Tropical Wave in Bay of Campeche (Is Invest 91L)

[SFLcane]

Well, I know Adrian isn’t currently nightnight unfortunately. Not good on the 12Z Euro ens as it is active again with many near FL.
Can we cancel this run?

Hey Larry! You know me by now lol... I leave the ace and numbers for the seasonal forecasters " for me" its all about impacts just takes 1 over you. Potential analogs here David 79 or Cleo 64 if we get a tc.

[TomballEd]

The late developers on the GFS ensembles produce a Gulf threat, op GFS almost closes it off in the BoC, GFS ensembles not as excited as Euro ensembles, but show the spread possible for systems developing E of the Caribbean and those forming in the W. Caribbean.


Looking at 500 mb heights at 210 on the Canadian, there is a solid break caused by a trough to the N that should turn the Canadian's hurricane quickly N, I'd think the 240 solution would extrapolate somewhere between Mobile and Key Largo/Miami.

Ensemble spread suggest picking a landfall won't be so simple as looking at Canadian forecast heights.

[AutoPenalti]

Well, I know Adrian isn’t currently nightnight unfortunately. Not good on the 12Z Euro ens as it is active again with many near FL.
Can we cancel this run?

Man at this point I'm just going to pay for a subscription just to get early access to EPS shenanigans.

[toad strangler]

Well, I know Adrian isn’t currently nightnight unfortunately. Not good on the 12Z Euro ens as it is active again with many near FL.
Can we cancel this run?

Man at this point I'm just going to pay for a subscription just to get early access to EPS shenanigans.

That's what I do just for Aug / Sept / Oct! Monthly Storm Vista subscription.
12z EPS is

[SFLcane]

Well, I know Adrian isn’t currently nightnight unfortunately. Not good on the 12Z Euro ens as it is active again with many near FL.
Can we cancel this run?

Man at this point I'm just going to pay for a subscription just to get early access to EPS shenanigans.

That's what I do just for Aug / Sept / Oct! Monthly Storm Vista subscription.
12z EPS is

Pm you lol.

[cycloneye]

12z EPS ensembles:

 https://x.com/weatherman_aaa/status/1829226158795411605

@weatherman_aaa
While the 12z operational GFS dropped development of our system, recent 12z EPS has increased support from 00z.

it’s important to always look at the big picture when assessing model trends and conditions! Lots can and will change as the signal progresses with time

[Category5Kaiju]

Wow, that last CMC was quite a run. Has it going on a Dennis like track, and based on its extrapolated trajectory, looks like it may be a West Coast of Florida threat

[Hammy]

12z EPS ensembles:

 https://x.com/weatherman_aaa/status/1829226158795411605

@weatherman_aaa
While the 12z operational GFS dropped development of our system, recent 12z EPS has increased support from 00z.

it’s important to always look at the big picture when assessing model trends and conditions! Lots can and will change as the signal progresses with time

The GFS doesn't seem to be doing well the last few years prior to actual formation

[cycloneye]

Finnally CMC ends the 12z run here.

[Ivanhater]

Looks like heights are building back with the trough on the way out on Canadian...not good

Heights were building behind trough...ends headed wnw o to central Gulf

[psyclone]

Wow, that last CMC was quite a run. Has it going on a Dennis like track, and based on its extrapolated trajectory, looks like it may be a West Coast of Florida threat

It sure seems like the east gulf has had a hot hand in recent years. My hood just got another 4" dump yesterday. We need a break after this month...what a difference a year makes after a freakishly dry July/August last year..

[cajungal]

On the 3rd anniversary of Ida which is today none of us want to see Francine in the gulf

[SFLcane]

I'm hoping it doesn't develop, but I think there's a good chance it will. Currently don't see anything to push it toward the NW Gulf, at least. Could eventually become a Florida threat. We'll see. I'm still taking tomorrow off and will be off until Tuesday (I hope).

Reposting this for potential gulf threats

[LarryWx]

JMA 1008 low moving WNW just SE of Grand Cayman at end (192)

[HurricaneBelle]

Wow, that last CMC was quite a run. Has it going on a Dennis like track, and based on its extrapolated trajectory, looks like it may be a West Coast of Florida threat

It sure seems like the east gulf has had a hot hand in recent years. My hood just got another 4" dump yesterday. We need a break after this month...what a difference a year makes after a freakishly dry July/August last year..

Yeah this decade alone we've had Eta, Elsa, Ian, Idalia, Debby and one or two I'm probably forgetting.

[Stormlover70]

Looks like heights are building back with the trough on the way out on Canadian...not good

Heights were building behind trough...ends headed wnw o to central Gulf

This far out is grasping at straws.

[caneman]

Wow, that last CMC was quite a run. Has it going on a Dennis like track, and based on its extrapolated trajectory, looks like it may be a West Coast of Florida threat

It sure seems like the east gulf has had a hot hand in recent years. My hood just got another 4" dump yesterday. We need a break after this month...what a difference a year makes after a freakishly dry July/August last year..

Yeah this decade alone we've had Eta, Elsa, Ian, Idalia, Debby and one or two I'm probably forgetting.

Irma

[AutoPenalti]

Yikes.
 https://twitter.com/SCweather_wx/status/1829226495660962299

[Ivanhater]

Looks like heights are building back with the trough on the way out on Canadian...not good

Heights were building behind trough...ends headed wnw o to central Gulf

This far out is grasping at straws.

We are discussing the specific model run. There are no "straws to grasp"

[skyline385]

12z EPS was a pretty ridiculous run