What is the future of this season?

[Aquawind]

Might be a week or so before things change for a Florida landfall. Serious drying out post Nichole.
2-3 more systems in the Basin would be my guess.

[psyclone]

it is amazingly sterile and dry here...downright autumnal. the low dewpoints + longer nights are helping the nearshore waters to cool quite rapidly here in the tampa bay area. as always it isn't over until it's over but october, a generally dangerous month for peninsular florida, is off to a very benign start.

[gilbert88]

Your making this assertion on October 1st....I mean...alright. Good luck with that prediction and i'll be here to discuss after the fact why a ripe La Nina didn't produce the usual late season activity La Nina's are associated for. I believe also strong majors have landfalled in the GOM and the early season looking remarkably similar to ours thus far- all in October.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

This is the 1904 La Nina. Notice the late season tracks, and notice how common Opal-like hurricanes can be.

1910, SFL October Cat 3.
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

The 1916 La Nina had an interesting October I think and I have noticed the tracks all start in the same place all the action is occuring now, the W Carb.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html
SFL monster

Alot of reason to believe this season is far from over.

Just remember Weatherfreak000, 2010 isn't all of those years that you mentioned. Every year is completely different, and who's to say that those years didn't have IDEAL conditions out int he Atlantic/Carib/Gulf for development. The conditions we are seeing out there right now are far from ideal.... You just can't say that just because those La Nina years were busier, automtically means that this year is going to be busier. Every year is completely different....
For example, just look at the last 3 weeks how difficult it's been for a wave to get going, EVEN THOUGH, the models were showing pretty robust development...

So when do you think the tropical floodgates are going to open? late October? November? December?

This is almost a copy/paste job from what you said in August. One day you will eventually be right... probably in mid-November.

So the season basically ended 3 weeks ago, right before mid-September?
I'll remind you about this post when the next major forms in the Caribbean.

[Weatherfreak000]

^^^
I almost hate to have to do this...I guess it speaks for itself though doesn't it?

EIGHT TROPICAL STORMS FORMED IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN DURING THE MONTH
OF SEPTEMBER. THREE OF THESE STORMS...IGOR...JULIA...AND KARL...
BECAME MAJOR HURRICANES...AND LISA REACHED HURRICANE STATUS. THESE
NUMBERS ARE WELL ABOVE THE LONG-TERM (1944-2009) AVERAGES OF 4
TROPICAL STORMS...2 HURRICANES...AND ABOUT 1 MAJOR HURRICANE FOR THE
MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. ALSO...THE FORMATION OF EIGHT NAMED STORMS
TIES 2002 FOR THE RECORD NUMBER OF NAMED STORMS FORMING IN THE
MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY...
ACE...WHICH MEASURES THE COMBINED STRENGTH AND DURATION OF TROPICAL
STORMS AND HURRICANES...TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY IN SEPTEMBER WAS
ABOUT 78 PERCENT ABOVE AVERAGE.[/QUOTE]

So.....we should go from one month record development to.....nada...hmm. Not buying it.

[ConvergenceZone]

gilbert88 says: This is almost a copy/paste job from what you said in August. One day you will eventually be right... probably in mid-November.

So the season basically ended 3 weeks ago, right before mid-September?
I'll remind you about this post when the next major forms in the Caribbean.

While I can't speak for this year, I've been right in certain previous years when some have said that it would be active until December, only to see the season shut off at the beginning of October. I have never tooted my horn about that, but perhaps I should.

A trend I notice is that if someone thinks the rest of the season is going to be very active and they comment on it, you never hear anything about it. Nobody ever comes down on them whatsoever. But if someone dares to say they think that there won't be much more activity for the rest of the season(regardless if they end up being right or wrong), then they are tarred and feathered.... What's the rationale behind that?

[KWT]

CZ, the stats show there will be at least 1 more storm....out of the 26 La Nina's that can be trusted to be La Nina's since 1900 EVERY single one had had something form in either October or November...100% record.

Given how amazingly busy September is your gonna probably bust if you make the call right now of the season shutting down...it could do of course...but that would be unheard off even in the super unfavourable cold phase AMO seasons where shear just destroyed everything of note, eg some of the 70s seasons.

That being said who knows what we'll have, I'd be prepared to bet alot of money we end up with another major from this zone but maybe not...

