Caribbean development? (Is invest 92L)

[Vortex]

H+144 Nogaps Just SE of Andros island in the bahamas...



https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Wx_Warrior]

Gut: if it comes off western cuba, i see NGOM.

If BOC, then south texas/mexico.

[cycloneye]

I see 20% at 8 PM TWO.

[wxman57]

Given how far south remnants of Gaston are tracking, I see no reason to think this wave will track north of the Caribbean. Most likely a westerly track toward the Yucatan then into Mexico.

[Bailey1777]

nogaps looks whacked to me i dont see it taking a northerly course like that but i can see it shooting the gap.

[Ivanhater]

Given how far south remnants of Gaston are tracking, I see no reason to think this wave will track north of the Caribbean. Most likely a westerly track toward the Yucatan then into Mexico.

At the time this system is in the NW Caribbean, where is the ridge to continue to push it west, especially if we have a stronger system. GFS is showing ideal conditions in this region.

The GFS tries to build some weak ridging on top in the long range but nothing very strong.

[Bailey1777]

so wxwarrior if it shoots the gap what does your gut tellyou?

[Wx_Warrior]

That i don't know!

I think its way too early for: this is where it's going.

Those were just 2 right off the bat gut feelings. I get those when storms begin in the carib or gom.

EDIT: i haven't put tons of stock in anything the gfs has shown this season. But all mods are now latching on to something.

EURO is always telling.

[KWT]

Given how far south remnants of Gaston are tracking, I see no reason to think this wave will track north of the Caribbean. Most likely a westerly track toward the Yucatan then into Mexico.

I suspect that won't be too far off the mark, I suspect though a track not too dissimilar overall in terms of Alex...but in the end I see a bigger threat to Mexico/Yucatan then anywhere else, if it develops I'd go as high as 50-60% chance those are the places that get it, though Texas is probably at elevated risk as well, esp the further south you go.

Still too far out, lets see this one develop first!

[Macrocane]

Another Northeastern mexico , well it's still to early to tell, I think Central America, Mexico, Cuba and the Gulf states need to watch this. I wouldn't be surprised if more models are on board tomorrow.

[Ivanhater]

KWT, take a look at the 12z Euro 500mb chart. Your telling me a Hurricane won't see this weakness in the Gulf and continue west into Mexico?

If that same weakness were in the ATL, you would be all over it

[Wx_Warrior]

Iv...you asking KWT or wxman 57? LOL

"Given how far south remnants of Gaston are tracking, I see no reason to think this wave will track north of the Caribbean. Most likely a westerly track toward the Yucatan then into Mexico." - wxman57

[Wx_Warrior]

Ivan, please just come out and say you are PRO EURO

[KWT]

I'd imagine it'd pick up some latitude in that set-up, indeed that actual set-up looks to me alot like Alex when the system caught onto a weakness briefly but then got shunted back W/WSW as the upper high built back in again...the ECM would lead to something very similar. It'd very likely gain some latitude but from how deep it starts on the models it'd still be mainly a Mexico/maybe S.Texas threat....

A stronger system though may well feel the tug harder, esp as the ECM really only has a weak system in place.

[Ivanhater]

Both

GFS and Euro are showing the weakness with the ridge. Long way out, gonna be a long week!

[Ivanhater]

I'd imagine it'd pick up some latitude in that set-up, indeed that actual set-up looks to me alot like Alex when the system caught onto a weakness briefly but then got shunted back W/WSW as the upper high built back in again...the ECM would lead to something very similar. It'd very likely gain some latitude but from how deep it starts on the models it'd still be mainly a Mexico/maybe S.Texas threat....

A stronger system though may well feel the tug harder, esp as the ECM really only has a weak system in place.

Lol, where on the map I posted from the Euro would indicated the ridge building on top and shove it WSW? There is a clear weakness.

[KWT]

Look at the heights Ivanhater right to the north of the system...the upper weakness and the axis of the weakness is to the east of the system and you've got an upper ridge/high (its probably a proper upper high...NOT being driven by the upper troughing!) building right to the north of the system and when you have those two normally thats a pretty good set-up to induce a WSW motion.

Still that could easily be different tomorrow, if we get a system developing there is nearly a 100% certainty it threatens land somewhere.

[Ivanhater]

I'm just gonna give up but the same weakness in the Gulf is what the 2 systems in the Atl are running into. You place one of those in the NW Caribbean and you will get the same scenario

[KWT]

Not exactly though Ivanhater...the difference is one system is to the WEST of the weakness axis, therefore the flow, esp with an upper high in place will be E/ENE which pushes the system to the W/WSW as the ECM/GDS show...where as the other two are to the EAST of the upper weakness...and the flow is WNW/NW ahead of that upper trough, hence why once it gets far enough north it recurves as the models show...though that actual 12z ECM probably isn't a certain recurve till it gets close to 35-40N actually!

I'll do a map to show what I mean using the ECM heights soon if ya want?

[ColinDelia]

Assuming this develops it is really wild the way all the models picked it out - some quite early - with cyclogenesis being an historically difficult forecast. We weren't even sure what they were developing at first. Imagine ten more years from now.

of course, it might not develop.