2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[cycloneye]

What exactly is "wave breaking" anyway?

Is very long this document about Rossby wave breaking.

An excerpt:
RWB events are identified in the upper troposphere but affect the flow at all tropospheric levels and play an important role in the meridional transport of both tropical and subtropical air masses [Homeyer and Bowman, 2013]. At the surface, AWB drives a positive sea level pressure (SLP) anomaly to the South of the breaking and a negative anomaly to the North, while the converse holds for CWB [Strong and Magnusdottir, 2008a]. A midlatitude AWB (CWB) is therefore associated with an enhanced (reduced) SLP dipole over the Atlantic and a more northerly (southerly) jet than usual [Riviere and Orlanski, 2007]. Strong and Magnusdottir [2008a] found the relationship between RWB and the NAO to be strongly dependent on the meridional location of RWB, with AWB (CWB) centered around 50°N associated with the positive (negative) phase of the NAO, in agreement with previous studies [e.g., Benedict et al., 2004]. RWB events shifted 20° to the north or south were found to drive the opposite NAO polarity.


https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com ... 15JD023854

Thanks...but I probably should have told you to explain it like I'm five years old.

The shortest words. Dry air that pushes down from the Azores / Europe area to cool the waters.

[LarryWx]

I have a new theory about why the North Atlantic is very quiet and the models are not showing anything forming thru mid August. I go with the intense heat in Europe that sends dry air to the SW into the Atlantic. What do the members think about this?

https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1553809567317999616

Luis,
Interesting theory. One would need to look at when in the past there was intense, widespread, and long enough lasting August Europe heat events and see how the Atlantic was then and soon after to try to get a better feel for whether or not there could be something to this theory. But there'd also need to be enough examples of past intense heat to give us a big enough sample to analyze this idea. I mean only one or two would be too small. I'd want to see something like 7-10 to allow for some statistical significance.

Not sure if you remember but I also brought up the possibility of a correlation between the Europe heatwave and Atlantic activity a few weeks back and the historical years you mentioned for previous heatwaves would suggest that it could be potentially associated with above average activity.

Anyone here knows if there is any correlation between the extreme heat wave in the Europe this year and tropical activity? UK in particular is just completely wrecking records and I would be interested in seeing if there is any connection to it.

This is, indeed, absolutely insane heat! The all time W. Europe records now being broken or at least threatened were last set on these dates:

7/21/2021, 7/25/2019, 6/25/2019, 7/13/2017, 8/7/2015, 7/5/2015, 8/10/2012, 7/16/2005, 9/8/2003, 8/12/2003, 8/2/1990

So, one could look at 2021, 2019, 2017, 2015, 2012, 2005, 2003, and 1990 to see if there's a pattern.

Together with this heatwave, the Mediterranean, Bay of Biscay, and English Channel, among other waters, are significantly warmer than normal. Also, note that 5 of the last 8 summers have had record heat. So, obviously AGW is playing a significant part in all of this (several degrees in all likelihood).

Please remind me about something. When you said possible correlation, were you talking about possible +correlation or possible -correlation of extreme Europe heat and tropical activity?

[tarheelprogrammer]

So, the big question is will the Atlantic wake up? I hope it remains quiet for once. We need a slow season, even though it would hurt me as far as excitement. The way the world's economies are struggling we need a break to help limit the damage due to Hurricanes.

[Category5Kaiju]

Was digging through Danny's analysis on Twitter, and I found this. It's very interesting to see this, something's definitely off.

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1553751857423695874

[skyline385]

Luis,
Interesting theory. One would need to look at when in the past there was intense, widespread, and long enough lasting August Europe heat events and see how the Atlantic was then and soon after to try to get a better feel for whether or not there could be something to this theory. But there'd also need to be enough examples of past intense heat to give us a big enough sample to analyze this idea. I mean only one or two would be too small. I'd want to see something like 7-10 to allow for some statistical significance.

Not sure if you remember but I also brought up the possibility of a correlation between the Europe heatwave and Atlantic activity a few weeks back and the historical years you mentioned for previous heatwaves would suggest that it could be potentially associated with above average activity.