[ConvergenceZone]

CZ, the stats show there will be at least 1 more storm....out of the 26 La Nina's that can be trusted to be La Nina's since 1900 EVERY single one had had something form in either October or November...100% record.

Given how amazingly busy September is your gonna probably bust if you make the call right now of the season shutting down...it could do of course...but that would be unheard off even in the super unfavourable cold phase AMO seasons where shear just destroyed everything of note, eg some of the 70s seasons.

That being said who knows what we'll have, I'd be prepared to bet alot of money we end up with another major from this zone but maybe not...

Thanks for your comments KWT. Oh I'm not saying it's shutting down completely. But certains folks (gilbert88 for example) tends to think that because I think there may only be 1 or 2 more storms that I mean that everything is shutting down. I never ever said that we would not have 1 or 2 more tropical disturbances the rest of the year.
I'll get back on topic now, but it's just that when words are put in my mouth it makes me very angry, sorry....

I'll get back on topic now.....

[hurricaneCW]

I agree that having no more named storms for the rest of the season is almost impossible given previous moderate to strong La Nina years. This season we have the added bonus of the very warm heat content in the Caribbean, Gulf, and the Florida straits.

I think we could get Otto within the next 6-10 days or earlier.

[Ptarmigan]

And Bonnie doesnt count?

My bad. Sorry. Bonnie was not that remarkable.

[Ptarmigan]

Might be a week or so before things change for a Florida landfall. Serious drying out post Nichole.
2-3 more systems in the Basin would be my guess.

The dry air is like RAID for tropical cyclones.

[jinftl]

If only the environment was static....no coincidence that the breeding ground for storms as we move into October and November is quite often on the borderline of the dry push of air from the continental u.s. into the tropics....it is a veritable tug of war from the eastern gulf south into the northwest caribbean for the next 6-8 weeks even.

One thing that can never be underestimated is the latent heat build up in the nw caribbean....the tchp (tropical cyclone heat potenial) in the area from cuba to the cayman islands to the yucatan is even higher this year than it was in 2005. What that means is that the water is not only bathtub warm on the surface - it extends to some depth at that temperature. If dry air is the Raid for tropical systems, the water of the NW Caribbean is steroids for a developing system. Don't forget, this is the area that has bred late season beasts like Mitch and Wilma....not only incredibly strong october and november storms...these are the beasts that all other storms have to measure up against any time of year if they are going to make a play for infamy.

While there is no question there is dry air in the gulf now...it is not as clear cut as the image suggests even where i am in south florida...the atmosphere may be more stable the next few days, but the dewpoint is still hovering around 70 and the coolest low temp forecast here in fort lauderdale in the next week is 75 deg. The low to mid-80 degree surf temps aren't going anywhere until november either....

Might be a week or so before things change for a Florida landfall. Serious drying out post Nichole.
2-3 more systems in the Basin would be my guess.

The dry air is like RAID for tropical cyclones.

[Ptarmigan]

If only the environment was static....no coincidence that the breeding ground for storms as we move into October and November is quite often on the borderline of the dry push of air from the continental u.s. into the tropics....it is a veritable tug of war from the eastern gulf south into the northwest caribbean for the next 6-8 weeks even.

One thing that can never be underestimated is the latent heat build up in the nw caribbean....the tchp (tropical cyclone heat potenial) in the area from cuba to the cayman islands to the yucatan is even higher this year than it was in 2005. What that means is that the water is not only bathtub warm on the surface - it extends to some depth at that temperature. If dry air is the Raid for tropical systems, the water of the NW Caribbean is steroids for a developing system. Don't forget, this is the area that has bred late season beasts like Mitch and Wilma....not only incredibly strong october and november storms...these are the beasts that all other storms have to measure up against any time of year if they are going to make a play for infamy.

While there is no question there is dry air in the gulf now...it is not as clear cut as the image suggests even where i am in south florida...the atmosphere may be more stable the next few days, but the dewpoint is still hovering around 70 and the coolest low temp forecast here in fort lauderdale in the next week is 75 deg. The low to mid-80 degree surf temps aren't going anywhere until november either....

It would be nice of the environment was static. I wish they made RAID for tropical cyclones.

On a serious note, the Gulf of Mexico might be warmer in some spots, but TCHP is much less than NW Caribbean. Since the TCHP is much higher than 2005, I wonder if next season in 2011 will even be higher than in 2010? Something to think about. Also, 2011 name line up is the one used in 2005. I posted an article of how Texas can get hit by hurricanes in November. I always wonder if they too came from the Caribbean. Mind you that the last time Texas was hit by a hurricane in November was in 1839. No maps are known to exist. Hurricane records only go back to 1851.

