2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[captainbarbossa19]

Ugly..

You sure la nina is in the epac?

https://i.postimg.cc/hjG1GTHv/shear.gif

This is reminding me of how hostile conditions generally were until we had Harvey form in the Gulf in 2017.

[SFLcane]

Ugly..

You sure la nina is in the epac?

https://i.postimg.cc/hjG1GTHv/shear.gif

That's still early August. Nothing unexpected IMO.

[SFLcane]

The CSU update next week will definitely be interesting next week.

How low will Phil go?

[Cpv17]

Ugly..

You sure la nina is in the epac?

https://i.postimg.cc/hjG1GTHv/shear.gif

That's still early August. Nothing unexpected IMO.

Exactly! What do people not understand about that? Lol

[gatorcane]

It doesn’t take a sophisticated model to know why the global models are not showing any development anytime soon. That is quite a SAL surge. Looks like nowhere in Florida has more than a 10% rain chance today which is unusual. But it is likely not going to look like that come one month from now so enjoy the quiet time while it lasts

[Category5Kaiju]

The recent trend has been showing some pretty appreciable MDR warming, as well as the Canary Current not being as cold as it was before...this looks pretty darn favorable for activity later next month if you had to ask me, assuming it holds.

[skyline385]

The recent trend has been showing some pretty appreciable MDR warming, as well as the Canary Current not being as cold as it was before...this looks pretty darn favorable for activity later next month if you had to ask me, assuming it holds.

Just my opinion but the scale the NOAA Coral Reef Watch uses makes it really hard to decipher between the anomalies. Here is the same from Alex’s site

[Category5Kaiju]

https://i.imgur.com/hxQhM4S.png

The recent trend has been showing some pretty appreciable MDR warming, as well as the Canary Current not being as cold as it was before...this looks pretty darn favorable for activity later next month if you had to ask me, assuming it holds.

Just my opinion but the scale the NOAA Coral Reef Watch uses makes it really hard to decipher between the anomalies. Here is the same from Alex’s site

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220728/9c00971eb07ae403414cbd6c07cd91d0.jpg

Well as you can see in both versions, there is consensus that the eastern MDR has indeed warmed up pretty nicely and the W. Atlantic remains solidly warm. The subtropical cold pool is still there, but in the context of warmer than average sst anomalies in the MDR, looks like we're at least on that particular track

[zzh]

I thought SST means nothing to some people I guess SST is big factor only if they are warm. It is not a big factor if it's cold

[NDG]

Was not sure were to leave this article but i thought it was interesting as it speaks about current and expected condtions across the tropical atlantic from John Morales

It’s all about perception, though. We’ve had three named storms so far, where the normal by this date is two. We’ve had zero hurricanes, where the normal by this date is also zero. You read that right—the first hurricane of the Atlantic season on average shows up by August 11. From this measure, the season is pretty much behaving as a hurricane season should

Despite Perceived Slow Start, 2022 Hurricane Season Behaving Normally

https://www.nbcmiami.com/weather/hurric ... y/2822047/

Compared to a normal year, yes, but during the past 30 years most very active seasons with La Nina present July was fairly active with at least several weak tropical storms and at least a hurricane by the end of July.
Based on activity so far this year it could end up like the Nina years of 1998, 1999, 2000, 2007 & 2016 that activity didn't really get going until mid to late August. The average ACE between those years is of 136 ACE.

[Category5Kaiju]

I thought SST means nothing to some people I guess SST is big factor only if they are warm. It is not a big factor if it's cold

Well, I think the way you can see it is that warm MDR sst anomalies can only help, not hurt.

[skyline385]

Todays weeklies show some activity for August end but nothing noteworthy in the precip plots. Something to keep in mind, the EURO site uses different scales for climo plot. The forecasted activity for August end is slightly higher than climo, most of the increased activity being in the Western Atlantic.

[captainbarbossa19]

Todays weeklies show some activity for August end but nothing noteworthy in the precip plots

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220728/eccafac6efad786517bda06768c5ae43.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220728/6a5f5303f6ba1020cf07966246846de9.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220728/fcf8dbb03e9c2090add2f0e6dead51d4.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220728/2ab790ca0207b46490270814501721bf.jpg

Yep. They will start to turn around in August. We have seen models go from showing nothing one week to storm after storm the next in August.

[Teban54]

I thought SST means nothing to some people I guess SST is big factor only if they are warm. It is not a big factor if it's cold

The point is that warmer MDR SSTAs are usually correlated with active seasons, but the lack of MDR warmth doesn't preclude one. Many years that met the hyperactive ACE threshold did not have crazy MDR SSTs, and likewise many years with warm SSTs underperformed.

MDR SSTA is a factor, but just one piece of the puzzle and not the sole factor for hyping or cancelling a season. Other factors, even those that deal with SSTs directly like the overall SSTA configuration and the tropopause, also matter.

In 2020 and 2021, when we had warmer SSTAs, people were using the subtropical warm pool to cancel the seasons. This year, when the subtropics is cool, people now cherrypick on MDR SSTs. Hmm.

[SFLcane]

New weeklies! Signs of life surely.

[SFLcane]

Oh boy!

[SoupBone]

Oh boy!

https://i.postimg.cc/rsmsGT6G/7-C06965-F-A5-A4-44-CE-9870-F8904-BDEAD18.jpg

I have no idea what I'm looking at. Explanation?

[Category5Kaiju]

Oh boy!

https://i.postimg.cc/rsmsGT6G/7-C06965-F-A5-A4-44-CE-9870-F8904-BDEAD18.jpg

I have no idea what I'm looking at. Explanation?

Stout east coast ridging. Meaning if anything forms in the open ocean and misses a trough, it could have a higher chance of hitting land, especially the CONUS

[SFLcane]

Oh boy!

https://i.postimg.cc/rsmsGT6G/7-C06965-F-A5-A4-44-CE-9870-F8904-BDEAD18.jpg

I have no idea what I'm looking at. Explanation?

If it sticks which it might very well do those 500mb heights are close if not the classic look to Conus strikes.

[ElectricStorm]

Oh boy!

https://i.postimg.cc/rsmsGT6G/7-C06965-F-A5-A4-44-CE-9870-F8904-BDEAD18.jpg

816 hours out