Area of disturbed weather entering the Caribbean (Is Invest 96L)

[TheStormExpert]

We will not have any season ending cold fronts due to the NAO going back to positive. These friends will not really cool us down here on the east coast because of the NE winds.I will be keeping an eye on the Caribbean next week.

Yep! Fall in Florida will have to wait at least several more weeks if not longer. Could just end up going into CA if the NAO ends up being too positive.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Low 80's. 60's inland next week down here. I'll take it

[Loveweather12]

Gfs is trash showing development till it gets in medium range only to pick it back up.

Same here. I’m not -removed- but could be wrong but I honestly feel the same way. I haven’t took my shutters down from the last possible land falling storm

[MJGarrison]

I think this from the JMA and Euro is sure to raise some eyebrows...

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201027/04db1ac04bc1b3ce7efb6260af299a10.png
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201027/ad0729b91274c4898fac2681292a0c89.png


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Development seems very possible but also looking at the Euro, it is showing a significant front pushing through the GOM, Florida, and northern NW Caribbean. This is around the time of year we look for such a “season-ending” front for the US and Florida and this might just very well be it

https://i.postimg.cc/9QFGCFD1/ecmwf-T850a-us-fh72-240.gif

The NAO is going to be positive so I have significant doubts on any significant cold front pushing through Florida anytime soon.

The GFS NAO prediction is just a calculation based off of the GFS models runs. The two cannot contradict one another. The model runs are what determine NAO predictions, not the other way around.


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[TheStormExpert]

Low 80's. 60's inland next week down here. I'll take it

Where are you seeing 60’s for lows? Not even up here in coastal NE Palm Beach County are we going to see those kinds of lows with a NE wind.

[Jr0d]

Agree on the season-ending cold front coming in. Temps here in Tampa supposed to start dropping over the weekend and then again next week as fronts begin to sweep through. This should kick out any storms out to sea. Feeling safe here in Fla but will still keep an eye on it.

I would not bet on it. Now the models that still have it are shifting west...CA or Yucatan.

One thing is for sure, we can throw climatology out the window.

[CrazyC83]

One thing to remember is that dynamics of the atmosphere in November are very different than in the peak of hurricane season. These storms will likely hit troughs a lot more readily and they will create otherwise unusual movements. Also many of the broadest storms (size wise) are late season storms too.

[Nuno]

One thing to remember is that dynamics of the atmosphere in November are very different than in the peak of hurricane season. These storms will likely hit troughs a lot more readily and they will create otherwise unusual movements. Also many of the broadest storms (size wise) are late season storms too.

Why is this?

[SFLcane]

Yikes!

[aspen]

Yikes!

https://i.imgur.com/kYFhOro.gif

Jeez, that run would give anyone in Nicaragua a heart attack. That was so close to a Cat 4 landfall.

Good to see that at least some of the models haven’t fallen into the Mid Range Performance Stumble.

[cp79]

Yikes!

https://i.imgur.com/kYFhOro.gif

Haha I see the Para model has dipped into Happy Hour. So unrealistic.

[aspen]

The 18z GFS-Para shows the precursor vorticity passing through the Lesser Antilles on Halloween, starting to coalesce on November 1st, and really taking off in organization on the 2nd and 3rd. All of that is within a week. If Eta develops a relatively compact circulation (it’s not ridiculously broad) and moves slowly over the higher OHC patches, a major is very likely, assuming pesky mid-level shear doesn’t stop it like Zeta.

[HurricaneBelle]

One thing to remember is that dynamics of the atmosphere in November are very different than in the peak of hurricane season. These storms will likely hit troughs a lot more readily and they will create otherwise unusual movements. Also many of the broadest storms (size wise) are late season storms too.

Like 1994's Gordon:

[Loveweather12]

Yikes!

https://i.imgur.com/kYFhOro.gif

Haha I see the Para model has dipped into Happy Hour. So unrealistic.

With the way this year is going, it might not be unrealistic

[TheStormExpert]

All the 12z EPS eject this NE over Cuba and The Bahamas then OTS, with no threat to Florida.

 https://twitter.com/hurricanemanwx/status/1321223005155020806

[blp]

Yikes!

https://i.imgur.com/kYFhOro.gif

Haha I see the Para model has dipped into Happy Hour. So unrealistic.

With the way this year is going, it might not be unrealistic

2020 keeps churning.. That run would check off two items on the list of breaking the 2005 record and putting a hole in the Florida deflector shield. At 240hr it's very close the Euro position.

[Jr0d]

Yikes!

https://i.imgur.com/kYFhOro.gif

It had a run like this pre-Zeta also.

Until a low actually forms, the models are more or less for entertainment value.

[SconnieCane]

All the 12z EPS eject this NE over Cuba and The Bahamas then OTS, with no threat to Florida.

https://twitter.com/hurricanemanwx/status/1321223005155020806

Well some say it's going into CA and some say it's going through the Bahamas and OTS so Florida seems like a nice down-the-middle compromise at the moment.

[SFLcane]

Haha I see the Para model has dipped into Happy Hour. So unrealistic.

With the way this year is going, it might not be unrealistic

2020 keeps churning.. That run would check off two items on the list of breaking the 2005 record and putting a hole in the Florida deflector shield. At 240hr it's very close the Euro position.

Indeed it’s actually spot on with the Euro.

[TheStormExpert]

All the 12z EPS eject this NE over Cuba and The Bahamas then OTS, with no threat to Florida.

https://twitter.com/hurricanemanwx/status/1321223005155020806

Well some say it's going into CA and some say it's going through the Bahamas and OTS so Florida seems like a nice down-the-middle compromise at the moment.

Nah! The Florida Hurricane-Shield is in full force as it’s been all season.