Possible development in Western Caribbean - (Is INVEST 93L)

[caneman]

I see we still have the euro lovers.here. I've seen many different solutions provided by them already for this system. They've been windshield wipering the whole time. The saying "even a blind squirrel gets a nut once in awhile" comes to mind. I'm less than thrilled with all models thus far. I'll lean toward listening to NHC which always does a bang up job by accounting for any single models weaknesses, biases and inaccuracies and then blending.

[Tireman4]

From HGX AFD this morning....


000
FXUS64 KHGX 161132
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
632 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR with a possible hour or two (after sunrise) of MVFR ceilings.
As high pressure asserts its influence across the region an
analog approach of VFR and southerly winds seems the way to go. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Debris clouds are spreading across Southeast Texas early this morning
with temperatures in the mid to upper 70s inland and around 80 at
the coast. Slightly above normal temperatures (both highs and lows)
will persist as we close out the week and will continue on through
the upcoming weekend as the area remains on the eastern fringes of
a mid/upper level high. Late morning through afternoon heat index
values for at least the next several days will be topping out
generally in a 102 to 106 range, and all heat safety precautions
should continue to be taken. NHC`s most recent Tropical Weather
Outlook continues to have a 50% chance of tropical cyclone formation
in/around the Yucatan Peninsula early next week. Rising Gulf of
Mexico moisture levels associated with this system will gradually
work its way westward across the Gulf as the week progresses but
will be fighting our area`s dry and subsident mid/upper level
ridge, so for now we`ll be carrying rain chances of 10% to 20% for
much of the week. Continue to monitor the latest NHC forecasts on
the potential Gulf system. 42

&&

MARINE...
Generally light onshore winds over average 2 to 3 foot seas will
continue through the weekend...brief periods of caution wind
magnitudes during the overnight hours. An approaching and stalling
inland frontal boundary Monday will back winds more easterly early
next week. Light to moderate east to northeast winds will persist
through mid-week. Much uncertainty concerning the tropics late next
week so have just gradually strengthened southeasterlies and picked
up average seas into the 3 to 5 foot range from Thursday into
Saturday. 31

&&

CLIMATE...
Yesterday`s 95 degree high temperature at IAH was their first 95 of
the year. Last year`s first 95 also occurred on June 15th. On average
(according to Houston area records dating back to 1889), June 13th
is the first date that the area normally reaches the 95 degree mark.
In the past, the earliest this value has been reached was on March
30th (1946) and the latest was on August 8th (1899). 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 95 76 95 76 95 / 10 10 0 0 10
Houston (IAH) 95 78 95 78 95 / 10 10 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 88 82 88 81 88 / 10 10 0 0 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...42
Aviation/Marine...31

[ronjon]

Convection is increasing in the western Caribbean...should be tagged as an INVEST soon. Then we can get some dynamic models run along with the globals. I still haven't changed my reasoning on the energy split but will have no problem admitting i was wrong. What bothers me is the GFS still hasn't jumped on board with any development.

[BobHarlem]

Convection is increasing in the western Caribbean...should be tagged as an INVEST soon. Then we can get some dynamic models run along with the globals. I still haven't changed my reasoning on the energy split but will have no problem admitting i was wrong. What bothers me is the GFS still hasn't jumped on board with any development.

Why not both? (Epac and atlantic)

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro Parallel, hurricane into Brownsville.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

ECMWF and GFS still widely varying on solutions and not buying either of their outputs until a LLC can be established. Just a huge mess in the WCARB right now:



I do expect this to be tagged as 93L later tonight.

[Blow_Hard]

ECMWF and GFS still widely varying on solutions and not buying either of their outputs until a LLC can be established. Just a huge mess in the WCARB right now:

https://i.imgur.com/r8AdX5Z.jpg

I do expect this to be tagged as 93L later tonight.

Tallahassee NWS states in their 9:40am AFD that the GFS has come around to the Euro's solution and takes whatever this becomes into N. Mexico.

[tarheelprogrammer]

I personally believe models are going to be wrong with this system. I believe it will be stronger than shown. It may end up a healthy looking Cat 1. LA to Mexico landfall after getting trapped under building ridge. Just an opinion nothing more.

