2015 Global model runs discussion

[TheStormExpert]

GFS & Euro Model Round-up:

00z GFS Hr.204


06z GFS Hr.198


12z GFS Hr.192


............

00z Euro Hr.192


00z Euro Hr.216


00z Euro Hr.240


All in all the GFS is lost and inconsistent while the Euro blows this up to strong TS/minimal Hurricane strength heading NNE/NE towards the OBX of NC.

[TheStormExpert]

Very interesting run by the Euro last night as mentioned above, now wait and see on consistency.
BTW, it shows for development off of FL east coast by next Sunday then quickly gain strength.

If this holds, it would be almost identical to Arthur's genesis last year, which was very well forecast by the Euro quite a ways out.

That was the storm that came to my mind when I saw the Euro earlier this morning.

[Alyono]

12Z EC has it much weaker, but it also has a couple of other interesting systems ahead of it

[SFLcane]

Look off the East U.S. Coast for the next storm, not in the tropics.

You mean ( all season).

[Hammy]

12Z EC has it much weaker, but it also has a couple of other interesting systems ahead of it

Euro isn't one to show something that doesn't develop, so it wouldn't surprise me if a stronger storm starts showing up again a few days from now.

Look off the East U.S. Coast for the next storm, not in the tropics.

You mean ( all season).

Don't forget the Azores later in the season

[TheStormExpert]

12Z EC has it much weaker, but it also has a couple of other interesting systems ahead of it

Where exactly do these other "Interesting Systems" form?

[TheStormExpert]

12Z EC has it much weaker, but it also has a couple of other interesting systems ahead of it

Euro isn't one to show something that doesn't develop, so it wouldn't surprise me if a stronger storm starts showing up again a few days from now.

Look off the East U.S. Coast for the next storm, not in the tropics.

You mean ( all season).

Don't forget the Azores later in the season

First off, I thought it would show it for several runs in a row before dropping it? It usually waits till medium range and we're still in long range.

And secondly, why do systems always form near and around the Azores so late in the season? I find that interesting!

[Hammy]

First off, I thought it would show it for several runs in a row before dropping it? It usually waits till medium range and we're still in long range.

It's usually around the seven day point where it drops the systems, for some reason the model seems to get the right answer but with the wrong method (sort of like those sort of math equations we always got marked wrong in high school)

[gatorcane]

The global models looking pretty unanimous in gradually dropping the shear across much of the MDR over the next 7-10 days and in fact, are showing a pretty sharp drop in shear in the far eastern Atlantic. There still looks to be some pretty good shear across the Caribbean but if the ECMWF is right, it will be confined to the SW Caribbean (strongest shear) instead of the entire Caribbean extending east into the MDR past the Leewards as we have seen all season so far.

Graphics from the 12Z GFS and ECMWF runs below where you can see these models showing the most favorable upper-level wind pattern that we have seen all season so far across the MDR. This could mean waves traversing the MDR between the Leewards and Africa may have a bit more of a chance as we head into August (as you would expect).

12Z ECMWF 168 hours (see bottom left image for shear graphic):


12Z GFS 180 hours (see bottom left image for shear graphic):

[Hammy]

Latest Euro showing two fully-developed tropical systems now, one in the Gulf and one off of the Carolinas. Reminding me a bit of 2005's Nate/Ophelia setup.

[Stormcenter]

What time frame?

Latest Euro showing two fully-developed tropical systems now, one in the Gulf and one off of the Carolinas. Reminding me a bit of 2005's Nate/Ophelia setup.

[wxman57]

What time frame?

Latest Euro showing two fully-developed tropical systems now, one in the Gulf and one off of the Carolinas. Reminding me a bit of 2005's Nate/Ophelia setup.

This Sunday. The lows develop along a cold front. Something developing off the East Coast is more likely than in the Gulf. Despite the dropping shear in the MDR, the Tropical Atlantic is still a hostile place with lots of dry, sinking air and a generally stable environment.

[stormlover2013]

9-10 days out....still a ways out but something to watch

[gatorcane]

00Z Euro showing the two systems:

[Hammy]

12z Euro is weaker (again), is there a reason for the back and fourth of stronger-weaker every other run?

[TheStormExpert]

12z Euro is weaker (again), is there a reason for the back and fourth of stronger-weaker every other run?

Yes it's very strange?

Yesterday's 00z Run: Strong TS off Southeast U.S.
Yesterday's 12z Run: Nothing more than a very weak low.
Today's 00z Run: 2 Tropical Storms. One in NE GoM, the other off the U.S. East Coast aways.
Today's 12z Run: 2 weak lows off Southeast U.S.

Bet you that tonight's 00z Euro run will have a well developed system again.

[gatorcane]

Well with the GFS and CMC models not showing anything strong each run (and the CMC is usually over-bullish), you have to be a little skeptical about the Euro storms it was showing in previous runs. Odd since the Euro is usually very consistent and on the conservative side with any development.

Looks like a frontal boundary will push south and stall along a Central Florida latitude somewhere stretching from the EGOM out into the Bahamas/Atlantic. I think the Atlantic side would be more likely for any development given the consensus of the other global models of where the lowest pressures may form.

[TheStormExpert]

Well with the GFS and CMC models not showing anything strong each run (and the CMC is usually over-bullish), you have to be a little skeptical about the Euro storms it was showing in previous runs. Odd since the Euro is usually very consistent and on the conservative side with any development.

Looks like a frontal boundary will push south and stall along a Central Florida latitude somewhere stretching from the EGOM out into the Bahamas/Atlantic. I think the Atlantic side would be more likely for any development given the consensus of the other global models of where the lowest pressures may form.

A stalled out front over Central Florida? Seems kind of early for that? Maybe the Bermuda High won't be as strong as it was the past couple of months come peak season?

[stormlover2013]

Not odd models just having a hard time right now, florida should get some good rains out of this but don't see anything dangerous here but u never know

[Hammy]

Well with the GFS and CMC models not showing anything strong each run (and the CMC is usually over-bullish), you have to be a little skeptical about the Euro storms it was showing in previous runs. Odd since the Euro is usually very consistent and on the conservative side with any development.

As far as the other models go, the CMC didn't do too well finding Claudette beforehand, and the GFS has done a very poor job this season of developing the storms that did form. The Euro isn't one to show something and nothing develop though, so I think something at least on the weaker side might come out of this.