Long Range Models

[KWT]

Hmm models can be wrong and we've seen at times models totally miss or bust on tropical features. Too early to say if that will occur here.

As has been said on here it is possible for something from the Cape Verde to slowly organise as it gets further west just like Bertha did, though its rare they would get anything close to Bertha's strength from a cape Verde wave at this time of year. Still we have to wait and see.

Models are in good agreement that a closed low will form and so its quite possible that we may eventually see an invest from this wave and the wave ahead should take a blow from the SAL as well. SSt's are probably high enough as well now I suspect as long as it doesn't exit too far north, the further south any circulation forms the better for this system.
Long term prospects all depend whether it can negoiate the shear minefield still out in the Atlantic at this time of year.

[Derek Ortt]

it would be ironic if Bertha is an early July CV storm twice

[Category 5]

it would be ironic if Bertha is an early July CV storm twice

two incredibly rare storms by the same name would be something.

[NDG]

One thing for sure is that the last couple of tropical waves have cleaned out or dented out the CV area of SAL, so this tropical wave exiting the African coast tomorrow will have a good shut of developing if it stays below 15N

[Frank2]

Hi Meso,

I mentioned the SST's yesterday because one or two others mentioned the lower than normal temps in the Eastern Atlantic, and, because of the presence of a large "cold"-air strato-cu field to the west of the CVI, which is another sign of fairly cool SST's, which would damper anything that might try to form...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/VIS/20.jpg

(the above photo link will be blank at night)

I agree with Derek that another early July Bertha would be ironic, for sure - I recall the 1996 Bertha well (I was living in PB County at the time) - we'll see, though I'll stress again that yesterday's "monster" wave "poofed out" in a big way, counter to what it looked like over land just 24 hours earlier...

[Category 5]

Hi Meso,

I mentioned the SST's yesterday because one or two others mentioned the lower than normal temps in the Eastern Atlantic, and, because of the presence of a large cold-air strato-cu field to the west of the CVI, which is another sign of cool SST's, which would damper anything that might try to form...

I agree with Derek that another early July Bertha would be ironic, for sure - I recall the 1996 Bertha well (I was living in PB County at the time) - we'll see, though I'll stress again that yesterday's "monster" wave "poofed out" in a big way, counter to what it looked like over land just 24 hours earlier...

And there's a high probability that this will do the same.

[KWT]

Frank, firstly SST's are decently above normal there, thats the facts and if anyone says otherwise they are wrong, simple as that.

Secondly you are right that wave did poof out though its not totally gone ther eis still some convective flare-up along the axis. Still how much of that weakening was due to the SST's still not being high enough or because of the stable air coming from Africa I'm not sure.

[Frank2]

Actually, I mentioned the SST's because of the strato-cu visible more than anyone's comment, since the stratus is a sure sign of cooler temperatures...

[Derek Ortt]

The GOM may be the more likely of the two places with a wave interacting with a surface trough

[srainhoutx]

The GOM may be the more likely of the two places with a wave interacting with a surface trough

My thoughts exactly. Considering that the Euro, GFS and CMC are sniffing out something late in the week.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The GOM may be the more likely of the two places with a wave interacting with a surface trough

My thoughts exactly. Considering that the Euro, GFS and CMC are sniffing out something late in the week.

Don't need it anymore. Would have loved it a week ago, but we have gotten enough rain this past week, a good beach weekend for Independence Day weekend is fine with me.

[srainhoutx]

The GOM may be the more likely of the two places with a wave interacting with a surface trough

My thoughts exactly. Considering that the Euro, GFS and CMC are sniffing out something late in the week.

Don't need it anymore. Would have loved it a week ago, but we have gotten enough rain this past week, a good beach weekend for Independence Day weekend is fine with me.

I agree. With a house full company arriving Wednesday, and a Big 4th of July Party on Friday, I hope this is just a model fantasy.

[cycloneye]

The 12z run of the GFS or NCEP model has started to run.Lets see what it shows as the expectations are high for some development in the Atlantic Basin after the last runs from this model and other global models.

[Derek Ortt]

I am not sure that the GOM solution is fantasy. That seems like a reasonable solution based upon the setup we will likely have at the end of the week

[cycloneye]

Lets see if I can post the times of the run in one post to not make one post for one hour and another post to another hour.

30 hours

42 Hours Low Pressure SE of CV islands.

54 Hours Low Pressure Southsoutheast of CV islands.Nothing at GOM yet.

66 Hours Weak low south of CV islands.Nothing at GOM yet.

84 Hours Low Pressure WSW of CV islands.Nothing at GOM yet.

96 Hours Low Pressure at 35w WSW of CV islands.Nothing at GOM yet.

108 Hours 1010 mb low getting close to 40w.Nothing at GOM yet.

138 Hours Low Pressure at 43w moving westward.Low Pressure at BOC.

150 Hours Low Pressure moving now WNW.No low at BOC but plenty of clouds.

162 Hours Low Pressure continues to move WNW.Low reappears at BOC.New weak low SE of CV islands.

174 Hours Low Pressure tracks to the NE of Leeward islands.No low at BOC.Low South of CV islands.

252 Hours Wave NE of Leewards,plenty of moistere in west GOM,more waves comming off Africa.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Here is the loop.I think after 300 hours is fantasyland.Thread reopens.

[cycloneye]

Lets see what CMC,NOGAPS,UKMET and the EURO say later after the GFS 12z run.

[KWT]

I am not sure that the GOM solution is fantasy. That seems like a reasonable solution based upon the setup we will likely have at the end of the week

We've seen tropical systems develop from such set-ups before, esp early in the season so it may be worth watching, though only the CMC really does anything at all, there isn't much in the way of model support for it at all. Still sometimes the models are stubbornly wrong, we have to wait and see.

[Cyclone1]

it would be ironic if Bertha is an early July CV storm twice

two incredibly rare storms by the same name would be something.

Kinda like Allison.

[cycloneye]

12z CMC The Canadian model shows a low pressure moving west but weakens a bit after it passes 40w.A second area leaves africa.Also at the end of run there is something in the western GOM.

[KWT]

Yep it does but note it comes from a tropical cyclone that the CMC forms in the EPAC which it forms in 72hrs time. (Not 96E but a fresh new one)