Pouch 07L approaching Lesser Antilles - (Is invest 90L)

[northjaxpro]

It is improving. If the convection can continue to generate and persist over the next 24-36 hours, we will probably see our next invest.

[Hurricaneman]

I think if this take longer to develop, may this go south of the islands

[cycloneye]

I think if this take longer to develop, may this go south of the islands

You mean the Greater Antilles right?

[drezee]

Curvature at the surface is increasing...winds have shifted to NNE ahead of the wave...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41101

[Hurricaneman]

I think if this take longer to develop, may this go south of the islands

You mean the Greater Antilles right?

yes and I think it would have a better shot there than north of the greater antilles

[Florida1118]

Hmm...Who thinks we see an apperance in the TWO?

[Blown Away]

I think if this take longer to develop, may this go south of the islands

You mean the Greater Antilles right?

yes and I think it would have a better shot there than north of the greater antilles

Today it does appear a WNW track has begun, so it looks like a track through the NE Caribbean or just to the north of that area is likely. So much dry air around this wave, but the convection has increased, consolidated, and been persistent so IMO it warrants a "Code Yellow 10%" at 2pm

[floridasun78]

now we see their could send plane we could see invest soon

[Gustywind]

[NDG]

I doubt that we will see it get mentioned in today's TWO, maybe tomorrow morning if convection increases along with model support for development, IMO.

[stormreader]

Its a respectable impulse for this time of year. Awful lot of dry air around it (typical for this time of year), but the strength of the pulse itself may mean that this bears watching further down the road (usual place---W Carribean or Cuba-Bahamas).
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

[Blown Away]

Don would be a perfect name for a CV storm!

[SouthFloridawx]

There is some dry air to the east, but it's not too bad. Looks like the environment is improving. This is the mid-level wv pic.

[Ivanhater]

Looking good

[Florida1118]

Taking their time on the 2pm update...

[Florida1118]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM CINDY...LOCATED ABOUT 1095 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE
AZORES. ADVISORIES ARE ALSO BEING ISSUED ON TROPICAL STORM
BRET...LOCATED ABOUT 295 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS
NORTH CAROLINA.

1. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON CINDY ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON CINDY ARE
ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCMAT3.


$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

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[Blown Away]

Taking their time on the 2pm update...

Lots of things going on and when they delay it usually means something has changed and it did!

[Florida1118]

Taking their time on the 2pm update...

Lots of things going on and when they delay it usually means something has changed and it did!

Ya...you can tell their busy or changing something when they delay their usual update time of 1:40ish to 1:58

[cycloneye]

12z NOGAPS has a Tropical Storm north of Hispanola in 72 hours.