Gulf of Mexico Disturbance--PGI37L

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Models have Lower pressures in about a week near the Yuctan, just saying fixing to get active over the Western Gulf..

[Stormcenter]

Well at least for now it looks like nothing is in a hurry to get going. IMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[Nikki]

I do not post here much, but I was curious if anyone could tell me what this silly thing is going to do? I have a pool party planned for Saturday. Thank you all.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED AUG 25 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
DANIELLE...LOCATED ABOUT 710 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...AND ON RECENTLY-DEVELOPED TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN...
LOCATED ABOUT 430 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
TO THE EAST OF SOUTHERN TEXAS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD OR WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2.


$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Bailey1777]

local weather stations are saying this area is supposed to lift northward is that pretty concrete?

[Tireman4]

local weather stations are saying this area is supposed to lift northward is that pretty concrete?

\

Which station?

[vbhoutex]

A look at the visible for the GOM as well as the last ascat pass(posted earlier) show at least 3 different vortexs twirling out in the Central and Western GOM. If anything concentrated(TD or more) a whole lot of consolidation and a whole lot more concentrated convection is going to have to happen IMO. Not saying that we won't get beneficial rains out of this, but I am doubting a TC at this point.

[HURAKAN]

I agree vbhoutex but storms in this area can spin-up pretty fast. Humberto always comes to mind.

[wxman57]

local weather stations are saying this area is supposed to lift northward is that pretty concrete?

That's not likely given the ridging along the northern Gulf Coast. More likely a weak low/trof moving inland into the lower to mid TX coast Friday night.

[vbhoutex]

I agree vbhoutex but storms in this area can spin-up pretty fast. Humberto always comes to mind.

I know that all too well. Alicia also comes to mind. She didn't spin up as fast as Humberto, but that is another Hurricane I will never forget. If anything the GOM is almost notorious for doing fast spin ups.

[wxman57]

Current Gulf analysis. Weak surface trof out there. No evidence of lowering pressures. Just something to keep an eye on. Development isn't very likely:

[Stormcenter]

Isn't that a tune (development isn't very likely) we've heard a lot so far this hurricane season when it comes to GOM disturbances. I personally think it's unusual considering where we at in the season. I'm not so sure conditions will ever be ideal this season in teh GOM. IMO

Current Gulf analysis. Weak surface trof out there. No evidence of lowering pressures. Just something to keep an eye on. Development isn't very likely:

[ROCK]

SC what do you expect? every low to develop? Upper air patterns can change on a dime....this has weak model support so I dont expect it to do anything....

[thetruesms]

Latest ASCAT

Not closed; but not too bad either at 25.8N 94W


[img]http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc10/ATL/37L.PGI37L/ssmi/scat/wind_barbs/20100825.1221.windsat.WINDSAT_NRL_37GHz_IR.wind.37LPGI37L.3903_088pc_15kts-1010mb_261N_923W_sft20100825_1400.jpg[img]

Just wanted to point out that image is actually a WindSat pass, not ASCAT. Unfortunately, WindSat has . . . issues with rain contamination.

[Houstonia]

One things for sure - I'm taking my umbrella to the Island this weekend.

A look at the visible for the GOM as well as the last ascat pass(posted earlier) show at least 3 different vortexs twirling out in the Central and Western GOM. If anything concentrated(TD or more) a whole lot of consolidation and a whole lot more concentrated convection is going to have to happen IMO. Not saying that we won't get beneficial rains out of this, but I am doubting a TC at this point.

[Aric Dunn]

well one thing is for sure its going to take a long time to do anything unless some organized convection can develop.

[Stormcenter]

Let's not forget the last three poofs in the GOM.

SC what do you expect? every low to develop? Upper air patterns can change on a dime....this has weak model support so I dont expect it to do anything....

[Aric Dunn]

Im sure you all remember this... its was a weak mess of nothing in the morning barely any convection then....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ilz5t1WwMZY

pre humberto..

[lrak]

Wow AD that was a cool video!

thanks for the links.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Still think this has a shot to develop. 12Z GEM sure develops it with a flood along the TX Coast.