TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Locked
Message
Author
User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

#2321 Postby deltadog03 » Fri Aug 12, 2005 7:43 pm

yeah...irene is puzzling me as well....look at derek's image...looks like a healthy ridge to me...also, a little help here...if i am not mistaken, when a tropical cyclone moves into a ridge it will slow down correct? also, yah, i have seen the WV...its getting flattened like heck...i do see somewhat of a northerly componet of the deep convection...system is looking ragged right now
0 likes   
Top
Frank P
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2777
Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2003 10:52 am
Location: Biloxi Beach, Ms
Contact:
Contact Frank P

#2322 Postby Frank P » Fri Aug 12, 2005 7:45 pm

ivanhater wrote:
Frank P wrote:nice loop IH... see some rotation on the wave on the caribbean as well... does look like Irene is moving NNW, or at least that is the direction of the convection...


thanks, ya im at a loss on irene


Yeah IH but dang that's what makes all this so fascinating and fun... if it were easy it would be boring....
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11162
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

#2323 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 12, 2005 7:47 pm

Frank P wrote:
ivanhater wrote:
Frank P wrote:nice loop IH... see some rotation on the wave on the caribbean as well... does look like Irene is moving NNW, or at least that is the direction of the convection...


thanks, ya im at a loss on irene


Yeah IH but dang that's what makes all this so fascinating and fun... if it were easy it would be boring....


aint that the truth
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
wxwatcher91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1606
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 2:43 pm
Location: Keene, NH
Contact:
Contact wxwatcher91

#2324 Postby wxwatcher91 » Fri Aug 12, 2005 7:49 pm

she doesnt look so good right now... will she strengthen any more??? if she doesnt and we get another 70mph TS ...I will be SOO mad.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

#2325 Postby deltadog03 » Fri Aug 12, 2005 7:50 pm

yup another 70mph TS....lol...jk..i dunno...it looks like crap
0 likes   
Top
superfly

#2326 Postby superfly » Fri Aug 12, 2005 7:56 pm

What? There's deep convection right over the center.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
CronkPSU
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2014
Joined: Sun Aug 07, 2005 10:44 pm
Location: Avalon Park, FL

#2327 Postby CronkPSU » Fri Aug 12, 2005 7:57 pm

superfly wrote:What? There's deep convection right over the center.


maybe they are comparing it to the awesome pictures in that best SAT presentation thread...those are some incredible pictures in that thread
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
jrod
Military Member
Military Member
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Jun 17, 2005 1:22 pm
Location: jacksonville, fl

#2328 Postby jrod » Fri Aug 12, 2005 8:01 pm

It looks almost stationary to me. A wait and see where she's at tommorow and what the convection does again for Irene. I dont know whats going with the convection now but I think it is safe to say Irene won't be a hurricane tonight.
0 likes   
Top
Frank P
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2777
Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2003 10:52 am
Location: Biloxi Beach, Ms
Contact:
Contact Frank P

#2329 Postby Frank P » Fri Aug 12, 2005 8:25 pm

jrod wrote:It looks almost stationary to me. A wait and see where she's at tommorow and what the convection does again for Irene. I dont know whats going with the convection now but I think it is safe to say Irene won't be a hurricane tonight.


Looking at this sat loop presentation Irene doesn't appear to be moving much at all ... looks like the northern quadrant is getting smashed by the high pressure ridge to the NW and N... its flattened out somewhat on its northern side... could be just a temporary thing who the heck knows... notice the nice rotation on the wave in the central atlantic, could be on the way to our next TD tomorrow if this organization continues...

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... ir_east+12
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
WindRunner
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5806
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
Contact:
Contact WindRunner

#2330 Postby WindRunner » Fri Aug 12, 2005 8:30 pm

Well, I wouldn't expect an upgrade on either system until 11am tomorrow, so I'm going to get some sleep here and forget about these two.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

#2331 Postby deltadog03 » Fri Aug 12, 2005 8:46 pm

*I have issued a crow watch for myself** Well, I have almost given up on my idea of a NC landfall...I do think the ridge is underestimated but, I just don't think its going to matter...we will see in the end but, I think I will be WRONG!!!! yes, wrong. anyway, atleast I admit my faults and this will more than likely be one of them...well, there is always a next time...
0 likes   
Top
Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10375
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

#2332 Postby Sanibel » Fri Aug 12, 2005 8:49 pm

Another pulse down.


Looks to be slowing into tight recurve at 325*
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
storms in NC
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2338
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2005 2:58 pm
Location: Wallace,NC 40 miles NE of Wilm
Contact:
Contact storms in NC

#2333 Postby storms in NC » Fri Aug 12, 2005 8:49 pm

Sanibel, What you thinking?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
CronkPSU
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2014
Joined: Sun Aug 07, 2005 10:44 pm
Location: Avalon Park, FL

#2334 Postby CronkPSU » Fri Aug 12, 2005 8:57 pm

Sanibel wrote:Another pulse down.


Looks to be slowing into tight recurve at 325*


little help, what does that mean?
0 likes   
Top
Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10375
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

#2335 Postby Sanibel » Fri Aug 12, 2005 8:59 pm

My first look at the WV loop said the ridge is wrapping on top of it and will send it WNW.

But the center continues to slow and turn as if it was being taken into tight recurve...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
CronkPSU
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2014
Joined: Sun Aug 07, 2005 10:44 pm
Location: Avalon Park, FL

#2336 Postby CronkPSU » Fri Aug 12, 2005 9:03 pm

<img src="http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early2.png">
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
wxwatcher91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1606
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 2:43 pm
Location: Keene, NH
Contact:
Contact wxwatcher91

#2337 Postby wxwatcher91 » Fri Aug 12, 2005 9:05 pm

Sanibel wrote:My first look at the WV loop said the ridge is wrapping on top of it and will send it WNW.

But the center continues to slow and turn as if it was being taken into tight recurve...


loop???
0 likes   
Top
Frank P
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2777
Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2003 10:52 am
Location: Biloxi Beach, Ms
Contact:
Contact Frank P

#2338 Postby Frank P » Fri Aug 12, 2005 9:05 pm

this sat loop shows the ridge that Irene is dealing with .... also the wave in the central atlantic looks like its getting a little northerly component with it as well

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SouthFloridawx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8346
Age: 46
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:
Contact SouthFloridawx

here we go loop

#2339 Postby SouthFloridawx » Fri Aug 12, 2005 9:05 pm

here we go loopdy loop
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
storms in NC
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2338
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2005 2:58 pm
Location: Wallace,NC 40 miles NE of Wilm
Contact:
Contact storms in NC

#2340 Postby storms in NC » Fri Aug 12, 2005 9:10 pm

how good is the XTRP I am going to say not good?
0 likes   
Top
Locked

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Cpv17, Google Adsense [Bot], lolitx, Sunnydays, WeatherCat and 43 guests