[tailgater]

00z Euro Parallel, hurricane into Brownsville.

Where does a closed low first form and when does it start organizing, just trying to see who, if anyone is affected will it be a large storm if that particular run should verify.
Large sloppy or small tight system.
Thanks in advance.

[wxman57]

I'm still not seeing any significant threat to the NE Gulf. Trend is for a stronger ridge across the US Gulf Coast, keeping the track way south in the SW Gulf. May peak at 40 kts Mon/Tue then weaken as it nears Mexico. Rain chances in Texas are diminishing, too.

[PTrackerLA]

00z Euro Parallel, hurricane into Brownsville.

Where does a closed low first form and when does it start organizing, just trying to see who, if anyone is affected will it be a large storm if that particular run should verify.
Large sloppy or small tight system.
Thanks in advance.

Low travels NNW out of the southern BOC and into Brownsville as a 990mb storm on 6/24. Heaviest rains are confined from Houston southwards to northern Mexico.

[gatorcane]

12Z Parallel MU shifts east some ands send this into NE Gulf, just 84 hours below:

[gatorcane]

GFS non-parallel showing a much more defined vort over NE Gulf now compared to 06Z run, seems to have trended some towards the parallel GFS:

[Ivanhater]

Hmm..Looking like the northern vort from the system may develop and threat the northern gulfcoast

[tropicwatch]

In the last couple of frames it looks like a broad rotation starting northeast of Honduras. Or, it could just be me.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=17&lon=-85&type=Animation&info=vis&numframes=10&zoom=4

[Steve]

Interesting Gator. Some of the NOAA base sites (Tally?) were just saying the GFS has shifted in line with the European. That's the parallel but doesn't look like it at all. It's got to be a piece of split or ejected energy coming up from the pull of the front in which case, there well could be 2 impacts from "this" - 1 being a hit around or just east of Panama City the CMC has been saying for days in a row and then maybe another surface low just moving off toward the N Mex Gulf Coast.

New GFS operational is much weaker bringing a 1007 low toward Bay County at 90 hours from run time (roughly midnight Monday). Canadian out to 54 hours has a surface low NE of the NE Tip of the Yucatan as it has shown all along.

[gatorcane]

The GFS/parallel GFS/CMC agree pretty much where the center of this low will come ashore. Looks like near where Hermine made landfall last year (NE GOM). Of course all of the weather will be on the east side due to shear so peninsula Florida would get a lot of rain if that track verified.

Will the ECMWF finally cave or still show the Yucatan/BOC/Mexico solution?

[chaser1]

Just a thought but..... how about TWO tropical systems to eventually form out of this whole Caribbean wave/ITCZ Gyre?

First, one smaller and tighter vorticity center that achieves strong T.S. strength and progresses north from the NW Caribbean to potentially impact far W. Florida Panhandle to Louisiana area, with other larger predominant low moving West and into the BOC where it reaches modest T.S. intensity prior to NE Mexico landfall?

[Steve]

NAM goes the other way with a 1004 concentric isobar low just along the Northern Coast of the Yucatan. 12k res has it at 1001.

Edit: CMC has two features. It must not be handling the energy that well. It looks like its old self but it is now actively showing the one feature up into NE FL and the other one moving into the BoC. Probably confused.

[Steve]

Just a thought but..... how about TWO tropical systems to eventually form out of this whole Caribbean wave/ITCZ Gyre?

First, one smaller and tighter vorticity center that achieves strong T.S. strength and progresses north from the NW Caribbean to potentially impact far W. Florida Panhandle to Louisiana area, with other larger predominant low moving West and into the BOC where it reaches modest T.S. intensity prior to NE Mexico landfall?

Yeah, possible. I was guessing at that on Wednesday night as possibly the reason the models were so divergent. At the same time, monsoonal gyres can launch several developments. There was one around the Caribbean a few (several?) years back that launched like 3 or 4 different systems.

Here's a look at the parallel ECMWF @ 96 hours from Ryan Maue's twitter. The resolution on that is pretty badass and shows that the EC still thinks this will be a very large circulation.

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/875 ... gr%5Etweet