Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[ninel conde]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 6m6 minutes ago Pennsylvania, USA

Aug-Oct CFSV2 implications.High impact Hurricane season with atlantic warmth/la nina. Arctic coldest in many years

added link

[TheStormExpert]

I'd take anything Joe B. says concerning the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season with a grain of salt.

[TheStormExpert]

I think this is the season the non-major streak is broken.

May I ask what changed your thinking? Just the other day you were saying the East Coast trough would be in full force.

[CFLHurricane]

I also have to concur this is the year the non-major streak will be broken. The Atlantic 2016 is basically 2015 but with La Niña.

Thisbmay just be an amateur prognostication, but I have to agree with Joe Bastardi's point that the three ingredients of warm Atlantic, cold Arctic, and La Niña will equal a memorable hurricane season

[Kingarabian]

It's basically the Euro vs the CFS.

[SFLcane]

I think this is the season the non-major streak is broken.

Wait...Just few days ago your were claiming sweeping trof in place recuvering everything in site now this.

[Ntxw]

I also have to concur this is the year the non-major streak will be broken. The Atlantic 2016 is basically 2015 but with La Niña.

Thisbmay just be an amateur prognostication, but I have to agree with Joe Bastardi's point that the three ingredients of warm Atlantic, cold Arctic, and La Niña will equal a memorable hurricane season

I'm not sure what his reasoning came from with cold arctic. I'm not sure there is a correlation there. 2013 was the coldest year since 2006 in the Arctic pretty much and both were dud seasons. If the +AMO and La Nina do appear then agreed a more active season may happen.

[ninel conde]

I think this is the season the non-major streak is broken.

May I ask what changed your thinking? Just the other day you were saying the East Coast trough would be in full force.

Sure, while i dont think we will have the numbers of 1995 i think enough major canes will develop that 1 will hit the US coast. 1995 had a massive trof but opal formed in the right place.

[WeatherEmperor]

The thing about this CFS forecast is that it is not much different from the Euro forecast. Yes there wi be La Nina... but that is for waters right at the Equator in the Epac. Has anybody looked at the waters above the equator? While the CFS is less warm compared to the Euro, it still shows above average water temps above the equator right near the west coast of Mexico. This is a negative factor for the Atlantic. In addition to that, the rainfall precipitation forecast off the west coast of Mexico is also higher than average rainfall...which is another negative for the Atlantic. Does the CFS have a sea level pressure forecast like the Euro does? I think we all saw the higher than normal sea level pressures the Euro was forecasting. The question is will the positive factors for Atlantic development be stronger than the negative factors because there will be both positive and negative factors this year.

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 6m6 minutes ago Pennsylvania, USA

Aug-Oct CFSV2 implications.High impact Hurricane season with atlantic warmth/la nina. Arctic coldest in many years

added link

[NDG]

The thing about this CFS forecast is that it is not much different from the Euro forecast. Yes there wi be La Nina... but that is for waters right at the Equator in the Epac. Has anybody looked at the waters above the equator? While the CFS is less warm compared to the Euro, it still shows above average water temps above the equator right near the west coast of Mexico. This is a negative factor for the Atlantic. In addition to that, the rainfall precipitation forecast off the west coast of Mexico is also higher than average rainfall...which is another negative for the Atlantic. Does the CFS have a sea level pressure forecast like the Euro does? I think we all saw the higher than normal sea level pressures the Euro was forecasting. The question is will the positive factors for Atlantic development be stronger than the negative factors because there will be both positive and negative factors this year.

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 6m6 minutes ago Pennsylvania, USA

Aug-Oct CFSV2 implications.High impact Hurricane season with atlantic warmth/la nina. Arctic coldest in many years

added link

There are differences between the CFSv2 and the ECMWF in their forecast.
The CFSv2 shows a warmer tropical Atlantic, while the Euro does not.
The Euro shows high MSLPs for the Tropical Atlantic Basin while the CFSv2 does not.
The CFSv2 shows a colder Nino 1+2 & Nino 3 during the heart of the hurricane season while the Euro does not.

