Tropical Wave in Western GOM

[wx247]

Just my luck. Of all the weeks of the year this thing decides to dump buckets of rain on my vacation to Galveston!! grrr....

[Sanibel]

Some burst out there! Hmmm. This is most likely a tropical system being prevented from forming by shear but it keeps trying.

Wish we had radar from the center of that last deep burst (not moving too fast either).

[sunny]

Just my luck. Of all the weeks of the year this thing decides to dump buckets of rain on my vacation to Galveston!! grrr....

I guess your trip through Nawlins as well

[Wx_Warrior]

Wow....Crazy rain in Beaumont. We are hosting the AFA National Softball Tournament thru Sat....

[Normandy]

Looking at the sat presentation today, I can say with certainty it has progressed and is now a much better defined disturbance. Checking out the high res vis satellite one can see good inflow into the system (its more southern portions, ESE of Brownsville) from the SW and SE. If any low were to form, it would be there and would likely track NNW crashing ashore somewhere near Galveston.

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html
Click the area ESE of Brownsville to see what im talking about.


My thinking today is similar to yesterdays, with this exception: I think this disturbance has a greater shot at forming some kind of tropical low now...however I still think this wont get designated TD 3 or Tropical Storm Chantal. Regardless, SE Texas is in trouble. Big trouble. This could be a monster flooding event....and to make matters worse, this will arrive in the diurnal hours.

[Stormcenter]

Some burst out there! Hmmm. This is most likely a tropical system being prevented from forming by shear but it keeps trying.

Wish we had radar from the center of that last deep burst (not moving too fast either).

Yes that last deep burst does look interesting. It really does look something is "trying" to get
going but is having a hard time doing so thanks to the shear.

Hmmmm looking at this latest visible loop maybe just maybe things may be trying to come together.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[vaffie]

Putting aside its shortcomings for a moment, the 12Z CMC has joined the NAM to show a closed low forming out of it and making landfall at approximately Matagorda Bay in 30 hours from now (Friday evening).

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Also of interest--some of the storms to the north of it now have gusts to 40 mph.

[Normandy]

^I think its going to lift farther north than matagorda bay...but not surprised that its getting more model support. I think a closed low is much more likely today then it was yesterday.

Also, one has to remember this one certainty with sheared systems like these. You want the low to pass right over you. because in sheared systems, the core rains will be off the the east of where it comes ashore. Of course, that rule only applies if a low closes off.

[tailgater]

This is sort of old but Quick-scat
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/img ... ap?414,206

[Brent]

Quite a flareup... and it hasn't moved much since yesterday.

[vaffie]

This is sort of old but Quick-scat
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/img ... ap?414,206

Thanks Brent, excellent, detailed picture, and it's not old--it's just 40 minutes ago. Shows some winds just to the southwest of the big ball of convection now have a westerly component for the first time and are blowing from the SW--look at 24.0N, 95.2W. It is very likely that a low is closing off now. Many of the squalls to it's north and northeast now have winds to 50 knots. Everyone in the Texas and Louisiana coasts should be watching this tonight.

[tailgater]

This is sort of old but Quick-scat
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/img ... ap?414,206

Thanks Brent, excellent, detailed picture, and it's not old--it's just 40 minutes ago. Shows some winds just to the southwest of the big ball of convection now have a westerly component for the first time and are blowing from the SW--look at 24.0N, 95.2W. It is very likely that a low is closing off now. Many of the squalls to it's north and northeast now have winds to 50 knots. Everyone in the Texas and Louisiana coasts should be watching this tonight.[/quote

I see some fairly strong winds but nothing out of the N or West, and this is from this morning, 1157 UTC if I'm reading this correctly.

[Frank2]

It is very likely that a low is closing off now. Many of the squalls to it's north and northeast now have winds to 50 knots.

Let's remember the disclaimer:

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

P.S. Don't mean to be a wet blanket, but, in case some read your previous post and think that what you are saying is coming from the NHC or NWS (nothing has been mentioned from them, per your statement)...

[Dave C]

Delete

[Frank2]

Link doesn't work...

[T-man]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42002

Try this.

[Steve]

I'm not entirely sure, but my bet is that the explosive convection to the east of the energy source (new term from me) may be the northern end of the 2nd tropical wave interacting with the system.

[Stormcenter]

I think this "disturbance" in the W.GOM still has an uphill battle
trying to form into something more than what is right
now. We shall see.

[jasons2k]

Here's the thing I notice on the QS --

Yesterday all the barbs were parallel to each other. Nothing but SE winds. Now there's an arc to them, as if a system is *trying* to close off.

I still don't think it actually will, but if I wake-up tomorrow to an invest I would not be surprised.

[wxman57]

This is sort of old but Quick-scat
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/img ... ap?414,206

Thanks Brent, excellent, detailed picture, and it's not old--it's just 40 minutes ago. Shows some winds just to the southwest of the big ball of convection now have a westerly component for the first time and are blowing from the SW--look at 24.0N, 95.2W. It is very likely that a low is closing off now. Many of the squalls to it's north and northeast now have winds to 50 knots. Everyone in the Texas and Louisiana coasts should be watching this tonight.[/quote

I see some fairly strong winds but nothing out of the N or West, and this is from this morning, 1157 UTC if I'm reading this correctly.

Note that the QuikSCAT image was from 11:57Z, as it says in purple near the bottom of the image. I'll draw up a surface analysis of the Gulf, but pressures out there have been steadily rising all day. No sign of a low at the surface. I can see a mid-level spin just offshore east of Corpus Christi. It's heading north rapidly and should be inland overnight, as will much of the convection. A rainy night and day tomorrow for SE TX.