This is, indeed, absolutely insane heat! The all time W. Europe records now being broken or at least threatened were last set on these dates:

7/21/2021, 7/25/2019, 6/25/2019, 7/13/2017, 8/7/2015, 7/5/2015, 8/10/2012, 7/16/2005, 9/8/2003, 8/12/2003, 8/2/1990

So, one could look at 2021, 2019, 2017, 2015, 2012, 2005, 2003, and 1990 to see if there's a pattern.

Together with this heatwave, the Mediterranean, Bay of Biscay, and English Channel, among other waters, are significantly warmer than normal. Also, note that 5 of the last 8 summers have had record heat. So, obviously AGW is playing a significant part in all of this (several degrees in all likelihood).

Please remind me about something. When you said possible correlation, were you talking about possible +correlation or possible -correlation of extreme Europe heat and tropical activity?

I was thinking of a possible +ve correlation since all those years except 2015 were associated with above-average activity in the Atlantic.

[MHC Tracking]

SFLcane, that is not specific enough . I have modified it to make it more reflective of the newly found discovery of "wave-breaking," a term that even I have never heard of or thought was possible or a thing until like 2 days ago

https://i.imgur.com/GRDV7Ii.png

Don't forget about "Is the East Pacific producing storms in its climatological peak?" Yes: "something isn't right in the tropics", No: " 2013 had this too"

[MHC Tracking]

Not sure if you remember but I also brought up the possibility of a correlation between the Europe heatwave and Atlantic activity a few weeks back and the historical years you mentioned for previous heatwaves would suggest that it could be potentially associated with above average activity.

Please remind me about something. When you said possible correlation, were you talking about possible +correlation or possible -correlation of extreme Europe heat and tropical activity?

I was thinking of a possible +ve correlation since all those years except 2015 were associated with above-average activity in the Atlantic.

Seems to be the case
 https://twitter.com/mycallsprint/status/1551729063575703552

[LarryWx]

Please remind me about something. When you said possible correlation, were you talking about possible +correlation or possible -correlation of extreme Europe heat and tropical activity?

I was thinking of a possible +ve correlation since all those years except 2015 were associated with above-average activity in the Atlantic.

Seems to be the case
https://twitter.com/mycallsprint/status/1551729063575703552

So, perhaps extreme European heat results in quiet while it is happening (Luis' theory of quiet on models in early August) followed by active after the intense European heat ends (as per skyline, MHC tracking, and that tweet from Mike Bloomerberg)? Am I following this correctly? So with regard to intense European heat negative concurrent correlation as well as a lagged positive correlation?

But keep in mind that late June was very active vs the norm in the MDR and June also had European heat as I recall.

[MHC Tracking]

I was thinking of a possible +ve correlation since all those years except 2015 were associated with above-average activity in the Atlantic.

Seems to be the case
https://twitter.com/mycallsprint/status/1551729063575703552

So, perhaps extreme European heat results in quiet while it is happening (Luis' theory of quiet on models in early August) followed by active after the intense European heat ends (as per skyline, MHC tracking, and that tweet from Mike Bloomerberg)? Am I following this correctly? So negative concurrent correlation as well as a lagged positive partial correlation?

Seems to be the case, the quiet at the time of the heat may be attributable to high pressure over Europe allowing for dry air injections into the MDR, as has been occurring recently.

[weeniepatrol]

As TCA mentioned, 2013 is actually useful for this July... as an antilog!!

[LarryWx]

Do folks remember that there was a long lull after being active in the MDR early in 2021? There was H Elsa from a similarly very strong MDR very early wave to Bonnie's MDR wave. Elsa dissipated on July 9th. The next TS, Fred, didn't become a TC til August 11th, 33 days afterward!

[LarryWx]

Say what you want but this is quite the impressive wave for mid June.

https://i.postimg.cc/XJMCvSV0/DD746940-0-B0-D-4-BB0-8-B8-B-049-D89-D16179.gif

Here's a reminder of how anomalously active/wet it was on June 21st of this year in the far E MDR. I'm bumping this post, which talks about the very impressive satellite loop of the precursor to 94L/Bonnie as it emerged from Africa. So, it isn't at all like the MDR has been quiet/dry all season. It will switch back to active/wet at some point.

