2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[OuterBanker]

With today's GFS runs I thought that the GFS had finally entered rehab. It dropped all the sub 970 systems. But I see that it is still persistent in forming a west Carib system, just not as strong. No other model is predicting it, still.

[Cpv17]

I’m thinking we could have a lot of recurves if those warm MDR temps continue.

[USTropics]

To the surprise of no one many, the latest GFS run has dropped the WCARIB system. It's been trending towards the wave axis crossing CA before development occurs over the past several runs:

[LarryWx]

To the surprise of no one many, the latest GFS run has dropped the WCARIB system. It's been trending towards the wave axis crossing CA before development occurs over the past several runs:

https://i.imgur.com/iAxRE0z.gif

GFS streak: 12Z June 5th, 2023-18Z June 11th, 2023 RIP
It was 26 runs old.

It had a pretty long life though not near a record breaker. This streak will always be remembered for its tenacity.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

GFS showing development around 40W in about 9 days.

Probably nothing, but shows that early-season activity in the MDR is possible with the extraordinarily anomalous warm SSTs.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1668355924136714263

[IcyTundra]

The GFS WCAR system is back TS into Belize.

[BobHarlem]

6z's gfs is showing the epac and MDR systems both, as well as yet another, different, system in the west Caribbean (days later than the last one it did.) The MDR is a maybe system too, probably sloppy if anything.

I still find it amazing the GFS just seems to be consistently overreacting to Venezuela, particularly right around Pico El Turmal just east of Lake Maracaibo. Any slight disturbance just gets amplified to extremes whenever it gets near there on the GFS. It happened last year, and it's happening this year. I really wish I knew why that is.

[Jr0d]

Well the GFS was right about a west Caribbean hurricane last summer it just was off by 3 months.

Classic that it drops the storm in the 18-20th time frane amd now showing something about a week later.

That said, it looks like the EPAC is going to to get some action soon.

[tiger_deF]

GFS now showing development in the western Caribbean within 120h

[Category5Kaiju]

The 00Z Euro seems to really like that potential MDR system around the June 20th timeframe

[Ianswfl]

The 00Z Euro seems to really like that potential MDR system around the June 20th timeframe

06z gfs also showing a sheared ts hitting south fl next tue once again. Typical early season storm

[LarryWx]

The 00Z Euro seems to really like that potential MDR system around the June 20th timeframe

06z gfs also showing a sheared ts hitting south fl next tue once again. Typical early season storm

For those who don't realize it, that is from the same entity that lead to the 26 GFS run streak of a W Caribbean TC genesis within 6/18-20, which at the time was still during forecast week two. There have been several runs since that streak ended that have had a 6/18-20 formation there, which is now within week #1. This is one of them.

[wxman57]

GFS is still all alone in forecasting a west Caribbean storm in 5-6 days. It's upper air pattern does not match the EC, CMC, or ICON. Other models do not indicate any low-level vorticity moving offshore Venezuela/Colombia. I think the GFS is still wrong.

[NDG]

My thoughts exactly.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1668992651335548930

[SFLcane]

My thoughts exactly.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1668992651335548930?s=46

Fun is just starting. If these conditions come to pass with a TUTT placement similar to 2004 with the right steering look out.

[WeatherBoy2000]

My thoughts exactly.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1668992651335548930?s=46

Fun is just starting. If these conditions come to pass with a TUTT placement similar to 2004 with the right steering look out.

https://i.postimg.cc/htk95jkh/cfs33.png

If development were to occur in the mdr this month, it could be a sign pointing towards a more active season down the line. Early mdr development in June through early July is unusual and correlates quite well with active seasons. Development of this wave could help further back up the case that we're looking at a more active season than usually expected with a robust El Nino.

[wxman57]

Looks like any development near the NE Caribbean around the 23rd would have a clear path to recurve east of the U.S. This feature that the models are seeing is still over Africa. Wind shear will not be in its favor as it tracks westward.

[SFLcane]

Looks like any development near the NE Caribbean around the 23rd would have a clear path to recurve east of the U.S. This feature that the models are seeing is still over Africa. Wind shear will not be in its favor as it tracks westward.

Conditions are as favorable as they can get across the mdr for june.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1669017665447534592

[BobHarlem]

The12Z Euro is getting a bit stronger with the MDR system.