2022 EPAC Season

[Category5Kaiju]

Lol, the third system doesn't even have a pressure millibar reading on it for a bit of time and interacts with the 933 mbar system

This run imho is very sus; it's one thing if it's another storm, but for there to be three storms like this, one of which seems to have no hard time intensifying despite being in a relatively dry environment, I sort of smell convective bias here lol

[skyline385]

Lol, the third system doesn't even have a pressure millibar reading on it for a bit of time and interacts with the 933 mbar system

This run imho is very sus; it's one thing if it's another storm, but for there to be three storms like this, one of which seems to have no time intensifying despite being in a relatively dry environment, I sort of smell convective bias here lol

Nah that's just a bug (or shortcoming) in Levi's plotting code. And yea the GFS has been very sus with long term forecasts, overdoing the convective feedback everytime.

[Category5Kaiju]

Lol, the third system doesn't even have a pressure millibar reading on it for a bit of time and interacts with the 933 mbar system

This run imho is very sus; it's one thing if it's another storm, but for there to be three storms like this, one of which seems to have no time intensifying despite being in a relatively dry environment, I sort of smell convective bias here lol

Nah that's just a bug (or shortcoming) in Levi's plotting code. And yea the GFS has been very sus with long term forecasts, overdoing the convective feedback everytime.

https://i.imgur.com/XD00V43.png

Oooh ok yeah that's better

Yeah, with what the GFS did in early May in the Atlantic and has done countless times in the EPAC as we saw in 2020 and 2021, this looks very weird. I'll believe it when other models hop on

[ElectricStorm]

Lol, the third system doesn't even have a pressure millibar reading on it for a bit of time and interacts with the 933 mbar system

This run imho is very sus; it's one thing if it's another storm, but for there to be three storms like this, one of which seems to have no hard time intensifying despite being in a relatively dry environment, I sort of smell convective bias here lol

Yeah those two hurricanes becoming formidable that close to each other definitely seems suspect. And this is the first run that I'm aware of that bombs one of them out to the 930s mb range so I'm not putting much stock into that right now.

That being said we could at least see a few more storms in the next couple weeks behind 96E. Maybe a couple of them can become decent hurricanes.

[cycloneye]

This trio is after 96E / Estelle is gone.

[Sciencerocks]

This trio is after 96E / Estelle is gone.

https://i.imgur.com/SOsriIN.png

This year is acting like a nino!!! I am floored.

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1547901194554593280

[Yellow Evan]

This trio is after 96E / Estelle is gone.

https://i.imgur.com/SOsriIN.png

This year is acting like a nino!!! I am floored.

This is the usual long range GFS guff we see anytime the model has rising motion over the Americas.

[Ntxw]

The question to ask here is what role does ENSO sub-surface play for the EPAC? We do technically have a Nina but the sub-surface has a big warm pool lurking down there. This is a bit different than traditional Ninas where a large cold pool usually dominates. Does it have any effect on the PNA? That's been running quite positive for awhile.

[Kingarabian]

The EPAC is very sensitive to intraseasonal variability like -CCKWs. We had triple passes since early June. Also is sensitive to early season El Nino headfakes.

I think regardless of a warm subsurface pool, the EPAC will be conducive for TCG when La Nina forcing takes a pause like it did during the end of May and early June.

[tolakram]

I expect activity will pause by late August like it seems to in most la nina years. 2010, 1998, etc. I was caught off guard at how many la nina years with strong early activity has the same name set.

I think this headline for 1998 sums it up: The 1998 Pacific hurricane season was a below average Pacific hurricane season. Despite this, it had nine hurricanes and six major hurricanes, which was well above average.

EPAC is so much different from the Atlantic, makes for some fun watching.

[Yellow Evan]

The question to ask here is what role does ENSO sub-surface play for the EPAC? We do technically have a Nina but the sub-surface has a big warm pool lurking down there. This is a bit different than traditional Ninas where a large cold pool usually dominates. Does it have any effect on the PNA? That's been running quite positive for awhile.

