2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[jlauderdal]

12z GEFS control...

https://i.postimg.cc/rpnkJCw9/cccc.png

The fact that we may be facing another one is insane. ICON, GFS and it's ensembles supporting the idea does lend more credibility. CMC and Euro ensembles show a slight tick up in the region as well.

gfs of tropical tidbit dont show that show it going to northern gulf from middle of gulf

Showed the same thing with milt and plenty of modeling had that with helene and even texas, it will be mid to end of october, would be tough to get anything w of 85, busy backloaded season and ACE potential also coming off Africa.

[N2FSU]

6z GFS ensembles coming in much stronger in the Caribbean




Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[mantis83]

6z GFS ensembles coming in much stronger in the Caribbean

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20241011/509e0ac1e628c3a3f163e6e4e820367b.jpg

With strong high pressure to the north, looks to get pushed into Central America on this run
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[chris_fit]

6z GFS ensembles coming in much stronger in the Caribbean

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20241011/509e0ac1e628c3a3f163e6e4e820367b.jpg

With strong high pressure to the north, looks to get pushed into Central America on this run
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Looks like just the OP GFS and a few ensembles bury it, the rest are being pulled up. Will post full run when it completes.

[mantis83]

6z GFS ensembles coming in much stronger in the Caribbean

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20241011/509e0ac1e628c3a3f163e6e4e820367b.jpg

With strong high pressure to the north, looks to get pushed into Central America on this run
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Looks like just the OP GFS and a few ensembles bury it, the rest are being pulled up. Will post full run when it completes.

yeah, after a further look, many members get into the gulf.....

[chris_fit]

06z GEFS. Very strong signal. This is not fantasy range either. Hoping the OP run is correct, in that it buries a major into Central America.

[Teban54]

06z GEFS. Very strong signal. This is not fantasy range either. Hoping the OP run is correct, in that it buries a major into Central America.

https://i.imgur.com/yeBJw2h.gif

Also note that a few members with a storm near Greater Antilles (moving east to west) seem to be from the current 40/40 MDR wave.

[Jr0d]

It is interesting the operational run takes a storm into CA but it appears the majority of the ensembles take it north.

Also interesting that we also see a storm possibly making it that far west in mid to late October.

[Teban54]

GEFS trend over the last 4 runs:

[chris_fit]

Here's the last 5 GEFS at the same point in time - 10 days

[Bob R]

 https://x.com/AccuRayno/status/1844726409719103659

[chris_fit]

Still there on 12z GFS

[Beef Stew]

The signal for something in the WCar has been growing in nearly all of the ensembles, and we’re getting to the point where this is comfortably within 10 days, as well. I’m expecting the NHC to highlight the area by the end of the weekend… if not sooner.

[cheezyWXguy]

I can see why the ensembles are so enthusiastic about this, especially if it tracks northward instead of burying itself in Central America. Looks like there would be a huge upper level anticyclone in the nw Caribbean/southern gom for a storm like this to capitalize on. Such an environment would support another major hurricane for at least a portion of such a track.

[jlauderdal]

It is interesting the operational run takes a storm into CA but it appears the majority of the ensembles take it north.

Also interesting that we also see a storm possibly making it that far west in mid to late October.

Ensembles at this range, op will windshield wiper for days like helene and milt.

[jlauderdal]

 https://x.com/AccuRayno/status/1844726409719103659

SFLcane have any reaction?

[chris_fit]

12z GFS ENS

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Looks vaguely similar to Eta/Iota in terms of track.

[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/AccuRayno/status/1844726409719103659

SFLcane have any reaction?

Very speculative but looks like whatever develops " could " head into central america big ridge over the southeast it seems. Hope that is it for the conus.

[chris_fit]

12 EPS show just hints - nothing crazy. Definitely weaker than GFS.