Invest 99L,Near Windwards,Thread #4

[Stratosphere747]

I don't know if anyone realizes, but there are now two recon missions scheduled. 98L was pushed back a bit and GOM has one planned.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED AUG 1 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR ESPECIALLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD NEAR 15 TO 20 MPH. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER DEVELOPMENT
OCCURS...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SQUALLS TO THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

THE LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND NOVA SCOTIA IS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. FORMATION INTO A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT EXPECTED.

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN OLD FRONTAL
ZONE. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN

[windstorm99]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 011500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT WED 01 AUGUST 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z AUGUST 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-070

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 02/1600Z
B. AFXXX 02DDA INVEST
C. 02/1400Z
D. 14.0N 65.5W
E. 02/1500Z TO 02/2000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES
AT 03/1200Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS: THIS MISSION ORIGINALLY SCHEDULED FOR 02/1200Z
HAS BEEN SLIPPED TO 02/1600Z.

4. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 02/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01EEA INVEST
C. 02/1730Z
D. 29.0N 88.0W
E. 02/1745Z TO 02/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO
A. 03/1200,1800Z
B. AFXXX 02EEA CYCLONE
C. 03/1030Z
D. 30.0N 88.0W
E. 03/1045Z TO 03/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
5. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.

II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

[miamicanes177]

As expected by the NHC, 99L has become better organized in a favorable environment and a tropical depression is forming.

[punkyg]

like it any one

[Ivanhater]

So when did conditions not become all that favorable? To me it became more favorable with less dry air...but NHC still thinks it could become a depression soon

[Fego]

Btw anybody from Barbados here?

[Derek Ortt]

finally it was stated that the environment is not that favorable for TC formation. Still could see something within the next 24 here

[dwg71]

99L is not on the verge of TD status, no more than it was 24-36 hours or so ago. I would not be surprised if recon is cancelled. The convection that fired earlier is racing west away from the system and will begin to die off. This is still a long way away from TC status. I give it 20% of development to get to Dean with 99L.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

[Fego]

I don't get it, now that the NHC say Invest 99L is better organized, then "ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR ESPECIALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT" .

[Derek Ortt]

conditions were never favorable for development. I did not understand why the outlooks kept saying favorable. If they were favorable, this would have likely become a TS by now

also recon is not cancelled this afternoon

[Fego]

I don't get it, now that the NHC say Invest 99L is better organized, then "ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR ESPECIALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT" .

[tailgater]

Latest obs from Barbados
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TBPB.html

[Ivanhater]

99L is not on the verge of TD status, no more than it was 24-36 hours or so ago. I would not be surprised if recon is cancelled. The convection that fired earlier is racing west away from the system and will begin to die off. This is still a long way away from TC status. I give it 20% of development to get to Dean with 99L.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

They would have already cancelled recon if they were going too...its a go for today...

[MiamiensisWx]

I think we should cut the chatter and make some constructive posts. I would appreciate some enjoyable analyses. The overall conditions have been generally quite unfavorable, but I think that fact will change. Currently, environmental conditions look better than yesterday - watch the anticyclone as it builds over the Caribbean and Antilles. The system's structure has improved - the anticyclone would permit slow organization. I think it could provide a better environment for upward convective "pulses", especially because of the stronger sfc convergence. Now the system will have upper-air support. The latest loop indicates the presence of good inflow - this system is improving its organization. I think development will occur slowly - I do think it will develop to a TC in the Caribbean. Additionally, convection has consolidated near the MLC. What do you think? I'm offering my two cents.

[Lowpressure]

This system concerns me more once it hits the Yucatan channel. If it holds together through the Carib, it could be a player entering the Gulf in 4-5 days.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Latest obs from Barbados
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TBPB.html

heavy showers with an east wind at 35mph gusting to 58mph? That doesn't sound too pleasant..

[x-y-no]

This system concerns me more once it hits the Yucatan channel. If it holds together through the Carib, it could be a player entering the Gulf in 4-5 days.

It could be, but for now a more southerly route is most likely.

[tailgater]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED AUG 1 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR ESPECIALLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD NEAR 15 TO 20 MPH. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER DEVELOPMENT
OCCURS...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SQUALLS TO THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

THE LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND NOVA SCOTIA IS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. FORMATION INTO A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT EXPECTED.

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN OLD FRONTAL
ZONE. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN

ZZZZZZZZZZZZ *^$& Is it August yet?

[x-y-no]

12Z GFS is starting - again only initializes a weak open wave. (Not saying that's entirely wrong)

Tonight's 0z run will have the recon data.