[LarryWx]

I had said this earlier: "This is, indeed, absolutely insane heat! The all time W. Europe records now being broken or at least threatened were last set on these dates:

7/21/2021, 7/25/2019, 6/25/2019, 7/13/2017, 8/7/2015, 7/5/2015, 8/10/2012, 7/16/2005, 9/8/2003, 8/12/2003, 8/2/1990

So, one could look at 2021, 2019, 2017, 2015, 2012, 2005, 2003, and 1990 to see if there's a pattern."

Also, Luis and others (including myself) started wondering about a possible concurrent negative correlation between intense Europe heat and Atlantic MDR activity.

So, I just decided to analyze and found out the following fwiw:


1. 7/21/2021: no MDR TC til Fred on 8/11/2021. So, 3 weeks between the record European heat and the next MDR TC.

2. 7/25/2019: no MDR TC til Dorian on 8/24/2019. So, a month between the record heat and the next MDR TC.

3. 6/25/2019: no MDR TC til Dorian on 8/24/2021. So, two months between the record heat and the next MDR TC.

4. 7/13/2017: only 4 days til next MDR TC, Don, on 7/17/2017.

5. 8/7/2015: 11 days til next MDR TC, Danny, on 8/18/2015.

6. 7/5/2015: no MDR TC til Danny on 8/18/2015. So, 6 weeks between the record heat and the next MDR TC.

7. 8/10/2012: Helene already in existence in the MDR that day. So, 0 days.

8. 7/16/2005: MH Emily already in existence in Caribbean then. If Emily can be counted, that's 0 days. If not, Irene is the next MDR storm on 8/4/2005, which would be just under 3 weeks later


9. 9/8/2003: Isabel was a MH in the MDR then. So, 0 days.

10. 8/12/2003: 15 days til next MDR TC, Fabian, on 8/27/2003.

11. 8/2/1990: Cesar was a TS in the MDR then. So, 0 days.


So, cases 1, 2, 3, and 6 suggest the possibility of a long lag period being favored. However, cases 4, 7, 9, and 11 had little or no lag and thus tend to kill that idea

Conclusion: no clear-cut negative correlation between extreme European heat and concurrent Atlantic MDR TC activity. With 3 cases (or 4 if Emily of 2005 can be counted) out of 11 cases having zero lag and another one having only a 4 day lag, I don't feel there's any way to conclude the negative correlation.

Any other opinions?

[zzh]

Heatwave/marine heatwave over Western Europe/NE Atlantic means SST is also warmer there. NE Atlantic is also part of the AMO horseshoe, warmer water there is a sign of AMO+. So not a surprise that heatwave in Western Europe correlates with Atlantic hurricane.

[WiscoWx02]

The fact that many consider 2013 an actual analogue is interesting. What’s even more interesting is that this wave breaking activity is very reminiscent of 2013. It’s about the only thing that is though. We will never have another season quite like 2013 for sure but we may have a season that comes close, I still don’t think that will be this year though. I think hyperactive is off the table, a near average to slightly above average is probably the most likely if we are still seeing this wave breaking happen in 2 weeks…which it could very well be. With the upwelling water in the Nino 1+2 region we should see an end to the El Nino conditions that seem to be more prevalent than La Nina, so the western Atlantic should wake up…but I think it’s a genuine possibility the MDR never really gets going due to the wave breaking and mid level dry air assuming it holds. Doesn’t mean we won’t see activity on this end of the Atlantic, I think this season is going to be heavily west based due to the Atlantic Nina and warmish MDR similar to 2020 but nowhere near as extreme. It still could be enough to see one heck of a season, because honestly you could only have 4 named storms in one season but every single one be a category 3 or higher and hit land and idk about everyone else but I would consider that an active year still in a sense. Just my two cents.

