2012 WPAC season

[euro6208]

So this El-Nino has at least made in impact with this crazy WPac then right?

officially el nino isn't declared...


this season is normal for the wpac...seasons like this are very common..think of the 2005 atlantic hurricane season happening every year that's how active this basin is...but worser

[Typhoon Hunter]

Indeed, recent years have seen suppressed activity in Wpac, last above average year in terms of numbers was 2004. This year I feel could end up above average!

[dexterlabio]

if ever we end up having average number of TC's, I think we're gonna have above average number in terms of ACE. Most TC's that have formed this year were of "good quality", and not just some insignificant TC's that come and go. They don't simply add to the number of storms, they also rake up a lot of ACE.

[euro6208]

what an active period coming up!

euro developing 3 tropical cyclones...one in the south china sea, the second west of guam and the third (currently 94W) northeast of guam...

[dexterlabio]

I couldn't help but compare this year to the 2004 season. But we have yet to know if this activity will proceed until the end of December. The last quarter of that year spawned a lot of major typhoons and the last major "super typhoon" of that year occurred in December. Another comparison (at least for me) is the storm track. A lot of TC's this year tracked more poleward in response to the strong shortwave troughs running across Northern Asia, and the break in the ridge is located near 125E to 130E longitude. Typically, these are characteristics of an El Nino. Philippines had been lucky then in terms of landfall, but not until the Nov-Dec period.

The thing is, I'm not sure if these can all be attributed to El Nino conditions when it is not declared yet.

[euro6208]

euro consistently showing triplets developing...maliksi, gaemi, and prapiroon is eminent...

[dexterlabio]

TC activity is supported throughout October. MJO is strong and is expected to sit on the Western Pacific for some time.

National Centers for Environmental Prediction - Bias-Corrected Ensemble Global Forecast System


European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts - Seasonal Prediction Ensemble Forecast System

[euro6208]

update as we enter october...

[euro6208]

wow! jelawat produced 44.8825...amazing...

season total is now at 223.222

Normal year to date is 197

Normal yearly ace is 302...based on 1981-2010 climatology



ACE is about half of what the entire Atlantic has produced this year, and well over half of the East Pacific...

[dexterlabio]

^hmm i can smell we can get past 302 ACE before December. If we may not end up with above average number of TC's this year, an above-average ACE is within reach. There is moisture everywhere and the MJO is currently sitting AND strengthening in WPAC, further supporting TC activity.

[euro6208]

very active period next 2 weeks...

[euro6208]

000
WWPQ80 PGUM 041219
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1019 PM CHST THU OCT 4 2012

PMZ161-171-172-050100-
KOROR PALAU-YAP-CHUUK-
1019 PM CHST THU OCT 4 2012

...MONSOON PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF MICRONESIA...

THIS IS AN UPDATE TO THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR MICRONESIA. A STRONG AND ACTIVE MONSOON
PATTERN CONTINUES THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF MICRONESIA FROM THE
REPUBLIC OF PALAU TO CHUUK STATE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE OCCURRING OVER YAP STATE AND PORTIONS OF
THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU AND CHUUK STATE. THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY NORTH AND WEST OF KOROR AND EXTENDS ACROSS YAP STATE TO
THE WESTERN ISLANDS OF CHUUK STATE INCLUDING PULUWAT. GRADUAL
CLEARING HAS OCCURRED OVER EASTERN CHUUK STATE AND CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THERE THROUGH FRIDAY.

OPEN-OCEAN SEAS ACROSS CHUUK STATE OF 8 TO 9 FEET WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SEAS OF 9 TO 11 FEET ACROSS THE
REPUBLIC OF PALAU AND YAP STATE TONIGHT WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 6 AND 8
FEET BY SATURDAY...THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO BETWEEN 8 AND 10 FEET
STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER MONSOON SURGE.
HAZARDOUS SURF OF 8 TO 10 FEET WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY ON
WESTERN SHORES OF CHUUK...DIMINISHING TO BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS
FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE SURF TONIGHT OF 10 TO 12 FEET ON YAP AND KOROR
WILL DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND.

KEEP ALERT FOR ANY LATER STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS OR THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. CHECK WITH YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE BEFORE ATTEMPTING INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL. REFER TO THE LATEST
COASTAL WATERS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

$$

KLEESCHULTE



000
WWMY80 PGUM 041308
SPSMY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1108 PM CHST THU OCT 4 2012

GUZ001>005-050100-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-NORTHERN MARIANAS-
1108 PM CHST THU OCT 4 2012

...MONSOON WEATHER MOVING TO THE MARIANAS...

AT 1000 PM THIS EVENING...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE GUAM
RADAR SHOW THAT THE STRONG MONSOON WEATHER THAT HAS BEEN SITUATED
OVER SOUTHERN MICRONESIA DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS FINALLY
STARTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND WILL SOON BE AFFECTING THE MARIANA
ISLANDS. SURFACE DATA SUGGESTS THAT A BROAD WEAK CIRCULATION HAS
DEVELOPED 100 TO 200 MILES TO THE NORTHWEST OF GUAM. THIS
CIRCULATION WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...AND AS IT
DOES...IT WILL DRAW MODERATE TO STRONG MONSOON FLOW OVER THE
ISLANDS...STARTING WITH GUAM AND MOVING INTO ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN DURING THE DAY.
TODAY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH...INCREASING TO 20 TO 30
MPH WITH STRONGER GUSTS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS BY FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY. OPEN OCEAN SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW WITH INCREASED SEAS
OF 9 TO 11 FEET BY EVENING MAKING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY. A
HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT.

RESIDENTS OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND LISTEN FOR
LATER STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND
FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

$$

EDSON/GUARD



within this large disturbance are Invest 97, 98, and 99W...it will be interesting to watch which one survives and becomes the dominant center...

one thing is for sure, alot of rain headed our way!

[euro6208]

UPDATE: Guam monitors monsoon weather, developing disturbance


http://www.guampdn.com/article/20121004/NEWS01/121004002/UPDATE-Guam-monitors-monsoon-weather-developing-disturbance?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|Frontpage


Military declares Condition 3

http://www.guampdn.com/article/20121004/NEWS01/210040305/Military-declares-Condition-3?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|Frontpage

[euro6208]

found a very interesting image...

literally hot water!

[Chickenzilla]

I'm quite sure it's an error.

[euro6208]

i don't think it's an error...here is the anomaly map...over 5 C!

[euro6208]

after prapiroon, we might have to wait a little longer for our next tropical cyclone but anything can happen...

[dexterlabio]

while the MJO pulse is now within that "death ring" and away from WPAC...GFS,CMC and NOGAPS are still showing development of a significant tropical cyclone NEXT week. Very long-range talking right here and there is nothing to talk about, really...but this scenario is getting model support for the past few days, and I guess we can count in the Euro but it is still showing a weaker system unlike the GFS and others.


PS. I want to post the images but it seems I can't do it now with this phone. Err. You can just look at the latest GFS, Canadian, NOGAPS and Euro models.

[euro6208]

euro has a weak tropical cyclone developing in the south china sea...but very long range...

[dexterlabio]

Euro still out of the bandwagon on 91W...showing a mere tropical wave... but the GFS,NOGAPS and CMC are keeping a significant system on the go by next week. I guess it would be a GFS vs. Euro again this time...though I must say the latter had really good record forecasting the track and intensity of our past tropical cyclones. The Euro solution is possible too, given the shear along its projected track is still pretty high.