2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1304896913284702208

[SFLcane]

Here is the wave some of the guidance is developing.

[St0rmTh0r]

Here is the wave some of the guidance is developing.

https://i.postimg.cc/13Ngm6cM/63-D44-C38-13-B6-47-F4-B49-B-D0-A8-F47282-F5.jpg

What's that behind it?

[StPeteMike]

Here is the wave some of the guidance is developing.

https://i.postimg.cc/13Ngm6cM/63-D44-C38-13-B6-47-F4-B49-B-D0-A8-F47282-F5.jpg

What's that behind it?

Hurricane Alpha likely

[StPeteMike]

ICON has a Gulfbrew shortly after Sally starts moving out and looks like another system just off the coast of the Carolinas at the same time https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1300&fh=51

[jlauderdal]

12z Euro a tad weaker has a TC moving into the Caribbean.

https://i.postimg.cc/HsRgSmtr/4-C795-F80-EF37-4-DD0-B4-B9-E402-DCC0-ECA0.gif

Is that a cold front actually making it all the way through Florida into the straights in late-September!?

cold fronts only make it through south Florida in late September on model runs, the reality is they get hung up around orlando

[SFLcane]

Global much less enthusiastic about development with this next wave and EPS long range is fairly quite.

Edit: Now with 0-20% development in 5 days by NHC.

[chaser1]

Quiet models = no bueno. I see long range models suggesting quiet as much more worrisome. As long as Africa can keep pumping out East and Central Atlantic storms, us mammals west of 60W should be marginally safe. Beyond Paulette's risk to Bermuda, I think we're just at that point where we are seeing a good deal more meridianal troughing over the CONUS and Atlantic overall and the dominant strong mid level heights across the Atlantic have weakened and become far more cellular allowing for weaknesses to form between them. As such, eastern MDR systems will have a hard time traversing the entire Atlantic before re-curving. As I see it, additional tropical cyclones developing well east of 50W will remain eye-candy. On the other hand, tropical waves that remain under the radar and not developing until reaching the Caribbean or just north of the Greater Antilles (i.e. Sally) will be those posing any landfall concern moving forward. Prediction: After Sally ..... the next landfall will mark the beginning of this years' Greek Festival

[TheStormExpert]

According to the 12z GFS we might have to watch the area near Bermuda in 8-10 days from the trough that pushes TD #20 OTS for Subtropical or Tropical development.

[TheStormExpert]

Quiet models = no bueno. I see long range models suggesting quiet as much more worrisome. As long as Africa can keep pumping out East and Central Atlantic storms, us mammals west of 60W should be marginally safe. Beyond Paulette's risk to Bermuda, I think we're just at that point where we are seeing a good deal more meridianal troughing over the CONUS and Atlantic overall and the dominant strong mid level heights across the Atlantic have weakened and become far more cellular allowing for weaknesses to form between them. As such, eastern MDR systems will have a hard time traversing the entire Atlantic before re-curving. As I see it, additional tropical cyclones developing well east of 50W will remain eye-candy. On the other hand, tropical waves that remain under the radar and not developing until reaching the Caribbean or just north of the Greater Antilles (i.e. Sally) will be those posing any landfall concern moving forward. Prediction: After Sally ..... the next landfall will mark the beginning of this years' Greek Festival

We might see a VERY brief lull like we’ve seen a few times this season before the MJO moves back into our region late-September.

[chaser1]

Quiet models = no bueno. I see long range models suggesting quiet as much more worrisome. As long as Africa can keep pumping out East and Central Atlantic storms, us mammals west of 60W should be marginally safe. Beyond Paulette's risk to Bermuda, I think we're just at that point where we are seeing a good deal more meridianal troughing over the CONUS and Atlantic overall and the dominant strong mid level heights across the Atlantic have weakened and become far more cellular allowing for weaknesses to form between them. As such, eastern MDR systems will have a hard time traversing the entire Atlantic before re-curving. As I see it, additional tropical cyclones developing well east of 50W will remain eye-candy. On the other hand, tropical waves that remain under the radar and not developing until reaching the Caribbean or just north of the Greater Antilles (i.e. Sally) will be those posing any landfall concern moving forward. Prediction: After Sally ..... the next landfall will mark the beginning of this years' Greek Festival

We might see a VERY brief lull like we’ve seen a few times this season before the MJO moves back into our region late-September.

Yep, that's about the period that worries me. Course, that doesn't exclude the possibility of another "Sally" esq development between now and then but at least for now, it seems all the "loud barking dogs" are way down the street in someone's fenced yard LOL.

[LarryWx]

According to the 12z GFS we might have to watch the area near Bermuda in 8-10 days from the trough that pushes TD #20 OTS for Subtropical or Tropical development.

Another potential “ridge over troubled water” homegrown. Also, there are hints thus could form closer to the SE US and not be a definite OTS from the E coast. Long ways out.

[LarryWx]

Check out the 240 hour 12Z Euro for something that is interesting though it likely won't actually happen: Paulette ends up SE of future Teddy: yes, that's Paulette way out there near 30N, 44W!

[LarryWx]

Per 12Z EPS: watch for possible homegrown offshore the SE US next week. May never amount to any threat, but worth watching imo especially with it being La Niña.

[LarryWx]

A bigger concern to me than any current AEW, a potential follow-up to Sally "ridge over troubled water" homegrown next week similar to this, made more of a concern because of La Nina:

[TheStormExpert]

A bigger concern to me than any current AEW, a potential follow-up to Sally "ridge over troubled water" homegrown next week similar to this, made more of a concern because of La Nina:

https://i.imgur.com/NeTjcIk.png

So why is this more of a concern during a La Niña season versus an El Niño one?

[LarryWx]

A bigger concern to me than any current AEW, a potential follow-up to Sally "ridge over troubled water" homegrown next week similar to this, made more of a concern because of La Nina:

https://i.imgur.com/NeTjcIk.png

So why is this more of a concern during a La Niña season versus an El Niño one?

Because I believe that upper winds have a higher chance to return to favorable more quickly via the reestablishment of W Atl and E US/SE US ridging. That ridging in general is more prevalent during Niña vs Niño meaning generally lighter shear, especially as we get into the late season.

[Blinhart]

I haven't been paying attention to the models lately, do any of them have Rene re-energizing, or Sally reforming whenever/wherever she comes back off shore.

[SFLcane]

Not to much left of this capeverde season. We shall see if anything tries to get going in the Caribbean In October but I would not hold my breath.

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1305483780233351169

[Loveweather12]

Are you saying the season is over after September ?

Not to much left of this capeverde season. We shall see if anything tries to get going in the Caribbean In October but I would not hold my breath.

https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1305483780233351169?