Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

[Ed Mahmoud]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
ISSUED 437 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2008

(snip)

MODELS (GFS/ECMWF) HAVE BEEN PORTRAYING THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOMETHING TROPICAL TRYING TO GET ORGANIZED IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN LATE NEXT WEEK. DONT HAVE A HANDLE FOR HOW WELL THE
GLOBAL MODELS WILL DO WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEMS SPINNING UP THIS
YEAR AFTER ALL OF THE MODEL TWEAKS AND PARAMETER CHANGES OVER THE
WINTER SEASON...WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT DOWN THERE BUT NOT EXPECTING
MUCH YET.

Did Environment Canada fix the 'crazy uncle' model, or at least try?

[cycloneye]

5/23/08 12z GFS at 114 Hours Something trying to get started just north of Panama.

12z GFS at 144 Hours Still a Weak low North of Panama.

12z GFS at 156 Hours Nothing New.

12z GFS at 168 Hours Low trying to organize east of Nicaragua.

12z GFS at 204 Hours A lopsided system in Western Caribbean.

[Ed Mahmoud]

5/23/08 12z GFS at 114 Hours Something trying to get started just north of Panama.

12z GFS at 144 Hours Still a Weak low North of Panama.

12z GFS at 156 Hours Nothing New.

12z GFS at 168 Hours Low trying to organize east of Nicaragua.

12z GFS at 204 Hours A lopsided system in Western Caribbean.

I wonder what the GFS does with the 1010 mb low off Africa?

[cycloneye]

12z GFS Loop

Interesting loop that has Florida Penninsula very wet.

[Ed Mahmoud]

12z GFS Loop

Interesting loop that has Florida Penninsula very wet.

If it rains enough in the Kissimmee/Okeechobee/Everglades watershed, and keeps the wildfires away from Daytona and the Coke Zero 400 on Fourth of July weekend, it is all good.

[Vortex]

Still looks like it could be a big rain event for central/south florida in 7-10 days. Also, the Epac system surely looks like a go as support from most of the long range guidance is unanimous.

Wouldn't be surprised to see a hurricane south of acaulpalco late next week with a developing weak low over the sw carribean drifting NW. Epac system should move slowly west and the developing low over the western carribean a slow drift N/NW with heavy convection mainly N and NE of the center.

GFS H+288

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_288l.gif

[Ed Mahmoud]

12z GFS Loop

Interesting loop that has Florida Penninsula very wet.

If it rains enough in the Kissimmee/Okeechobee/Everglades watershed, and keeps the wildfires away from Daytona and the Coke Zero 400 on Fourth of July weekend, it is all good.

Not bothering to look at all the beyond Day 10 stuff, but the low pressure heads, sort of, West, the rain East towards Florida, before a new low develops, seeming to suggest the GFS is forecasting a badly sheared system when it reaches the Gulf.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Still looks like it could be a big rain event for central/south florida in 7-10 days. Also, the Epac system surely looks like a go as support from most of the long range guidance is unanimous.

Wouldn't be surprised to see a hurricane south of acaulpalco late next week with a developing weak low over the sw carribean drifting NW. Epac system should move slowly west and the developing low over the western carribean a slow drift N/NW with heavy convection mainly N and NE of the center.

GFS H+288

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_288l.gif

Usually, just from casual observation, a system in the East Pac close to Mexico/Central America precludes immediate development of a Western Gulf or Caribbean system.

[Frank2]

I'm all for the rain - rain is good - as long as it isn't in the form of a landfalling hurricane...

We've been about 90-95 every day since May 3, so, South Florida is ready for some rain and coolness...

[flwxwatcher]

Still looks like it could be a big rain event for central/south florida in 7-10 days. Also, the Epac system surely looks like a go as support from most of the long range guidance is unanimous.

Wouldn't be surprised to see a hurricane south of acaulpalco late next week with a developing weak low over the sw carribean drifting NW. Epac system should move slowly west and the developing low over the western carribean a slow drift N/NW with heavy convection mainly N and NE of the center.

GFS H+288

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_288l.gif

Usually, just from casual observation, a system in the East Pac close to Mexico/Central America precludes immediate development of a Western Gulf or Caribbean system.

Agreed. I wouldn't be surprised with EPAC development but I am not holding my breath on Caribbean development. Still, it will be interesting to watch in the longer range what happens.

[Ed Mahmoud]

New Euro brings what looks like a strong system into Pacific coast of Mexico near Tehuanepec (sp?), on Day 8, emerging into Bay of Campeche, and restrengthening slightly by Day 10.

Steering looks like a solid ridge of protection for the entire US Gulf Coast at 500 mb, I'd guess slow movement, or a turn West, if the Euro is correct. Although maybe just enough hint of a weakness near Alabama/Florida Panhandle to make it interesting.

[Category 5]

I hope most of you realize that the GFS that far out is for entertainment purposes. You'll see that the majority of this season most models, if not all. Will not verify even remotely close to a 300hr run. I know it's for fun and that's why we're here. But don't get your hopes up. I just hope we get some needed rain here.

[NDG]

I guess what all models agree on is if anything forms whether it is in the Pacific side or Caribbean side or both, it will track towards the BOC-southern GOM by the weekend of next week.

[KWT]

I think what the 12z ECM shows has a fair chance of occuring. The GFS is still trying to form the system on the Caribbean side of land whilst the ECM is still very keen on developing quite a strong looking system in the EPAC, though tonights run is a twist on that idea as the system emerges back into the BOC and starts to re-strengthen, I personally wouldn't be surprised if this set-up occurs though I don't think the system would survive the crossing unless it was about as strong as the ECM suggests, which would easily be a hurricane IMO.

Anyway whatever happens all models develop a tropical cyclone in the next 5-7 days, its just a matter of placement I suppose?

[Aric Dunn]

120 18z


132 hr
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_132m.gif

[cycloneye]

18z GFS at 132 Hours It starts to show the Caribbean low and also has a EPAC low.

18z GFS at 156 Hours The two lows are there.

18z GFS at 192 Hours Lopsided low in Western Caribbean.

18z GFS at 252 Hours Poof!

[NDG]

It still has a low in the EPAC though not as strong as its 12z run.
One thing for sure that it is not giving up in that the main energy will be in the southern Caribbean.

[KWT]

Yep the 18z still progging the main energy in the SW caribbean whilst the ECM keeps on placing the main energy in the EPAC, one of these models is wrong I suspect because I'd be highly surprised if both systems formed so close in this type of situation.

Wonder what track the 18z will have this low take this time???

[jaxfladude]

WOW
(all the above)

[KWT]

The 12z GFS still develops this low and sends it towards Cuba however it weakens and opens up as a system starts to form in the EPAC just as it starts to weaken around 204hrs.