[Category5Kaiju]

Current shear map btw; aside from the Caribbean, at least as of now, it doesn't look too terrible. Nothing strikes me as odd

[Category5Kaiju]

The fact that many consider 2013 an actual analogue is interesting. What’s even more interesting is that this wave breaking activity is very reminiscent of 2013. It’s about the only thing that is though. We will never have another season quite like 2013 for sure but we may have a season that comes close, I still don’t think that will be this year though. I think hyperactive is off the table, a near average to slightly above average is probably the most likely if we are still seeing this wave breaking happen in 2 weeks…which it could very well be. With the upwelling water in the Nino 1+2 region we should see an end to the El Nino conditions that seem to be more prevalent than La Nina, so the western Atlantic should wake up…but I think it’s a genuine possibility the MDR never really gets going due to the wave breaking and mid level dry air assuming it holds. Doesn’t mean we won’t see activity on this end of the Atlantic, I think this season is going to be heavily west based due to the Atlantic Nina and warmish MDR similar to 2020 but nowhere near as extreme. It still could be enough to see one heck of a season, because honestly you could only have 4 named storms in one season but every single one be a category 3 or higher and hit land and idk about everyone else but I would consider that an active year still in a sense. Just my two cents.

I mean, in a sense, 1999 was kind of like that. Below average number of total storms (12), but 5 Cat 4s. 1998, something similar. 14 NS (average), but also Georges and Mitch. Both were also La Nina years that didn't really get going until later August. But boy did they pack a punch. I mean, one would have to wonder if 1998 and 1999 also featured wavebreaking at around this time of the year, considering they had like little to no activity until later despite being La Nina years. If it's not shear or ssts, then it has to be dry air...at least that's my guess

It's also quite interesting how 2013 had more NSs than we have thus far; again, sometimes these periods of deathly quiet portend activity, as opposed to 2013-like conditions where storms form at a normal pace but struggle to become anything major. The way I see things, the quiet we're seeing now is more reminiscent of years like 1998, 1999, or 2019 moreso than 2013.

[zzh]

New Cansips is out. Looks like TUTT is still in the Caribbean in August.

[cycloneye]

New Cansips is out. Looks like TUTT is still in the Caribbean in August.

Graphic?

[WiscoWx02]

The fact that many consider 2013 an actual analogue is interesting. What’s even more interesting is that this wave breaking activity is very reminiscent of 2013. It’s about the only thing that is though. We will never have another season quite like 2013 for sure but we may have a season that comes close, I still don’t think that will be this year though. I think hyperactive is off the table, a near average to slightly above average is probably the most likely if we are still seeing this wave breaking happen in 2 weeks…which it could very well be. With the upwelling water in the Nino 1+2 region we should see an end to the El Nino conditions that seem to be more prevalent than La Nina, so the western Atlantic should wake up…but I think it’s a genuine possibility the MDR never really gets going due to the wave breaking and mid level dry air assuming it holds. Doesn’t mean we won’t see activity on this end of the Atlantic, I think this season is going to be heavily west based due to the Atlantic Nina and warmish MDR similar to 2020 but nowhere near as extreme. It still could be enough to see one heck of a season, because honestly you could only have 4 named storms in one season but every single one be a category 3 or higher and hit land and idk about everyone else but I would consider that an active year still in a sense. Just my two cents.

I mean, in a sense, 1999 was kind of like that. Below average number of total storms (12), but 5 Cat 4s. 1998, something similar. 14 NS (average), but also Georges and Mitch. Both were also La Nina years that didn't really get going until later August. But boy did they pack a punch. I mean, one would have to wonder if 1998 and 1999 also featured wavebreaking at around this time of the year, considering they had like little to no activity until later despite being La Nina years. If it's not shear or ssts, then it has to be dry air...at least that's my guess

It's also quite interesting how 2013 had more NSs than we have thus far; again, sometimes these periods of deathly quiet portend activity, as opposed to 2013-like conditions where storms form at a normal pace but struggle to become anything major. The way I see things, the quiet we're seeing now is more reminiscent of years like 1998, 1999, or 2019 moreso than 2013.

Forgot to pose this question that you just essentially asked for me, did we see this wave breaking activity in 1999? What others years did we see it? Is there a way to look back and infer if wave breaking was an issue?