2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

[Category5Kaiju]

Pretty confident in saying , 2023 is the third warmest East Atlantic year in the last 53 years on record only behind the 2005 and 2010 Hurricane seasons for the date April 28th, even beating out 2016 and 2017.
https://i.postimg.cc/CL19fZP5/April-28-2023-SST-RESIZED-AGAIN.png
https://i.postimg.cc/NGbWM8xZ/April-28-2005-SST-RESIZED-AGAIN.png
https://i.postimg.cc/mkdq5RDT/April-28-2010-SST-RESIZED-AGAIN.png

I've honestly never seen the Canary Current that beefed up. 2010 still reigns supreme overall in the actual MDR though, widespread anoms of 2C+ encompassing the entirety of the MDR was absolutely insane. Honestly that season underperformed all things considered; perfect storm with La Niña, inactive EPAC and record warm MDR yet it barely managed to eclipse the hyperactive threshold (166 ACE compared to the 1951-2020 median of 159). Would have expected it to exceed 200+ ACE with ease.

I think 2010 is a good example of how having a strong La Nina isn't as favorable for Atlantic activity compared to a weaker one. I recall sometime last year seeing a comparison chart of average Atlantic ACE for each of the different types and strengths of ENSO conditions. Weak La Nina ranks first. Then it is cool neutral. Strong La Nina years are lower in average ACE than weak La Nina years and cool neutral, but also above El Nino years.

There's something about having a very strong La Nina that stunts Atlantic activity potential to an extent. Not exactly sure what that is precisely though.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Pretty confident in saying , 2023 is the third warmest East Atlantic year in the last 53 years on record only behind the 2005 and 2010 Hurricane seasons for the date April 28th, even beating out 2016 and 2017.
https://i.postimg.cc/CL19fZP5/April-28-2023-SST-RESIZED-AGAIN.png
https://i.postimg.cc/NGbWM8xZ/April-28-2005-SST-RESIZED-AGAIN.png
https://i.postimg.cc/mkdq5RDT/April-28-2010-SST-RESIZED-AGAIN.png

I've honestly never seen the Canary Current that beefed up. 2010 still reigns supreme overall in the actual MDR though, widespread anoms of 2C+ encompassing the entirety of the MDR was absolutely insane. Honestly that season underperformed all things considered; perfect storm with La Niña, inactive EPAC and record warm MDR yet it barely managed to eclipse the hyperactive threshold (166 ACE compared to the 1951-2020 median of 159). Would have expected it to exceed 200+ ACE with ease.

I think 2010 is a good example of how having a strong La Nina isn't as favorable for Atlantic activity compared to a weaker one. I recall sometime last year seeing a comparison chart of average Atlantic ACE for each of the different types and strengths of ENSO conditions. Weak La Nina ranks first. Then it is cool neutral. Strong La Nina years are lower in average ACE than weak La Nina years and cool neutral, but also above El Nino years.

There's something about having a very strong La Nina that stunts Atlantic activity potential to an extent. Not exactly sure what that is precisely though.

Yeah I've heard of this. Might be Hadley/Walker circulation related as the balance can be upset by particularly strong ENSO events on either side of the spectrum. I'll have to do more research to confirm this though.

[Yellow Evan]

cool subtropics/mid-latitudes limited activity outside of the deep tropics in 2010 + years after an El Niño tend to start slow because it takes time for the atmosphere to respond to the rapidly changing oceanic configuration. And it was still hyperactive.

[JetFuel_SE]

:uarrow: cool subtropics/mid-latitudes limited activity outside of the deep tropics in 2010 + years after an El Niño tend to start slow because it takes time for the atmosphere to respond to the rapidly changing oceanic configuration. And it was still hyperactive.

Don't need an active early season for hyperactivity, just look at 2004.

[Yellow Evan]

:uarrow: cool subtropics/mid-latitudes limited activity outside of the deep tropics in 2010 + years after an El Niño tend to start slow because it takes time for the atmosphere to respond to the rapidly changing oceanic configuration. And it was still hyperactive.

Don't need an active early season for hyperactivity, just look at 2004.

2004 had an active early season though. 3 of 6 majors formed in August.

