2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[TomballEd]

Some of the ECENS do show the GFS Caribbean system. They just hot CA before they can get strong,

[chris_fit]

All the models show one vicious high pressure that builds over the southeast over the next week or two. Hopefully puts the SE out of commission from tropical activity for a while.

[CFLHurricane]

All the models show one vicious high pressure that builds over the southeast over the next week or two. Hopefully puts the SE out of commission from tropical activity for a while.

Today was the most perfect autumn day in Central Florida with sunny skies and low(er) humidity. It’s the universal signal that ain’t nothing getting anywhere this way and the models back it up. This season to remember is in the books as far as I’m concerned.

[tolakram]

All the models show one vicious high pressure that builds over the southeast over the next week or two. Hopefully puts the SE out of commission from tropical activity for a while.

Today was the most perfect autumn day in Central Florida with sunny skies and low(er) humidity. It’s the universal signal that ain’t nothing getting anywhere this way and the models back it up. This season to remember is in the books as far as I’m concerned.

We'll see, we get this every year, but fronts can retrograde and shear zones will fade, with fronts often becoming points of genesis. Florida isn't fully out of the woods yet IMO.

[tolakram]

Jinx

[gatorcane]

The GFS in the super long-range has been advertising a Halloween surprise out of the Western Caribbean and this run heads into Florida:

[Hurricane2022]

Thankfully this is at veeeeeery long range .But I wouldn't say this season has ended because we're likely going to see some favorable conditions for TCG reaching the Atlantic basin in late Oct/early Nov.

[MetroMike]

Yes we are burnt out but the 18z GFS does not show anything near Florida. I will take small victories as brief as they may be.

[Cachondo23]

GFS doing a wrong way Lenny in the ECarib going west to east, interesting.

[Hurricane2022]

GFS doing a wrong way Lenny in the ECarib going west to east, interesting.

Since we had a Wrong-Way-Milton just ~12 days ago, I guess this run doesn't sounds too crazy for me.

[AnnularCane]

Wrong Way Milton doesn't quite have the "zing" of Wrong Way Lenny, and I'm not sure Nadine or Oscar do either.

[Blown Away]

18z GFS didn’t disappoint!!

[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1847984798364586086

[CFLHurricane]

:eek:

 https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1847984798364586086

Ok Joe Could a hurricane Nicole happen? Maybe. But smart money is on the season being over for the continental US. Especially using a Euro genesis spread

[Cachondo23]

Once again GFS with a Wrong Way Lenny ‘99 storm. Are conditions possible to make this happen?

[SFLcane]

Rather strong signal now for another carib TC maybe even multiple.

[Woofde]

Rather strong signal now for another carib TC maybe even multiple.

I think it's a very believable signal. Oscar and Nadine is evidence of remaining favorability. They are here in spite of the unfavorable subseasonal conditions. The MJO is very amped up right now and will be swinging into the Atlantic right during that timeframe you showed. I have a feeling it will be the season's last real hurrah as things wind down. If a storm does indeed go the "wrong way" as some far out modeling suggests, or we indeed get two storms out of it, that could take us over the lip for a hyperactive season.

The WCar is very climatologically favorable during Early November and the heat content is still outrageous there. There's still lots of wrinkles especially if there are strong recurving typhoons, but it seems reasonable.

[underthwx]

Rather strong signal now for another carib TC maybe even multiple.

https://i.imgur.com/MiGagZk.png

https://i.imgur.com/Qjmh1Nj.png

I think it's a very believable signal. Oscar and Nadine is evidence of remaining favorability. They are here in spite of the unfavorable subseasonal conditions. The MJO is very amped up right now and will be swinging into the Atlantic right during that timeframe you showed. I have a feeling it will be the season's last real hurrah as things wind down. If a storm does indeed go the "wrong way" as some far out modeling suggests, or we indeed get two storms out of it, that could take us over the lip for a hyperactive season.

The WCar is very climatologically favorable during Early November and the heat content is still outrageous there. There's still lots of wrinkles especially if there are strong recurving typhoons, but it seems reasonable.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20241020/384c83a1a13463b66a3109d716b94ad6.jpg

Im a believer...given the activity this season....yall got my attention...somethings up with all this....its like some kind of pattern this September and October....

[emeraldislenc]

What might be the time frame for possible development?

[Travorum]

What might be the time frame for possible development?

Roughly averaging the most recent ensembles next Monday (Oct 28) would likely be the earliest time for development, with Tuesday-Wednesday being more likely. Given the high degree of consistency amongst ensembles and between runs, and with the MJO most likely going into a favorable phase, I would expect to see the NHC put up an AOI in the next few days.