Trough of Low Pressure in Bay of Campeche / (Is INVEST 96L)

[psyclone]

Looks like a fall freshwater fury system in the great lakes...perhaps a subtropical designation? I'm thinking the south and east shifts will continue. Big bend/nature coast special is pinging in my gut at this juncture.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1184501809622241280

[chaser1]

I also think that global models are quickly picking up on the quickly changing dynamics associated with the demise of T.D. 17 (over the EPAC south of Mexico). I think the result of T.D. 17's wind field essentially opening up to a trough of low pressure is now contributing to the overall low level convergence and pressure gradient in the BOC rather then competing against it. I'd expect to see the EURO come on a little stronger on it's 12Z run today (if not distinctly more in it's 0Z run tonight). Even without significant convective or organizational change today, there's no way this disturbance doesn't get tagged an invest by tomorrow morning.

[Aric Dunn]

If this BOC system develops faster and starts moving ne sooner. Then it might find a decent low shear pocket.

hopefully recon takes flight. Could quite possibly be a circ developing as we speak .
Some evidence of this. And thus would have a more eastern track.

[LarryWx]

12Z GEFS is WAY more active than any recent GEFS run and it is also SE of prior runs as well as faster. A much bigger deal implied for much of the deep SE US into FL. Consistent with this: mean inland rainfall much heavier than recent runs over most of FL and also up the SE coast. Check it out on Tidbits when it comes out.

[cycloneye]

If this BOC system develops faster and starts moving ne sooner. Then it might find a decent low shear pocket.

From i hopefully recon takes flight. Could quite possibly be a circ.
Sone evidence of this. And thus would have a more eastern track.

I dont know if you saw my post earlier about recon but they will not fly today.

THE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION TASKED IN TCPOD 19-140
WAS CANCELED BY NHC AT 16/1400Z.

[Aric Dunn]

If this BOC system develops faster and starts moving ne sooner. Then it might find a decent low shear pocket.

From i hopefully recon takes flight. Could quite possibly be a circ.
Sone evidence of this. And thus would have a more eastern track.

I dont know if you saw my post earlier about recon but they will not fly today.

THE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION TASKED IN TCPOD 19-140
WAS CANCELED BY NHC AT 16/1400Z.

I did not.. always when we need it most.. lol

[tropicwatch]

I am wondering why this hasn't been tagged as an invest yet?

[SconnieCane]

I remember just over a year or so ago people were calling for a "lopsided, sheared TS" into the Gulf Coast. Not that I'm expecting a similar outcome, but some people are too quick to assume shear conditions can't change as fast as they can. Just subtle model-margin-of-error differences in placement/timing of synoptic features can make a massive difference in the amount of detrimental shearing actually experienced by a TC.

[blp]

Ukmet is much stronger and further east.

[northjaxpro]

I am wondering why this hasn't been tagged as an invest yet?

Yeah, I am quite mystified by this as well Panama

[psyclone]

model trends are stair stepping toward a Cedar Key special...should those trends continue. How latter October. Climo FTW.

[Ivanhater]

Euro, gfs, Canadian all into NW Florida

[chaser1]

12Z GFS at 48 hrs is showing a stronger advection of mid-layer moisture over LL dry air.
This suggests very strong dry-line convection.
This in turn would interact with the forecasted PV Streamer and push out some of its inhibiting effects on vort stacking.
Latent heating from the dry-line convection would also suggest a longer duration warm core.
In other words, GFS is trending this being a warm core longer than previously forecasted.
Watching the dry-line convection and the Rossby Wave interaction will be key in judging strength at landfall.

https://i.imgur.com/Dpop0WK.png

Shear is still screaming across the entire GoM right now, with most areas over 50 knots. This will have to play into this unless it diminishes as it moves NE toward the Gulf Coast.

Wind shear is really strong once you get to about 24N but not too bad over the far southwest Gulf. Forecast shear maps aren't suggesting any real improvement though. Only thing I see is a positive tilting cut-off low over N. Texas that traverses eastward with time. In 48 hr's, the flow at it's base starts to become more negatively tilted and depending on timing may slightly help aid the tropical system's eastward outflow jet. Regardless, nothing within the GFS 12z upper level modeling suggests that this system actually develops it's own anticyclone and seeing this I just have a hard time understanding how the models are so quickly coming together and depicting this to be a deeper more organized storm then the projected "slop" that models were depicting 24 hr's ago. I recognize that "models" are certainly appearing to develop this system now. That may/may not be depicted with later model runs. Without developing it's own fairly stout upper level anticyclone or unless this system were to develop a little quicker then expected AS WELL AS track more ENE then NE'ward, then I just don't see how it becomes as deep and organized as the GFS & UK depict.

[cycloneye]

The invest will be up soon enough so a little patience here.I say it will be up before the afternoon is out.

[northjaxpro]

model trends are stair stepping toward a Cedar Key special...should those trends continue. How latter October. Climo FTW.

Psyclone, I am with you. It sure is looking more and more that this could come right at Steinhatchee/ Cedar Key region around the mouth of the Suwannee River. That would really bring significant impacts across North and Northeast Florida this weekend if it takes that path. Models keep shifting south and east.

[Ivanhater]

12z model have not shifted east. Gfs actually shifted west

[Aric Dunn]

The trick with this..is how soon it can close off. It looks like that is happening quite a bit sooner hence the shifting east in some of the models.

This more south it tracks and a more ene motion will keep the relative shear along the forward motion possibly allowing it to find/build its own little light shear pocket.

Something to watch for the next 24hrs

[northjaxpro]

12z model have not shifted east. Gfs actually shifted west

I did not notice a west shift Ivan. If it was, it wasn't very noticeable to me unless I just really overlooked the run. I guess that's possible with me lately

[SFLcane]

12Z GEFS is WAY more active than any recent GEFS run and it is also SE of prior runs as well as faster. A much bigger deal implied for much of the deep SE US into FL. Consistent with this: mean inland rainfall much heavier than recent runs over most of FL and also up the SE coast. Check it out on Tidbits when it comes out.

Interesting... Really all comes down to phasing.