I notice that late season storms in the Atlantic and in other basins have become monsterous and intense storms; Tip (WPAC), Mitch (ATL), Wilma (ATL), and Monica (SWP) formed late in the season. I wonder if anyone has ever studied why some late season storms have become very intense.

[Weatherfreak000]

This imo, is why it is ridiculous to assume we wont have an active October...


GFS shows two storms, both fishes...potentially develops 97L
CMC develops 97L
GFDL doesn't develop 97L however, it develops in the Central ATL. HWRF does the same. Both make 97L so, so close to getting closed off.
NOGAPS is really weird looking two storms I guess, developing 97L and a Caribbean low.

Consensus as far as Otto in the next 7 days is pretty good. We will see if the models verify...

[jinftl]

Could it be location that is contributing factor to the late season cat 5's like mitch and wilma? By that I mean that energy is focused in the nw caribbean due to waves coming in from the east and fronts bringing disturbances in from the north? I look at the area around the Cayman Islands to Cuba to the Yucatan as a powder keg...but without a bullet, nothing can 'fire'.

Perhaps it is not until late season that the gun gets loaded with potential bullets in this region? All I can say is that when we have seen on more than one occasion in the past 12 years systems with pressure readings under 910 mb after mid-October, this is clearly not a fluke (Mitch went down to 905 mb and Wilma hit at least 882 or 884 mb).

If only the environment was static....no coincidence that the breeding ground for storms as we move into October and November is quite often on the borderline of the dry push of air from the continental u.s. into the tropics....it is a veritable tug of war from the eastern gulf south into the northwest caribbean for the next 6-8 weeks even.

One thing that can never be underestimated is the latent heat build up in the nw caribbean....the tchp (tropical cyclone heat potenial) in the area from cuba to the cayman islands to the yucatan is even higher this year than it was in 2005. What that means is that the water is not only bathtub warm on the surface - it extends to some depth at that temperature. If dry air is the Raid for tropical systems, the water of the NW Caribbean is steroids for a developing system. Don't forget, this is the area that has bred late season beasts like Mitch and Wilma....not only incredibly strong october and november storms...these are the beasts that all other storms have to measure up against any time of year if they are going to make a play for infamy.

While there is no question there is dry air in the gulf now...it is not as clear cut as the image suggests even where i am in south florida...the atmosphere may be more stable the next few days, but the dewpoint is still hovering around 70 and the coolest low temp forecast here in fort lauderdale in the next week is 75 deg. The low to mid-80 degree surf temps aren't going anywhere until november either....

It would be nice of the environment was static. I wish they made RAID for tropical cyclones.

On a serious note, the Gulf of Mexico might be warmer in some spots, but TCHP is much less than NW Caribbean. Since the TCHP is much higher than 2005, I wonder if next season in 2011 will even be higher than in 2010? Something to think about. Also, 2011 name line up is the one used in 2005. I posted an article of how Texas can get hit by hurricanes in November. I always wonder if they too came from the Caribbean. Mind you that the last time Texas was hit by a hurricane in November was in 1839. No maps are known to exist. Hurricane records only go back to 1851.

I notice that late season storms in the Atlantic and in other basins have become monsterous and intense storms; Tip (WPAC), Mitch (ATL), Wilma (ATL), and Monica (SWP) formed late in the season. I wonder if anyone has ever studied why some late season storms have become very intense.

[Florida1118]

And Bonnie doesnt count?

My bad. Sorry. Bonnie was not that remarkable.

It was a joke. No apologies needed.

[Aric Dunn]

With the Global models showing a persistent westerly flow across the Atlantic and east coast coming for the next couple weeks. It is highly unlikely that anywhere in the US will be threatened. the Caribbean could see some action though.

[jconsor]

There are signs in the ensemble runs that the upper pattern will change in the Oct 12-15 timeframe, with more ridging over the SW Atlantic and eastern Caribbean and troughing returning to the central and eastern US. *If* a tropical system were to form in the W. Caribbean, this pattern change suggests at least south FL could be threatened.

