The Official 2010 Season Cancel Thread (NO MAJOR LANDFALLS!

[ConvergenceZone]

Blah...Gaston's chances of regeneration appear to be nil. I'm not optimistic about the Bay of Campeche system. All systems appear to be go for a significant lull.

Talk about a misfire!


Season Cancel is dead. We may as well close this thread. Naysayers lost.

Well, so far this year is the year of the weak landfalling storms and recurves.... So far you can't argue that point....

[Florida1118]

The rate we are going since Danielle formed 16 days ago we have now seen 5 storms. I mean geez...do the math on that, if we continued this current pace 100% through September and the beginning of October and perhaps 25% of the pace in Mid October to November, we would be in 2005's range. It's just madness.

Well that is no doubt. Also with La-nina this could well go into Nov.

[Weatherfreak000]

Blah...Gaston's chances of regeneration appear to be nil. I'm not optimistic about the Bay of Campeche system. All systems appear to be go for a significant lull.

Talk about a misfire!


Season Cancel is dead. We may as well close this thread. Naysayers lost.

Well, so far this year is the year of the weak landfalling storms and recurves.... So far you can't argue that point....

So what.....when your season cancel argument tanked the rules now change? Gimme a break!


It only takes ONE. Chances are good it'll happen, but hey if it doesn't I don't think anyone will really mind.

[gatorcane]

The rate we are going since Danielle formed 16 days ago we have now seen 5 storms. I mean geez...do the math on that, if we continued this current pace 100% through September and the beginning of October and perhaps 25% of the pace in Mid October to November, we would be in 2005's range. It's just madness.

Right but since there are no landfalling systems for the united states and Caribbean thus far....many seem to think it's season cancel time.

It doesn't matter if we have 30 named systems, if they are all fish few seem to care.

[Weatherfreak000]

The rate we are going since Danielle formed 16 days ago we have now seen 5 storms. I mean geez...do the math on that, if we continued this current pace 100% through September and the beginning of October and perhaps 25% of the pace in Mid October to November, we would be in 2005's range. It's just madness.

Right but since there are no landfalling systems for the united states and Caribbean thus far....many seem to think it's season cancel time.

It doesn't matter if we have 30 named systems, if they are all fish few seem to care.

I have definitely picked up on that Gatorcane trust me...I mean geez though, are we forgetting this IS a La Nina season? You should totally expect troughiness and recurvature. At the same time you can also be weary of landfalling GOM September canes...as well as SFL threats.

But hey...if we get 30 storms...can anyone REALLY gonna convince themself they are ALL gonna recurve? I wish you guys would take my bets here...I swear i'd make a KILLING

[ConvergenceZone]

:

So what.....when your season cancel argument tanked the rules now change? Gimme a break!

If you find a quote where I said "please cancel 2010, as nothing is going to develop" please share it with me...

On a side note, I will say that nothing about this season has impressed me so far.
The reason why? Because the media built it up to be "oh so horrifying" LOL....

[Florida1118]

:

So what.....when your season cancel argument tanked the rules now change? Gimme a break!

If you find a quote where I said "please cancel 2010, as nothing is going to develop" please share it with me...

On a side note, I will say that nothing about this season has impressed me so far.
The reason why? Because the media built it up to be "oh so horrifying" LOL....

Oh the Media. For all TWC haters, they dont scream the sky is falling at every storm...But Brian Norcross has very good ideas on Media control during a significant landfall. If only he were president. lol

[psyclone]

i'll be the first to admit i was flummoxed by the dearth of cyclone activity back in mid august but i never wavered in my belief that things would come to life big time. and while i still believe my pre season guess (18-10-6) will wind up too high, it is certainly possible we will get close as la nina seasons are frequently 2nd half loaded. with development likely shifting to the western caribbean and gulf, i suspect the second half of this season will be the more dangerous, by far.

[jinftl]

I would caution anyone from assuming that because the storms we have seen so far this season have been weak when they have impacted land or they have been fish that this is a trend that will carry through to the rest of the season.

As we move from September into October, our attentions turn from the Cape Verde storms to the Western Carribean. This is the area of the Atlantic basin with the highest tchp (tropical cyclone heat potential)....in other words, high octane fuel for storms. Think of storms like Mitch and Wilma...where they have formed...and what time of year they have formed.

