Invest 99L East of Windwards #3

[gatorcane]

it does look pretty ragged right now but look at the moisture that it is starting to suck in from just farther south. I'm not giving up on this thing. I still thing it will form into a depression over the next day or so.....

[Ivanhater]

hard times right now for 99L...but I'm going to say in about 6 to 7 hours will we start to see a little burst starting...if Im wrong Im wrong

[tolakram]

Looking at the water vapor loop I see that while areas to the north have moistened up a tad the dry air has also made inroads behind the invest. Might this spark increased convection later?

[skysummit]

A very well respected individual in the tropics has said development will be slow in the short term, but he is giving a good chance at development once it crosses the Islands. That sounds reasonable to me.

[Cyclone1]

jrod said: The dvorak still shows some spin. I am going to predict it will refire before 2300EDT tonight. Im guessing right now the blob to the south of it is 'robbing' energy from the invest.


Darn those blobs.

[Brent]

A very well respected individual in the tropics has said development will be slow in the short term, but he is giving a good chance at development once it crosses the Islands. That sounds reasonable to me.

I agree with that... the Eastern Caribbean has been a prime spot the last few years.

[RL3AO]

I just want to point this out. Right now it is near 58W and will be getting into water with more heat potential soon.

[skysummit]

Convection has been slowly increasing in the area around 99L over the past couple hours or so. If that can happen, then it can surely happen near the circulation. I think it may re-fire a little earlier than I previously thought which was between 7pm and 12am tonight CDT.

[punkyg]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/avn-l.jpg

It looks like the blob to the south of 99L is apart of it.

[Meso]

12z cmc

[Ivanhater]

Convection has been slowly increasing in the area around 99L over the past couple hours or so. If that can happen, then it can surely happen near the circulation. I think it may re-fire a little earlier than I previously thought which was between 7pm and 12am tonight CDT.

ahh..feels good to see that word in relation to this system! its the little things in life...

[windstorm99]

The dry air is just to much in my opinion and should keep 99L and whats behind it in check for the next couple of days.

[Cyclone1]

The models still develop this, so it can't be dead.

[punkyg]

12z cmc

Looks like a storm in the bay of campeche and a storm moving out to sea.

[RL3AO]

One thing for sure with this system is that if it does become Dean, it won't jump from TS to Cat 3 in 48 hours. Maybe a moderate storm into the middle Caribbean. Of course this is way in the future.

[Cyclone1]

That storm moving out to sea is apparently the Gulf blob.

[punkyg]

That storm moving out to sea is apparently the Gulf blob.

What gulf blob
and does it move over florida?!?!?!

[Cyclone1]

That storm moving out to sea is apparently the Gulf blob.

What gulf blob
and does it move over florida?!?!?!

It's the blob in the northeast Gulf right now, and the models don't show it hitting Sanford. It looks like it's gonna head north over the panhandle.

[skysummit]

A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 12N51W...POSSIBLY SPAWNED BY THE RE-LOCATED
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 59W...IS CENTERED ABOUT 520 NM E OF THE SRN
WINDWARD ISLANDS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME OVERALL WEAKENING
OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH CLOUD TOPS WARMING
NEAR THE CENTER AND THE OVERALL CIRCULATION APPEARING RAGGED.
HOWEVER...THE WINDOW FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT STILL EXISTS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[skysummit]

The 12z GFDL no longer dissipates it....

566
WHXX04 KWBC 311725
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 99L

INITIAL TIME 12Z JUL 31

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 11.2 50.8 285./12.0
6 11.5 52.0 284./12.1
12 12.1 53.6 289./16.6
18 12.3 55.7 276./20.7
24 12.7 57.6 282./19.3
30 12.9 59.7 276./20.0
36 12.9 61.9 270./21.8
42 13.0 63.8 272./18.6
48 13.1 66.0 273./21.0
54 13.7 67.9 286./19.4
60 13.3 70.6 262./26.9
66 13.3 72.9 270./22.5
72 13.0 74.8 263./18.7
78 13.2 76.3 277./14.2
84 13.1 78.1 266./17.8
90 13.5 79.9 283./17.9
96 13.4 81.2 267./12.9
102 13.7 82.7 280./14.4
108 13.8 84.0 273./13.0
114 13.9 85.6 276./15.3
120 13.3 87.4 250./18.7
126 13.2 88.6 268./11.2