2018 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

18z GFS has the second system tracking to Oaxaca,Mexico as a hurricane.

[cycloneye]

40%-90%

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Jun 3 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Widespread but disorganized showers and thunderstorms are associated
with a trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of
the southern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for development of this system, and a
tropical depression is expected to form in the next few days while
it moves slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Landsea

[galaxy401]

Surprised it's not an Invest yet.

[cycloneye]

Surprised it's not an Invest yet.

I guess they have not pinpointed a low pressure to begin the best track.

[Yellow Evan]

18z FV3

[cycloneye]

GFS with a new run is stronger.At 00z has a Cat 4.

[Kingarabian]

922mb on the high resolution GFS. Hopefully there are no troughs to pick it up as the GFS keeps it a cat 4 close to Baja California.

[cycloneye]

922mb on the high resolution GFS. Hopefully there are no troughs to pick it up as the GFS keeps it a cat 4 close to Baja California.

Moves over Socorro Island.

[hurricanes1234]

Update out very early ... increased to 60%/90%.

1. A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico continues to produce a large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next two to three days while it moves slowly west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

922mb on the high resolution GFS. Hopefully there are no troughs to pick it up as the GFS keeps it a cat 4 close to Baja California.

SST's aren't anywhere near warm enough to support a hurricane up there anyhow quite yet.

[cycloneye]

06z GFS has the first system up to cat 4 and as it weakens,it moves to Baja California while the second system makes landfall near Acapulco as a Hurricane.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Jun 4 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A trough of low pressure located about 500 hundred miles south of
the southern coast of Mexico continues to produce a large area of
disorganized cloudiness and showers. Environmental conditions are
conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression
is likely to form within the next two to three days while it moves
slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

INVEST 91E is up

[gatorcane]

00Z ECMWF looking pretty strong on the system behind 91E. Also has another one behind that system. Busy EPAC for the next couple of weeks it looks like.

[cycloneye]

Yes,92E is in the bullpen ready to go up in the next few days as there is consensus on all the models to have development.There are differences on intensity and on the track but that is expected being mid range.

[TheStormExpert]

I still don’t completely understand how the East Pacific like clockwork can just turn on overnight almost each and every season come late May-early June. Meanwhile the Atlantic just slowly and steadily picks things up as you progress through the summer.

[cycloneye]

Reply by Eric Blake to Michael Ventrice.

@EricBlake12
It’s funny how the main cckw isn’t even leading the activity- EPac will get a TC first, with maybe a second one a direct result

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1003645233123479553

[Yellow Evan]

I still don’t completely understand how the East Pacific like clockwork can just turn on overnight almost each and every season come late May-early June. Meanwhile the Atlantic just slowly and steadily picks things up as you progress through the summer.

No SAL, generally warmer waters in the central pacific equatorial region than off the coast of South America, and a monsoon trough that more often lingers in the EPAC than the ATL, and warmer waters off the coast of Mexico than Africa.

[cycloneye]

Two majors in June. 12z GFS bottoms second system to 928 mbs. Does anyone has stats about how many times two majors formed in June?

[Yellow Evan]

Two majors in June. 12z GFS bottoms second system to 928 mbs. Does anyone has stats about how many times two majors formed in June?

https://i.imgur.com/8SZMepj.png

2010 oddly enough is the only instance IIRC. Probably the strangest season in EPAC history.