In terms of steering, it is the very troughs that may have turned some cape verdes out to sea before directly impacting the u.s. that can take storms in the western caribbean and propel them north and northeast to cuba and florida.

In 2004, by September 6, 48% of the damage of that destructive season ($24.1 billion) and 98.9% of the storm-related deaths (3121 out of 3161 for the season basin wide) had yet to occur.

[gatorcane]

Something just seems off with this season that really makes me wonder if it will be hyperactive. Looking back since 1995 seems this is just another typical season thus far. Difference is that nothing significant seems to be impacting the united states or caribbean so far with only brushes from systems to date.

[boca]

Brownsviile,Texas will not forget the 2010 hurricane season thats for sure.

[jinftl]

How are you defining hyperactive...impacts to land or # of storms total, regardless of track? If you look at impact to land, 1992 was hyperactive...the entire season had 7 named storms, but one of them was Andrew.

Per the NHC, from 1950-2005, an average season would have a total of 10.3 named storms, 6.2 hurricanes, and 2.7 major hurricanes for the entire season.

As of September 7....3 days before the halfway point peak of the season, we are at 8 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. No way to avoid the conclusion that we are well ahead of where we should be in terms of named storms season to date.

Something just seems off with this season that really makes me wonder if it will be hyperactive. Looking back since 1995 seems this is just another typical season thus far. Difference is that nothing significant seems to be impacting the united states or caribbean so far with only brushes from systems to date.

[dwsqos2]

With Hermine over Texas, I fear that I can only forecast a SiGnIfIcAnT LuLl.

[psyclone]

i expect a significant lull as well. commencing in november. in the interim we have an interesting quandry. the peak of the season is sept 10 and as i recall there is a 90% liklihood of a named tropical cyclone somewhere in the atlantic basin on sept 10 so either we're about to buck history or something is gonna pop soon.

[ConvergenceZone]

well, it's hard to say how long the lull is going to last. 2 weeks? 3 weeks? I too see a lull coming though. It's not as if the models are crazy with activity at the moment

[Steve]

>>Something just seems off with this season that really makes me wonder if it will be hyperactive...

You're too good of a poster to be trotting that kind of nonsense out. Nothing is "off" with the season at all. It is its own thing. It's up to the "H" storm with the bulk of the season left to go. Gonna end up in the mid-teens, and mid-teens in named storms isn't "off" nor is it negatively different from most other seasons since '95 except that it's likely going to end up one of the more active in terms of named storms and ACE that we've had in this cycle.

Then you say nothing seems to be impacting the US or Caribbean. What? So far out of 8 named storms, 4 have impacted the United States with tropical storm conditions (Alex, Bonnie, Earl, Hermine). Then there are two TD's that landfalled and some other unclassified stuff that did as well. It seems like you're pouting or something. I don't get it.

[HurrMark]

The rate we are going since Danielle formed 16 days ago we have now seen 5 storms. I mean geez...do the math on that, if we continued this current pace 100% through September and the beginning of October and perhaps 25% of the pace in Mid October to November, we would be in 2005's range. It's just madness.

Right but since there are no landfalling systems for the united states and Caribbean thus far....many seem to think it's season cancel time.

It doesn't matter if we have 30 named systems, if they are all fish few seem to care.

Bonnie made landfall as a TS in the US...and there was also TD Two...

[Steve]

Oh and not to throw gasoline on the fire or anything, but to say, "Difference is that nothing significant seems to be impacting the united states or caribbean so far with only brushes from systems to date." on a day where potentially 10 million Americans are affected by tropical storm or near tropical storm conditions is just out of the box.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This thread was supposed to be a joke LOL...but people are being serious...

This season has been very, very active so far to be honest.
We had 2 cat 4's last week...

Now if you really want to get some action head over to the Sky Diving simulator
in Orlando, FL Museum...ride the 120 mph vertical winds and get your category 3-
that would be a major hurricane. This Category 3 does not do any damage or destruction.

[Cyclone1]

2 Cat 4's? Pssh, I've seen more impressive hurricane seasons in the Mediterranean Sea.