Season Cancel!

[bexar]

^

so far, the long-range models don't seem to agree. It still pictures out a barren October.

And a little more advisories, the EPAC would overtake Atlantic in the ACE, something in the recent years that doesn't happen unless it's an El Nino year.

[dwsqos2]

Hopefully, next season is much more interesting. This is just depressing; the 12Z Euro set me over the edge. Oh well, it wasn't as poorly forecast as 2007.

How sad; how pathetic; how pointless; actually, every basin has been pathetic.

There probably won't be another storm; it is all collapsing into nothingness. I fear I can't continue.

[ConvergenceZone]

Hopefully, next season is much more interesting. This is just depressing; the 12Z Euro set me over the edge. Oh well, it wasn't as poorly forecast as 2007.

How sad; how pathetic; how pointless; actually, every basin has been pathetic.

There probably won't be another storm; it is all collapsing into nothingness. I fear I can't continue.

Yep, put a fork in it, the 2011 hurricane season is done.... (just not officially)

[hurricanetrack]

This won't help any: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/da ... carins.png

Looks like the MJO will not be enough to pull off the upset (sports and hurricanes, sure, they're related, ask MWatkins sometime).

[PTrackerLA]

A very strange season indeed. I'm quite stunned the gulf coast and especially Florida will go another year without a hurricane landfall (most likely). I don't know about the rest of you, but I'm ready to jump over to the winter weather boards!

[bexar]

This has got to be the lamest season in the last 10 years. 2006 and 2009 were excusable as they were El Nino years, but this year was just meh.

[Jevo]

This has got to be the lamest season in the last 10 years. 2006 and 2009 were excusable as they were El Nino years, but this year was just meh.

yeah lame right... I mean Irene only had at least 55 people confirmed dead across the Caribbean, 10 U.S. states and Canada in the aftermath and damage from Hurricane Irene may reach $10 billion.

[bexar]

^

I am referring to the season collectively, not just a single storm.

[FireRat]

I see several of you are suffering from "Tropical Depression".

[ConvergenceZone]

^

I am referring to the season collectively, not just a single storm.

Well, it is quite funny how the "wait until September" people have all but dissapeared.
We'll have to remind them about this next year........

[Ntxw]

At least we had several ok systems to track, though nothing signature of nature that says "hey remember that storm in '11?" What happened in the EPAC was somewhat of a surprise.

I still think the cold PDO has something to do with it beyond our relative quiet phase regarding the US since it kicked off in 08. Sure more la ninas will come but it also likes to amplify the weather pattern more over North America (as I've noticed throughout the years) which shields us. Lets hope that continues.

[Steve H.]

Season isn't over folks. Still a good 6 to 7 weeks to go. Sweltering here in Florida still. I expect some more tropical activity before the end in the Caribbean.

[Florida1118]

^

I am referring to the season collectively, not just a single storm.

Well, it is quite funny how the "wait until September" people have all but dissapeared.
We'll have to remind them about this next year........

I dont understand what you mean by this. You keep mentioning people who said "wait until September"...it IS the peak of the season, and if if its quite in Late July/Early August, they have a point in that you dont cancel right off the bat. And even then, September still produced 5NS, 3H, and 2 MH, which imo is a very respectable amount imo

[somethingfunny]

I want snow today and you better not say 'wait until January'

[wxman57]

I want snow today and you better not say 'wait until January'

Wait until 2013, or maybe Dec. 2012. Could be an El Nino next year.

[dwsqos2]

I am going on the record for a 2009 type season next year; ACE 50-70; no U.S. hurricane landfalls likely. Yes, I am cancelling 2012 in Oct. of 2011. Also, limited early season activity seems likely, just like this year.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[bexar]

I am going on the record for a 2009 type season next year; ACE 50-70; no U.S. hurricane landfalls likely. Yes, I am cancelling 2012 in Oct. of 2011. Also, limited early season activity seems likely, just like this year.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

If so, list 4 usually winds up in an El Nino year.

[Florida1118]

I am going on the record for a 2009 type season next year; ACE 50-70; no U.S. hurricane landfalls likely. Yes, I am cancelling 2012 in Oct. of 2011. Also, limited early season activity seems likely, just like this year.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

50-70 ACE is quite below average for the active era...If you get it right, you get all bragging rights

[ConvergenceZone]

Well, it is quite funny how the "wait until September" people have all but dissapeared.
We'll have to remind them about this next year........

I dont understand what you mean by this. You keep mentioning people who said "wait until September"...it IS the peak of the season, and if if its quite in Late July/Early August, they have a point in that you dont cancel right off the bat. And even then, September still produced 5NS, 3H, and 2 MH, which imo is a very respectable amount imo

Well, here's the point I'm trying to make, people shouldn't say that it will FOR SURE get busy once September rolls around, and I do see people saying that alot.
Case in point a comment I made in late August when we were having a lull that perhaps the season would end early, but a bunch of people responded of how ludicrious that was because the season would be at its peak in September and September, November, December would have their share of storms because of the favorable MJO etc..... This is my opporunity to point out there that while activity typically is busier in September, there have been plenty of season where the activitity did just the opposite and died down in September, with the exception of the random tropical depression or storm.

[psyclone]

Well, it is quite funny how the "wait until September" people have all but dissapeared.
We'll have to remind them about this next year........

I dont understand what you mean by this. You keep mentioning people who said "wait until September"...it IS the peak of the season, and if if its quite in Late July/Early August, they have a point in that you dont cancel right off the bat. And even then, September still produced 5NS, 3H, and 2 MH, which imo is a very respectable amount imo

Well, here's the point I'm trying to make, people shouldn't say that it will FOR SURE get busy once September rolls around, and I do see people saying that alot.
Case in point a comment I made in late August when we were having a lull that perhaps the season would end early, but a bunch of people responded of how ludicrious that was because the season would be at its peak in September and September, November, December would have their share of storms because of the favorable MJO etc..... This is my opporunity to point out there that while activity typically is busier in September, there have been plenty of season where the activitity did just the opposite and died down in September, with the exception of the random tropical depression or storm.[/quote]
nothing is sure in weather. come on. this dead horse has been beaten enough. those who expected alot of action (and i was one of them) were making a probability bet based on climo. it didn't pan out this time. so what. i would make the same bet again because it would be the logical option. that doesn't mean it will come to fruition everytime. there are no guarantees in weather and there's nothing wrong with making climo bets. most of the time (but not all) those predictions will pay off. overall the season's been boring relative to preseason predictions. but it's not over yet. even the drag that was 2009 generated a november cane.