However, I don't see much evidence of any tropical systems developing beyond 97L. The MJO is forecast to strengthen significantly and shift into phase 5, which is one of the most unfavorable positions for tropical development in the Caribbean/Gulf/SW Atlantic. Given the normal progression of the MJO, I suspect late Oct into early Nov will bring more favorable conditions for development and at least one tropical cyclone in the W. Carib, Gulf, or SW Atlantic.

[Ptarmigan]

Could it be location that is contributing factor to the late season cat 5's like mitch and wilma? By that I mean that energy is focused in the nw caribbean due to waves coming in from the east and fronts bringing disturbances in from the north? I look at the area around the Cayman Islands to Cuba to the Yucatan as a powder keg...but without a bullet, nothing can 'fire'.

Perhaps it is not until late season that the gun gets loaded with potential bullets in this region? All I can say is that when we have seen on more than one occasion in the past 12 years systems with pressure readings under 910 mb after mid-October, this is clearly not a fluke (Mitch went down to 905 mb and Wilma hit at least 882 or 884 mb).

That is very true. I have to wonder if this would also be the case in the other basins as well. As I mentioned, I noticed that some of the most intense tropical cyclones on record were in the late season, like Tip and Monica. I notice all those strong late season hurricanes like Great Hurricane of 1780, Hattie (1961), Mitch (1998), and Wilma (2005) are really devastating.
1780-Hit eastern Caribbean and kills 30,000 people. Deadliest Atlantic Hurricane ever. Also, there were a total of 4 hurricanes that time in October of 1780 that each claimed +1,000.
Hattie-Hit Belize and damaged Belize City so badly, that the capital was relocated to Belmopan.
Mitch-Flooding rains in Central America kill 20,000 people.
Wilma-Ravages the Caribbean, severely damages Cancun, and whacks Florida hard.

Three of the four formed in the Caribbean, while one, 1780 was likely a Cape Verde Storm. Something tells me that this October, right now, we could see a monster hurricane. Just as you say everything has to be right. There needs to be a fire to ignite gasoline to fire up. Hattie, Mitch, and Wilma formed in mid to late October and that is the the time to really watch. Sometimes I wonder if these late season monsters prior to 1851 have hit Texas.

[jinftl]

No doubt it has happened at some point over the centuries, but one thing i have noticed about late season systems - they seem to follow a fairly predictable path. If they form in the NW Caribbean there is really little chance for these systems to continue north into the gulf and then turn west or wnw. Take a look at the October storms that have hit south florida....King and Wilma, for example...their tracks are almost identical....north through the yucatan channel/yucatan and then northeast over florida. Even Mitch found his way over south florida as a tropical storm.

If systems are moving north out of the NW Caribbean, they are probably already being steered by a trough and turn to the northeast is almost inevitable. Whereas in August and September, there is more 'variety' in tracks, and as we have seen with storms like Ike and Rita, a wnw track without interruption is possible that time of year across the Gulf from Florida to Texas.

I would imagine that a threat to the western gulf would have to come out of the bay of campeche to be a threat this time in October/November.

Sometimes I wonder if these late season monsters prior to 1851 have hit Texas.

[Ptarmigan]

No doubt it has happened at some point over the centuries, but one thing i have noticed about late season systems - they seem to follow a fairly predictable path. If they form in the NW Caribbean there is really little chance for these systems to continue north into the gulf and then turn west or wnw. Take a look at the October storms that have hit south florida....King and Wilma, for example...their tracks are almost identical....north through the yucatan channel/yucatan and then northeast over florida. Even Mitch found his way over south florida as a tropical storm.

If systems are moving north out of the NW Caribbean, they are probably already being steered by a trough and turn to the northeast is almost inevitable. Whereas in August and September, there is more 'variety' in tracks, and as we have seen with storms like Ike and Rita, a wnw track without interruption is possible that time of year across the Gulf from Florida to Texas.

I would imagine that a threat to the western gulf would have to come out of the bay of campeche to be a threat this time in October/November.

Those cool fronts that gives us nice weather picks up storms from the Caribbean to Florida. I remember Mitch hitting Florida. It produced tornadoes and heavy rain despite moving fast. It was a real mess of thunderstorms.

There are no maps of where those November storms formed. The last time it happened was in 1839. The Bay of Campeche tends to allow storms to rapidly intensify due to the curve of the area as Dr. Masters has written. The probability of a November storm hitting Texas is small, about every 160 years. We have a better chance of getting snow in December or seeing single digit temperatures.