Disturbed area in East Atlantic (No Development)

[Scorpion]

Euro at 240

[cycloneye]

Interesting Marine discussion by NHC:

TUE THROUGH THU...THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL
RELAX BY THE LONG-RANGE PERIODS AND WILL ALLOW THE TRADES TO
DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY THU. ELSEWHERE...A TRPCL WAVE NEAR 39W
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS 55W BY WED AND HIGH PRES IN ITS WAKE WILL
STRENGTHEN THE TRADES TO 20 KT AFTER IT PASSES MAINLY OVER THE
NE PART OF THE TRPCL N ATLC ZONE. . THEREAFTER...A SECOND WAVE
NEAR THE AFRICAN COAST IS EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR 45W BY THU AND
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DECENT CONFIDENCE THAT AN AREA OF LOW
PRES WILL BE ALONG THE WAVE. SYSTEM HAS A CHANCE TO DEVELOP BUT REGARDLESS IT WILL LIKELY
BEGIN TO SPREAD STRONGER WINDS E OF THE ISLANDS BY THU NIGHT.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... ATS&max=61

[cheezyWXguy]

I think its the thing near 30W that GFS develops this time. Last time it was the one near 40

The one near 20 should be a weak TS

Well see...hell, they could all develop. I dont think it really matters which wave it develops though. It could be any of them. The truth is that we just need to wait and see, because this could be bad situation, no matter which one develops

[Derek Ortt]

its best if the back one develops

then there could be SAL issues

If one of the leading ones develop, the SAL impacts would be less

[GeneratorPower]

no it has NOT been consistent

GFS has consistently been developing A LOW PRESSURE, but not the SAME LOW PRESSURE

There is inconsistency in the model

What I think is likely is a weak TS developing in the E Atl from the wave that is emerging. The major storm that GFS is developing quite possible is fantasy

You're telling me that a TS is going to develop in the East Atlantic and just stay a weak TS? What on earth makes you think that a major hurricane in mid August off the coast of Africa is fantasy? Your argument doesn't make good "walkin' around" sense to this country boy.

[HURAKAN]

Visible:

[GeneratorPower]

Plenty of energy emerging the coast. The players are now entering the field and it's game time.

[ConvergenceZone]

I hate to rain on everyone's parade, but, there's nothing out there at this time, folks, other than the per usual ITCZ convection:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

Dr. Lyons mentioned this morning that perhaps something might (might) develop out of the same area, but, even he said it's unknown at this time...

There are about 100 waves that cross the Atlantic during the season, but, only a fraction develop into anything significant, so, have a nice weekend...

I think you are forgetting the time of year we are getting into though Frank. Last year these waves coming off of African NEVER looked this good, nor did we have this large amount of good ones coming off the coast...So something has to give soon or later, and with the conditions improving, I'm betting it's sooner, so I disagree. I do agree that nothing is going to happen today or tomorrow, so if that's what's you meant, then yes I do agree with you...But we are talking about next week and the week after, and THEN, the floodgates may be open..

[HURAKAN]

Convection not very strong but should increase in the morning.

Frank, I think you're forgetting that tropical waves are part of the ITCZ. Cyclones develop when these waves move away from it.

[Derek Ortt]

doesn't matter what time of year it is

in early July, conditions were FAVORABLE for development and a wave that became a major developed immediately after moving into the Atlantic

We do not have a wave remotely close to the intensity that Bertha was

as I said, I expect a weak, SAL affected TS out of this wave in about 3-5 days. I do not see something to be concerned about AT THIS TIME

[GeneratorPower]

Again, I am not understanding why people are bearish about hurricanes forming in mid August in the Atlantic basin, with a favorable MJO pulse coming back around, with sufficient SSTs and lack of a major SAL outbreak, and shear looking pretty low, and the fact that this season is already ahead of schedule.

Wake up and smell the coffee people. ACE is about to start climbing.

EDIT: My up-arrow is referring to Frank2's post, not Derek's.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[SouthFloridawx]

UKMET joins the combo of models,although very weak showing.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ukm/2008080712/slp24.png

Luis,

What you just posted was actually the run two days ago 12Z 08/07/08. What I posted a little earlier is the correct run for today 12Z 8/09/08...

