2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[WaveBreaking]

Presented without comment

https://i.imgur.com/wRoM3Cj.png

Can we not do this for a third time please

[floridasun]

6z GEFS has a few more members showing a strong hurricane crossing near the Yucatan Channel.

Please, can we just don't?

https://i.postimg.cc/L5V35HLy/gefs-2024-10-10-06-Z-336-36-788-260-804-9-343-301-634-MSLP-Surface-tracks-lows.png

gfs only one support system in nw carribbean now need more support before their put it on outlook

[jlauderdal]

Bernie speaks and he has been good.

https://x.com/AccuRayno/status/1844409625086656515

[SFLcane]

Icon onboard...

[SFLcane]

Bernie speaks and he has been good.

https://x.com/AccuRayno/status/1844409625086656515

 https://x.com/AccuRayno/status/1844409625086656515

[Weathertracker96]

Bernie speaks and he has been good.

https://x.com/AccuRayno/status/1844409625086656515

 https://x.com/AccuRayno/status/1844409625086656515

Would the high push anything down there into Central America ?

[Meteorcane]

Would the high push anything down there into Central America ?

Initially yes, anything would probably have a mostly westward component... but this time of year the pattern tends to be pretty progressive and ridges can break down relatively quickly. Another factor would be exactly how far north anything would form in the W.Carribbean, the further south the more likely it would get buried in Central America, whereas the further north it forms, the more likely it could feel a weakness and be drawn northward

[SFLcane]

12z GEFS control...

[Category5Kaiju]

12z GEFS control...

https://i.postimg.cc/rpnkJCw9/cccc.png

“How many more storms do you want to menace Tampa”

2024: “Yes.”

[Woofde]

12z GEFS control...

The fact that we may be facing another one is insane. ICON, GFS and it's ensembles supporting the idea does lend more credibility. CMC and Euro ensembles show a slight tick up in the region as well.

[floridasun]

12z GEFS control...

https://i.postimg.cc/rpnkJCw9/cccc.png

The fact that we may be facing another one is insane. ICON, GFS and it's ensembles supporting the idea does lend more credibility. CMC and Euro ensembles show a slight tick up in the region as well.

gfs of tropical tidbit dont show that show it going to northern gulf from middle of gulf

[Zonacane]

Regardless of eventual timing, landfall location, or intensity; It would appear things are favorable for tropical development in the NW Caribbean 

[Weathertracker96]

Would the high push anything down there into Central America ?

Initially yes, anything would probably have a mostly westward component... but this time of year the pattern tends to be pretty progressive and ridges can break down relatively quickly. Another factor would be exactly how far north anything would form in the W.Carribbean, the further south the more likely it would get buried in Central America, whereas the further north it forms, the more likely it could feel a weakness and be drawn northward

Thanks for answering. After seeing the GEFS control, I guess this is else to watch now. Milton caused flooding & damage in my area. Will be watching the model trends. Won’t be surprised if we get another lemon down there this weekend sigh..

[Soluna16]

12z GEFS control...

https://i.postimg.cc/rpnkJCw9/cccc.png

The fact that we may be facing another one is insane. ICON, GFS and it's ensembles supporting the idea does lend more credibility. CMC and Euro ensembles show a slight tick up in the region as well.

I just sighed

[floridasun]

this part season that florida watch carribbean we all remember wilma other came from that area in oct

[dizzyfish]

I just can't. My tree guy just left and will be back in a couple of days to take care of Milton's mess, and it's a large one. My trees can't take anymore. (nor my nerves)
I'll just leave the boards on the front porch for a while. Geez! 2004 redux west coast edition.

[Kazmit]

GFS has been hinting at a W Caribbean system ever since Milton formed. Doesn't seem like a phantom now that other Globals are starting to jump onboard. There has already been WAY too much sensationalism on social media about future Nadine hitting Florida. Way too early for all that.

[Fancy1002]

12z GEFS control...

https://i.postimg.cc/rpnkJCw9/cccc.png

Where can you find this?

[weeniepatrol]

Lol.... ok

[wzrgirl1]

https://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2. ... =Animation

Click Fwd. to advance it. Goes out to October 17-18th.