2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Jr0d]

0Z gfs ensembles are further south more in line with the operational, this has little chance of affecting the gulf coast or florida……..good news for sure

Not good news for Central America. Some of the less developed areas are extremely vulnerable and the death toll can be enormous, especially with inland flooding, mudslides, ect..

Mitch resulted in over 10,000 deaths..

The US can handle major hurricanes with less loss of life than a lot of the Central America countries who are already struggling..

[Teban54]

0Z gfs ensembles are further south more in line with the operational, this has little chance of affecting the gulf coast or florida……..good news for sure

Not good news for Central America. Some of the less developed areas are extremely vulnerable and the death toll can be enormous, especially with inland flooding, mudslides, ect..

Mitch resulted in over 10,000 deaths..

The US can handle major hurricanes with less loss of life than a lot of the Central America countries who are already struggling..

Those countries may also still be recovering from the double whammy of Eta and Iota 4 years ago.

[wxman57]

One thing I see different next week is the movement of a strong cold front all the way south to the NW Caribbean. The jet stream dipping down all the way to the southern Gulf should shut down the potential for hurricane development in the Gulf. It would be more common for something to form in the SW Caribbean that moves west into Central America. Besides, our annual Orlando trip comes up in a week. I will not allow any hurricanes to impact Florida.

Have fun in Orlando WXMAN, and so glad to see the cold front moving into the Carib. It's nice to see the season "slowly" winding down. I would have no problem seeing a few more out to sea storms, but I think everyone is probably burned out on following the tropics at this point anyway lol.

I'm glad it's been a "quiet season". Nothing close to the hyperactivity that pre-season outlooks alluded to. Pretty close to normal, actually. However, the Gulf was quite active this season, probably due to the inhospitable MDR and Caribbean (except during Beryl).

[SFLcane]

hmm..

[underthwx]

hmm..

https://i.postimg.cc/MpVcdbHV/bbbb.png

Can you share your thoughts on this?....

[SFLcane]

hmm..

https://i.postimg.cc/MpVcdbHV/bbbb.png

Can you share your thoughts on this?....

Next couple of days 94L seems unlikely to do anything looks pretty hostile but nearing the western atl things could get interesting for the Caribbean. For now I am pretty curious to see if this was a one off from the euro or a trend towards development. Very warm water in the Caribbean. Way to early to speculate if it’s a threat to the conus

[boca]

hmm..

https://i.postimg.cc/MpVcdbHV/bbbb.png

Can you share your thoughts on this?....

Next couple of days 94L seems unlikely to do anything looks pretty hostile but nearing the western atl things could get interesting for the Caribbean. For now I am pretty curious to see if this was a one off from the euro or a trend towards development. Very warm water in the Caribbean. Way to early to speculate if it’s a threat to the conus

We are getting more rain today than I did with Milton.

[underthwx]

Can you share your thoughts on this?....

Next couple of days 94L seems unlikely to do anything looks pretty hostile but nearing the western atl things could get interesting for the Caribbean. For now I am pretty curious to see if this was a one off from the euro or a trend towards development. Very warm water in the Caribbean. Way to early to speculate if it’s a threat to the conus

We are getting more rain today than I did with Milton.

I am sorry about the rain....I know yall have had a rough week....I hope yall have great weather to recover from the storm(s)...

[underthwx]

hmm..

https://i.postimg.cc/MpVcdbHV/bbbb.png

Can you share your thoughts on this?....

Next couple of days 94L seems unlikely to do anything looks pretty hostile but nearing the western atl things could get interesting for the Caribbean. For now I am pretty curious to see if this was a one off from the euro or a trend towards development. Very warm water in the Caribbean. Way to early to speculate if it’s a threat to the conus

Well said...im curious too....thanks for the reply...

[Fancy1002]

Is it just me, or is that storm on the euro really tiny?

[chris_fit]

18z GFS defintely partaking in Happy Hour this evening

[CFLHurricane]

18z GFS defintely partaking in Happy Hour this evening

Fortunately the GFS is almost certainly drunk as the 10-day forecast for points central Florida northward show the dry season is here. Anything that forms is likely to be buried into Central America by the much awaited autumnal high.

[emeraldislenc]

Still don't think we can rule out southern Florida and the Keys!

[Category5Kaiju]

GFS keeps blowing up the WCAR system, but I can't help but wonder if it's making this system create unfavorable conditions around it (hence why unlike the Euro it does not really show 94L becoming anything down the road)

[MetroMike]

18z GFS defintely partaking in Happy Hour this evening

Fortunately the GFS is almost certainly drunk as the 10-day forecast for points central Florida northward show the dry season is here. Anything that forms is likely to be buried into Central America by the much awaited autumnal high.

Can’t be too sure about that in this back loaded season. The troubling tropics may have a say in this so called dry season.

[toad strangler]

18z GFS defintely partaking in Happy Hour this evening

Fortunately the GFS is almost certainly drunk as the 10-day forecast for points central Florida northward show the dry season is here. Anything that forms is likely to be buried into Central America by the much awaited autumnal high.

Can’t be too sure about that in this back loaded season. The troubling tropics may have a say in this so called dry season.

 https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1845056690946966018

[Hammy]

GFS keeps blowing up the WCAR system, but I can't help but wonder if it's making this system create unfavorable conditions around it (hence why unlike the Euro it does not really show 94L becoming anything down the road)

Euro has a strange habit of showing something in the longer term (sometimes being one of the few models to sniff out development, but then drop it in the medium range (5-7 days) after the other models catch on, only to show up again as development gets closer.

[MarioProtVI]

The persistent GFS Caribbean thing has a lot of hallmarks of 21L from last year - same time of year (mid-October), same location (extreme SW Caribbean), and the GFS is the only model on board for the most part and insists on a strong hurricane/major all the way down to below 96-120h, and both are likely artifacts of the model’s bias of spinning up spurious vorticity off of South America into something big. Even with 21L models like the HWRF just under 24h before formation insistsed on a strong hurricane. Obviously they got burned bad there, so it’s very obvious why NHC has not marked that area at all - the ICON is the only other one that has something there and it’s a very broad and loose low at that timeframe. In fact, the GFS has been steadily correcting itself now the last few runs with progressively weaker runs (compared to the bonkers 934 Iota repeat the other day) as 94L becomes stronger on the models. GFS now seems to be slowly caving towards the Euro it seems. But I should note there is something trying to come about down there, but any development if it all will only likely be a short lived TC just like 21L most likely.

[kevin]

06z GFS has both the WCar system and 94L. The WCar system forms around +72hrs and makes landfall in CA at +108hrs as a cat 1 (984 mb). 94L forms into a TS at +90hrs and makes landfall in the Dominican Republic as a cat 1 (988 mb) at +132hrs. Note that only 2 hurricanes have ever made landfall in the Dominican Republic this late in the season (Katie 1955 as a cat 2 and a TC in 1867 as a cat 1).

06z GFS also shows another STS at +156hrs which becomes a strong TS/cat 1 (986 mb) and goes OTS.

[bvigal]

This WCar low feels like the elephant in the room. It's the time of year, the vicinity of origin of Mitch, an historic storm. We are 13 days from a date I remember every year when 31 souls perished on the S/V Fantome in a storm that did not do anything it was expected to do, and killed thousands of people in central America.

An excellent book published in 2000 tells the story of this killer storm and all the lives effected, entitled "The Ship And The Storm".