The undercurrents that carry warm water from the WPAC to the EPAC only exist by the surface AFAIK so I doubt the sun-surface pool is doing much. The PNA positivity correlates with ENSO so there’s a possible connection I guess.

[Ntxw]

The question to ask here is what role does ENSO sub-surface play for the EPAC? We do technically have a Nina but the sub-surface has a big warm pool lurking down there. This is a bit different than traditional Ninas where a large cold pool usually dominates. Does it have any effect on the PNA? That's been running quite positive for awhile.

The undercurrents that carry warm water from the WPAC to the EPAC only exist by the surface AFAIK so I doubt the sun-surface pool is doing much. The PNA positivity correlates with ENSO so there’s a possible connection I guess.

I've read some ideas on the sub-surface warm pool having some effects. However would likely be more indirect. By current set up the teleconnection should be -PNA dominant, the only anomaly against it is that sub-surface pool. So perhaps that driver for the warm waters below is linked.

I'm just searching for some kind of indicator that may help explain. CCKWs, MJO etc alone doesn't really account for the quality of waves, they assist the environment for when the waves do come. There are big Nina seasons early but you can usually link some sort of lagging +PDO or lingering Nino effects, neither exists this season.

[zzh]

The current EPAC ace is 55.6, the third most active since 1990, only trailing 2015 and 1992. It is definitely not normal.

[skyline385]

The current EPAC ace is 55.6, the third most active since 1990, only trailing 2015 and 1992. It is definitely not normal.

Going to be 75 soon with 06E and then most models think there is another behind it.

Sent from my LM-V405 using Tapatalk

[aspen]

If Celia gets upgraded in post-season analysis and Estelle’s intensification continues, that means the EPac will have six consecutive hurricanes….in a -ENSO and -PDO year.

Something is not right with this year. In 2020 and 2021, so many EPac systems struggled to even get past 50 kt and looked like tropical roadkill. The Nina is still in place, but the EPac is somehow far less hostile.

[MHC Tracking]

This trio is after 96E / Estelle is gone.

https://i.imgur.com/SOsriIN.png

This year is acting like a nino!!! I am floored.

Does not seem to be a reliable forecast given the unrealistic refusal to correctly propagate the MJO out of the Pacific through the entirety of the run. Note the ECMWF and GEM seem to have a better handle on things here

[MHC Tracking]

If Celia gets upgraded in post-season analysis and Estelle’s intensification continues, that means the EPac will have six consecutive hurricanes….in a -ENSO and -PDO year.

Something is not right with this year. In 2020 and 2021, so many EPac systems struggled to even get past 50 kt and looked like tropical roadkill. The Nina is still in place, but the EPac is somehow far less hostile.

Pretty much no chance Celia is upped imo, ASCAT supported only 40-45 kt a little before peak, factoring in some intensification afterwards as evidenced by rising MW estimates, ~55 kt seems about right

[aspen]

If Celia gets upgraded in post-season analysis and Estelle’s intensification continues, that means the EPac will have six consecutive hurricanes….in a -ENSO and -PDO year.

Something is not right with this year. In 2020 and 2021, so many EPac systems struggled to even get past 50 kt and looked like tropical roadkill. The Nina is still in place, but the EPac is somehow far less hostile.

Pretty much no chance Celia is upped imo, ASCAT supported only 40-45 kt a little before peak, factoring in some intensification afterwards as evidenced by rising MW estimates, ~55 kt seems about right

After its initial peak, it rapidly recovered and had a fully developed eyewall. The NHC only upped it to 50 kt then, but the eyewall suggests it was indeed a hurricane.

[skyline385]

This trio is after 96E / Estelle is gone.

https://i.imgur.com/SOsriIN.png

This year is acting like a nino!!! I am floored.

Does not seem to be a reliable forecast given the unrealistic refusal to correctly propagate the MJO out of the Pacific through the entirety of the run. Note the ECMWF and GEM seem to have a better handle on things here

The trio was just GFS being GFS but the EURO does have another potential system behind Estelle