Wave WSW of CV Islands

[somethingfunny]

This area now looks much stronger than 90L. We'll have to see how long the convection persists and how they interact. If/when they merge, would 90L be deactivated with the broader area becoming 91L?

[KWT]

Pobably wil lstay 90L given 90L came first and still has some evidence of a circulation, but they will merge both features I'd have thought. The only way they up to 91L is if it looks like it may form before merging...

[cycloneye]

Since 90L is now gone, I reopened this thread until a new invest is up for this wave,so post away.

[Aric Dunn]

I think the whole area looks a hell of a lot better this morning than it did all day yesterday... a lot of convection and wave that left africa has caught up with the old 90L

[cycloneye]

Here is a panoramic view of the area of interest.

[Aric Dunn]

[Blown Away]

What models if any are still predicting development?

[Aric Dunn]

What models if any are still predicting development?

Ukmet,GFS, CMC, nogaps... almost all of them..

[cycloneye]

Aric, how much time you see as of right now for this to start to develop? Yesterday you said 36 hours.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, how much time you see as of right now for this to start to develop? Yesterday you said 36 hours.

well the 36 hours was for the merging I said starting monday we should see it start getting its act together..

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, how much time you see as of right now for this to start to develop? Yesterday you said 36 hours.

well the 36 hours was for the merging I said starting monday we should see it start getting its act together..

this what i wrote yesterday morning...

If the idea is somewhat new to you there was some good discussions about it at the beginning of this thread but more so down in the thread "blob at 30w" this merging was expected but your right the time it takes for such interactions to occur take various times depending many factors. On a side note and mentioned sometime ago was that since the wave off africa is quite a bit larger then the original 90L, it will likely be the dominate low. both seem to have decent low level turning, however the wave off africa has a much more expansive wind field. sunday or monday is a good bet, but we should really start to see the systems begin to interact more later tonight and tomorrow with some sort of more distinct surface feature beginning to develop on sunday sometime. Any upgrade wont likely happen till monday ( if at all). As for track... as long as it stays weak it will stay on a more west track and once it gets a little more organized a wnw track should take place. the GFDL and HWRF are just way too fast and this can easily be seen when you look at the current motion of the systems.... they are moving slow. the intensity is of course tricky but once a well defined center becomes established strengthening to a hurricane pretty quickly is very possible as all forecast call for low shear and good moisture envelope. all in all we get to wait as you said... lol

[knotimpaired]

Doubt me as you wish but I do think PR is going to be hit by the now unmentioned 90L.

Now my plan of action is to move our Van that is at Farjardo's port to higher ground.

[Riptide]

Not sure why this area was discontinued as an invest. It looks better than it ever did and a broad circulation remains that is now triggering deep convective development.

I'd say there is probably a 75 % chance this develops.

[Aric Dunn]

Not sure why this area was discontinued as an invest. It looks better than it ever did and a broad circulation remains that is now triggering deep convective development.

I'd say there is probably a 75 % chance this develops.

well its because the wave that was 90L has or is being absorbed in the larger wave behind it.. so it no longer has its identity..

[cycloneye]

Doubt me as you wish but I do think PR is going to be hit by the now unmentioned 90L.

Now my plan of action is to move our Van that is at Farjardo's port to higher ground.

I think is premature to say for sure if this system will develop into a strong cyclone and also what track it may take. But what is a sure thing is that the peak of the season is drawing closer and we have to be prepared for any big threats that may come to the NE Caribbean in your case and mine. IMO, I would wait 3 days to see how things are evolving east of us, to see if is a invest again, to see if it organizes into a Tropical Cyclone and third, which track will it take once it develops (If it does) . The bottomline is, lets continue to watch this wave in the next few days to see what finnally comes out from it, but lets be prepared not only for this one, but for any future threats in the next 6-8 weeks.

[Riptide]

Not sure why this area was discontinued as an invest. It looks better than it ever did and a broad circulation remains that is now triggering deep convective development.

I'd say there is probably a 75 % chance this develops.

well its because the wave that was 90L has or is being absorbed in the larger wave behind it.. so it no longer has its identity..

The original area of 90L included both of these waves and it is still worth investigating.

[cycloneye]

91L should be up this afternoon or evening.

[Aric Dunn]

91L should be up this afternoon or evening.

yeah they are probably just updating to include the merged waves..

[Weatherfreak000]

I agree with the call they made on this. After the two areas merge it will be the African Wave that will develop, therefore it should be named 91L

[cycloneye]

Aric, what do you think is at the circle?