This is for today @ 12Z:
Showing a more organized system than that run.

[SouthFloridawx]

Euro at 240

That is interesting, the Euro wasn't really showing anything on the 00Z run. I wonder if it will continue through the next runs.

[cheezyWXguy]

I see a well defined circulation off the coast of africa, and I believe that one of the areas out in the catl/eatl will start showing signs of organization soon. This is like what happened with the formation of 94L...no one saw it until it really started looking good. It seemed to pop out of nowhere. That seems sort of like what the gfs predicts. Im going to step away from my usual way of putting out my expectations, and just sit back and watch it. Well see whos right.

[cycloneye]

That 12z EURO run is very interesting and equals what GFS is showing.

[GeneratorPower]

I see a well defined circulation off the coast of africa, and I believe that one of the areas out in the catl/eatl will start showing signs of organization soon. This is like what happened with the formation of 94L...no one saw it until it really started looking good. It seemed to pop out of nowhere. That seems sort of like what the gfs predicts. Im going to step away from my usual way of putting out my expectations, and just sit back and watch it. Well see whos right.

Good post, and definately the best way to handle it. The models have been working very well this year and should be given a lot of attention when they are forecasting development in a region.

[ConvergenceZone]

doesn't matter what time of year it is

in early July, conditions were FAVORABLE for development and a wave that became a major developed immediately after moving into the Atlantic

We do not have a wave remotely close to the intensity that Bertha was

as I said, I expect a weak, SAL affected TS out of this wave in about 3-5 days. I do not see something to be concerned about AT THIS TIME

and that's why I'm saying in the next couple of weeks, not now.....Now was never implied.

[deltadog03]

Well, Euro only backs up the thinking that the SE could be in for some fun times ahead. Obviously we would be fools to take these models verbatum....However, With that blocking high across the EC and especially over the NE, that will block anything going out and push it west. Can't believe EURO And GFS are fairly consistant around with this cyclone...specially 240 hrs. out.

[MiamiensisWx]

My original unadultered ideas remain unaltered. Personally, although some people have pointed to contrary evidence, I believe the system immediately west of the African coast will develop. Currently, the wave axis has moved off the coast today, and low level 850 mb vorticity has been increasing in the vicinity of 12-14 N and 19-25 W. Satellite imagery indicates convection is increasing in this vicinity, while a broad mid level circulation is evident as well. Evidence suggests the formation of a weak surface low within the defined area (near 19-21 W) will occur over the next ~24-26 hours. SAL/capping is minimal, as I previously mentioned. Synoptic/thermodynamic data strongly supports tropical cyclogenesis originating from this area as well.

I can't see the "phantom TC" claims' basis, and I'm certainly not -removed- for development or against it.

The following post is NOT an official prognosis.

Convection is increasing between 19-21 W, as I originally anticipated.

Graphical summary:

http://img175.imageshack.us/img175/8678/africanwaveaug9081sp3.png

EUMETSAT data:

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/listImages.pl?m=prod,a=0,sa=9,pr=MPEF,f=1,c=MPE,se=4,n=6,d=1,v=400,pp=0

A (very) preliminary analog in regards to the track and initial heading may be Luis of 1995 if the system develops.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1995/LUIS/track.gif

Note: Analog is NOT based on intensity.

[Derek Ortt]

no it has NOT been consistent

GFS has consistently been developing A LOW PRESSURE, but not the SAME LOW PRESSURE

There is inconsistency in the model

What I think is likely is a weak TS developing in the E Atl from the wave that is emerging. The major storm that GFS is developing quite possible is fantasy

You're telling me that a TS is going to develop in the East Atlantic and just stay a weak TS? What on earth makes you think that a major hurricane in mid August off the coast of Africa is fantasy? Your argument doesn't make good "walkin' around" sense to this country boy.

and what are you basing your thoughts off of? Please share with everyone

to all... I am in a very foul mood today... received not the best of news... so please don't test my patience today