TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[shaggy]

not an expert here but that trough seems to be skirting to the NE of irene and is that a small high high with the eastern edge at 35N and 65W or so that extends SW over the US?Not an expert like i said but interesting to see that WV imagery

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[jrod]

I think 30N 70W is a key point for Irene. If it goes east of that point then I think she wont ever threaten land. West of that point and the Outer Banks are under the gun.

[deltadog03]

it looks like she has stalled

[Frank P]

reviewing this sat loop it does not look like it is not stalling and remains on the NHC track as it has done basically all day.. what you do see is some impressive convection building up over the center and it appears to be getting better organized via the latest sat presentation.... my unprofessional opinion only... click on the forecast plots and watch the convection burst on the last few frames right on the red forecast symbol which is near the center...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[BensonTCwatcher]

I am not even watching the center to see if it's on track. In fact, the folks who know a lot more than I do at the NHC probably have it figured right but I only raise my own question as to the ridging that was forecast by the the global models does not seem to be what is setting up. I don't know if that changes anything with respect to landfall etc. It would not be impossible or even all that improbable that:

the 5p.m. advisory maintains continuity until all the recon data can be put into the models and analyzed. A shift less NE ( I hesitate to use the word West because I don't see W movement at this time) That would mean I still have to pay attention to this closely all weekend, which I had planned NOT to do. They have not worded the disco in certian recurve terms just yet

[Sanibel]

Nice center burst.

Center slightly exposed on SE side.


Told ya it was intensifying.

Slowing in forward speed.

[du1st]

If it was a cat 5 right know it wouldn't matter.

[du1st]

The bamm says a loop for irene! WOW!

[storms in NC]

look what Mark had to say on hurricanetrack

http://hurricanetrack.com/

[deltadog03]

i see a fairy strong ridge...

[Air Force Met]

i see a fairy strong ridge...

Not seeing where you are seeing that...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html

[caribepr]

If it was a cat 5 right know it wouldn't matter.

Oh...it might if you lived in say....Bermuda...using the 1-2-3 rule (look it up)

>Results for Bermuda (32.37N, 64.68W):
>The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 28.7N, >67.5W or about 303.6 miles (488.6 km) from your location. This is >corresponding with the 0 hour position of the 5-day forecast

[storms in NC]

Nice center burst.

Center slightly exposed on SE side.


Told ya it was intensifying.

Slowing in forward speed.

If it is moving it is not by much.

okay I went back and readed the 5:00 PM update and here is some of it



(Irene has decreased its forward speed and is moving toward the
northwest or 310 degrees at 9 knots. The cyclone has been steered
by the flow around a strong mid-level subtropical ridge. As the
ridge moves eastward...Irene should turn more toward the
north-northwest and north around the ridge into an area of light
steering currents. This would result in a significant decrease in
forward speed during the next 2 to 4 days. In fact...Irene could
begin to meander for a while. Thereafter...the westerlies are
expected to become established and this flow should take Irene
northeastward away from the U.S. Coast. )

[clfenwi]

AFWA's estimate:

TPNT KGWC 130005
A. TROPICAL STORM IRENE (NINE)
B. 12/2331Z (62)
C. 29.0N/1
D. 67.6W/9
E. SIX/GOES12
F. T3.0/3.0/W0.5/24HRS -12/2331Z-
G. IR/EIR

38A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .65 ON LOG10 SPIRAL GIVING
A DT OF 3.0. FT IS BASED ON DT. PT AND MET AGREE.

AODT: T4.3 (UCCR)

[wxmann_91]

Is there a possibility that Irene could do a Dennis (1999), i.e., look like it's recurving but suddenly turn back to hit the mainland? If not then I'll be eating some real good crow next week as I've been saying that this wouldn't be a fish for some time now.

[CronkPSU]

AFWA's estimate:

TPNT KGWC 130005
A. TROPICAL STORM IRENE (NINE)
B. 12/2331Z (62)
C. 29.0N/1
D. 67.6W/9
E. SIX/GOES12
F. T3.0/3.0/W0.5/24HRS -12/2331Z-
G. IR/EIR

38A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .65 ON LOG10 SPIRAL GIVING
A DT OF 3.0. FT IS BASED ON DT. PT AND MET AGREE.

AODT: T4.3 (UCCR)

so it's basically stalled

[Ivanhater]

i just dont understand, take a look at this, you can see the sinking motion to the north, leading you to believe irene is under the ridge but you can also see irene move almost due north at the end...crazy

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

[Frank P]

nice loop IH... see some rotation on the wave on the caribbean as well... does look like Irene is moving NNW, or at least that is the direction of the convection...

also wanted to comment on how the ridge hints of flattening the northern quadrant of Irene... she's struggling to plow through it it appears on this loop

[Ivanhater]

nice loop IH... see some rotation on the wave on the caribbean as well... does look like Irene is moving NNW, or at least that is the direction of the convection...

thanks, ya im at a loss on irene

[clfenwi]

SSD estimate

12/2345 UTC 28.9N 67.7W T3.5/3.5 IRENE