[TheAustinMan]

It appears that instability in the Tropical Atlantic has surged quite rapidly to near normal levels after being well below normal for much of the year. It's an interesting spike, but it would be wise to wait a few more days to see if this surge in instability holds.

[WeatherEmperor]

@ndg

In regards to sst anomalies in the Epac, they really arent that different. Even the Cfs shows a small patch of slightly warmer than normal sst off the west coast of Mexico. The difference if you want is that Cfs is less warm compared to Euro. The Cfs also show very small patches of slightly warmer than normal sst above the equator in the Epac. Its not super warm but still just a tad bit above normal.

Finally, even the great Dr. Klotzvach of CSU says that the Euro has shown better forecasting sst forecasting skill in Nino regions compared to other models. Check the April forecast they just released.

Who really knows which will be right but the Euro while its not perfect has been the most accurate

[ninel conde]

LC somewhat bullish on the upcoming season:

"I note with extreme interest the giant ITCZ wave over central Africa. The tropics have been very active of late in this vicinity, with some gains in latitude. Although a very gradual process, the gradual relocation of the westerlies will enable impulses to organize upon hitting the Atlantic Ocean below Cape Verde. Hence the outlook for a more active hurricane season in the major islands and coastal North America is made with confidence.

My tropical cyclone projection may exceed that of Colorado State University a bit, but I do not see some kind of wild 1995 or 2005 display. "Somewhat above normal", with better "Cape Verde" output, which is all that needs to be said."

[WPBWeather]

LC somewhat bullish on the upcoming season:

"I note with extreme interest the giant ITCZ wave over central Africa. The tropics have been very active of late in this vicinity, with some gains in latitude. Although a very gradual process, the gradual relocation of the westerlies will enable impulses to organize upon hitting the Atlantic Ocean below Cape Verde. Hence the outlook for a more active hurricane season in the major islands and coastal North America is made with confidence.

My tropical cyclone projection may exceed that of Colorado State University a bit, but I do not see some kind of wild 1995 or 2005 display. "Somewhat above normal", with better "Cape Verde" output, which is all that needs to be said."

Larry Cosgrove has certainly been a very reasonable source of information for many years. His 2016 looks very reasonable too.

[NDG]

LC somewhat bullish on the upcoming season:

"I note with extreme interest the giant ITCZ wave over central Africa. The tropics have been very active of late in this vicinity, with some gains in latitude. Although a very gradual process, the gradual relocation of the westerlies will enable impulses to organize upon hitting the Atlantic Ocean below Cape Verde. Hence the outlook for a more active hurricane season in the major islands and coastal North America is made with confidence.

My tropical cyclone projection may exceed that of Colorado State University a bit, but I do not see some kind of wild 1995 or 2005 display. "Somewhat above normal", with better "Cape Verde" output, which is all that needs to be said."

Larry Cosgrove has certainly been a very reasonable source of information for many years. His 2016 looks very reasonable too.

LC was too bullish last year by this time last year on his 2015 hurricane forecast and he was probably the only Pro that I remember that was forecasting the El Nino not to develop during the heart of the hurricane season, he even thought that a weak La Nina was going to be forming by Fall '15.
Not to say that his forecast for this year might be correct, which I agree with

[NDG]

All I know that compared to last year SSTs are warmer than last year, not to say that they could be cooling down over the next few months as the Azores High strengthens.

[Hurricaneman]

Vertical instability in the MDR seems to be above normal right now but the next few days with the SAL shot may go down the next few days

[SFLcane]

Yikes!

[Hurricaneman]

Yikes!

The NOAA site says that Tropical Tidbits SSTAs are erroneous

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean ... index.html

[SFLcane]

Oh wow...levi has to fix that. Much better look there. thx