2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[SFLcane]

[SFLcane]

12z eps is also active..

[ScottNAtlanta]

The one thing that, in my mind, makes this possible is that in the Halloween +- 7 days according to local mets here, we will be in a very unusual pattern for this time of year with one of the warmest Halloweens on record due to an Omega Block. If that is the case, you wont see the screaming fast winds across the GOM you might expect this time of year.

[Stormlover70]

12z GFS not giving the Florida west coast/big bend a break (note this is fantasy range)
https://i.imgur.com/BmfVTGJ.gif

That is highly unlikely with a fall like jet stream pattern in place now across the gulf. North i see this get is keys/SFL a good analog is Hurricane Michelle 2001.

GFS thinks its 8/25

2004 vibes back to back grrrr

[SouthFLTropics]

Can't we just will this to go away? Someone turn on the South Florida shield. Not really ready to deal with this again after the Milton tornado fest.

[Stormlover70]

:double: Can't we just will this to go away? Someone turn on the South Florida shield. Not really ready to deal with this again after the Milton tornado fest.

our area cannot take anything else. The tornadoes were bad but not even close to the flooding on the west coast from helene and milton.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Fortunately no model support for this other than GFS, right?

[ThunderForce]

The GFS seems to more or less kill the jet stream and/or push it northward in the 12z run, if I'm correct in reading the 200 mb wind as the jet stream. Never seems to push back down back into the Gulf either.

[CrazyC83]

Nicole 2.0 on the lastest GFS but a bit stronger. Lots of possibilities still remain!

https://i.postimg.cc/T1gdQkbp/IMG-9678.gif

Amazing GFS run, some type of Fujiwhara effect and straight to Miami from the NE then back to Cuba and Yucatan…

I am going to call that a happy hour run...a storm moving SW from Miami through the Florida Keys would be odd for anytime of the year. The 1935 Yankee hurricane had its origins in the mid Atlantic, likely a subtropical storm that became fully tropical as it dive south before moving west across Miami..

Never has a hurricane that originated in the Carribean hit Florida in November since we have been keeping records, though Michelle was close and is an example of how strong an early November hurricane can be in the Caribbean, peaking as a cat 4 and devastating Cuba.

The 1935 Yankee hurricane was driven by a large, persistent Southeast ridge, correct? With the #DeathRidge right now, anything that forms in that area could easily go southwest...

[HurricaneBelle]

2004 vibes back to back grrrr

2004 shut off pretty much after Jeanne/Karl by around October 1. This is more 1995, 2005 or 2020.

[TomballEd]

Fortunately no model support for this other than GFS, right?

The Euro ensembles and the Canadian ensembles lend at least some support to the GFS solution.

[Travorum]

18z GFS track would cause some serious flash flooding in Jamaica and the greater Antilles, doing a loop around/over Jamaica and dropping huge amounts of rain before bombing out into central Cuba:

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS ensembles are very active again:

[Category5Kaiju]

Wow, that 18Z GFS was one hell of a storm.

[sikkar]

Wow, that 18Z GFS was one hell of a storm.

Can you post the gif?

[HurricaneBelle]

Wow, that 18Z GFS was one hell of a storm.

Can you post the gif?

Just scroll back 4 posts

[SFLcane]

[USTropics]

18z GFS ensembles be like:

[Hurricane2022]

18z GFS ensembles be like:
https://i.imgur.com/rYIMgyk.png

https://i.imgur.com/Rnt2atA.png

[ThunderForce]

Just insane. This is probably one of the biggest modelcanes I've seen in quite a while.