[JetFuel_SE]

:uarrow: cool subtropics/mid-latitudes limited activity outside of the deep tropics in 2010 + years after an El Niño tend to start slow because it takes time for the atmosphere to respond to the rapidly changing oceanic configuration. And it was still hyperactive.

Don't need an active early season for hyperactivity, just look at 2004.

2004 had an active early season though. 3 of 6 majors formed in August.

Early season would be June-July, not August lol.

[Yellow Evan]

Don't need an active early season for hyperactivity, just look at 2004.

2004 had an active early season though. 3 of 6 majors formed in August.

Early season would be June-July, not August lol.

I mean by that metric no season except 2005 or 1933 or 1916 has meaningful early season activity lol. Outside of select high activity years and the occasional CAG, TC activity in those months are from non-tropical origins, which don’t accumulate much ACE or seldom intensify beyond low-end hurricane status.

2010 was pretty quiet until August 25 hence why I noted early season wasn’t active in my original comment.

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1652722419805876224

[cycloneye]

The battle between the upcomming El Niño and the +AMO configuration is starting.

[cycloneye]

The 1-2-3.

 https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1652827210896625670

[Category5Kaiju]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1652834308652953600




Andy makes a very intriguing point here. Having a traditional, robust El Nino and a scorching tropical Atlantic is going to be a very interesting battle

[cycloneye]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1652834308652953600

Andy makes a very intriguing point here. Having a traditional, robust El Nino and a scorching tropical Atlantic is going to be a very interesting battle

That is me saying that about it only takes one.

[cycloneye]

May CanSIPS.

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1652838315261935616

[Stormybajan]

Wow, big warm up in SST from April to May from CANSIPS which is no surprise given how boiling it is out there in the east currently, however...I simply do NOT buy this shear run at all lol Nino is coming, a hefty one as well. Thats not a NINO look..

[aspen]

The battle between the upcomming El Niño and the +AMO configuration is starting.

https://i.imgur.com/8KdYcAW.png

Bonkers SSTA configuration, but I’m always cautious about latching on to SSTAs this far out. We could very easily see a shift to a much less favorable looking setup after a few weeks or months. If this was during a first-year neutral to weak Nina, I’d expect a hyperactive season up there with some of the big years like ‘95, ‘04, ‘05, and ‘17. Definitely not the case with the pretty much guaranteed Nino.

I think 2023 could follow a similar pattern to 2018: a relatively active MDR with at least one high ACE long-tracked (mainly in the subtropics), but an extremely hostile Caribbean and multiple storms running into shear in the central deep tropics (ex: Issac and Kirk). Enhanced subtropic activity is possible depending on how SSTAs look by June/July.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Wow, big warm up in SST from April to May from CANSIPS which is no surprise given how boiling it is out there in the east currently, however...I simply do NOT buy this shear run at all lol Nino is coming, a hefty one as well. Thats not a NINO look..

https://i.postimg.cc/rwrCMXnM/May-2023-ASO-Cansips-SST-Resized.png
https://i.postimg.cc/s2CP26qS/May-2023-CANSIPS-Shear-Run-resized.png

Yeah I'm gonna have to file that one under "doubt" for now, not quite sure what it is seeing that would lower shear so significantly during a Niño episode. Surely SSTs alone can't have that effect, right?

[cycloneye]

August CanSIPS says Shear-Shear-Shear.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

This is probably one of the main reasons why the CanSIPS is not showing noticeably significant shear despite the Niño - it has a dry EPAC anomaly wise which implies inactivity. It does show the -PDO persisting throughout the season so I guess that is why, but once again I still find this perplexing. Yes, perhaps the PDO could be an issue for the EPAC but it still has the aid of ENSO, so why exactly would it be so quiet?

[zzzh]

That's just ITCZ retracting to the south due to El Nino, it does not mean inactivity.

[weeniepatrol]

This is probably one of the main reasons why the CanSIPS is not showing noticeably significant shear despite the Niño - it has a dry EPAC anomaly wise which implies inactivity. It does show the -PDO persisting throughout the season so I guess that is why, but once again I still find this perplexing. Yes, perhaps the PDO could be an issue for the EPAC but it still has the aid of ENSO, so why exactly would it be so quiet?

You'd sooner catch me dead than trusting the leaf model