sometime on Friday. Should be INVEST98 sometime tonight

[windstorm99]

1005, that's the strongest our future cyclone has been so far.

Not much further for a TD. I also believe it will be one sometime on Friday. Should be INVEST98 sometime tonight

Actually iam seeing convection on the decrease with this wave.

[canegrl04]

1005, that's the strongest our future cyclone has been so far.

Not much further for a TD. I also believe it will be one sometime on Friday. Should be INVEST98 sometime tonight

Actually iam seeing convection on the decrease with this wave.

Doesn't that tend to happen with systems during the overnight hours?

[cheezyWXguy]

It tends to decrease in the morning or late afternoon/evening hours, but overnight it tends to flare up, as that is when the diurnal max is

[Recurve]

It tends to decrease in the morning or late afternoon/evening hours, but overnight it tends to flare up, as that is when the diurnal max is

The heat is on all day...at night moist warm air rises and cools the most...pressure trends lower....overnight is most conducive for convection in the tropics, as I understand it.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE INTRODUCED ALONG 27W S OF 17N MOVING W
ABOUT 15 KT. THERE ARE SEVERAL INDICATIONS OF THIS WAVE. 1...A
WEAK SIGNAL IS NOTED IN THE DAKAR SOUNDING BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z
ON THE 23RD. 2...A SIGNAL IS NOTED IN THE SAL SOUNDING BETWEEN
12Z ON THE 24TH AND 00Z ON THE 25TH MAINLY IN 850-900 MB LEVEL.
3...A 1946Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS A WEAK CIRCULATION CENTERED W OF
THE CAPE VERDES NEAR 13N27W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 25W-28W.


8 PM Discussion from TPC

I mentioned earlier that what the models were showing was not what the members were watching around 32w,but a new wave further back and this new wave was introduced back in longitud at this 8 PM TWD.To not make a new thread for another Eastern Atlantic wave,let's continue the discussions here about this new wave.



Interesting that quickscat showing the area just westsouthwest of the Cape Verde Islands.