2025 NATL hurricane season is here

[ConvergenceZone]

My previous post was deleted, but I think it's because I posted it under the wrong topic, So I'll post it under this more appropriate topic. Someone had mentioned the season was boring, and my opinion is that I don't think it's boring, although it is far underperforming what was expected this season in terms of the amount of storms that were forecasted including landfalling storms. With that said, enjoy the break why we got it because storms will probably be back with a vengeance next season.

[MetroMike]

My previous post was deleted, but I think it's because I posted it under the wrong topic, So I'll post it under this more appropriate topic. Someone had mentioned the season was boring, and my opinion is that I don't think it's boring, although it is far underperforming what was expected this season in terms of the amount of storms that were forecasted including landfalling storms. With that said, enjoy the break why we got it because storms will probably be back with a vengeance next season.

Yeah I know the feeling, major house cleaning was being done here, such a slow year whats the matter with small talk?

[ConvergenceZone]

Curious question for those who know more about hurricanes than I do. I know that many here have predicted that 2025 would be a backloaded season due to the slow start to the season, so I'm just curious when do you think the back-loading of end of the season storms will start? I know that we don't want to include September and Early October since that's usually the heart of the season, so that can't be it. So when saying back-loaded season, do you mean you think the storms will pick up by late October or November? Never really quite knew the correction definition of that term.

[WeatherBoy2000]

Curious question for those who know more about hurricanes than I do. I know that many here have predicted that 2025 would be a backloaded season due to the slow start to the season, so I'm just curious when do you think the back-loading of end of the season storms will start? I know that we don't want to include September and Early October since that's usually the heart of the season, so that can't be it. So when saying back-loaded season, do you mean you think the storms will pick up by late October or November? Never really quite knew the correction definition of that term.

September 10th is the statistical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, presumably, a backloaded season is one where the bulk of activity occurs after this date.

[LarryWx]

Curious question for those who know more about hurricanes than I do. I know that many here have predicted that 2025 would be a backloaded season due to the slow start to the season, so I'm just curious when do you think the back-loading of end of the season storms will start? I know that we don't want to include September and Early October since that's usually the heart of the season, so that can't be it. So when saying back-loaded season, do you mean you think the storms will pick up by late October or November? Never really quite knew the correction definition of that term.

September 10th is the statistical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, presumably, a backloaded season is one where the bulk of activity occurs after this date.

I agree with this. And it has been backloaded with 36 pre 9/10 and already 59 since!

[ConvergenceZone]

Curious question for those who know more about hurricanes than I do. I know that many here have predicted that 2025 would be a backloaded season due to the slow start to the season, so I'm just curious when do you think the back-loading of end of the season storms will start? I know that we don't want to include September and Early October since that's usually the heart of the season, so that can't be it. So when saying back-loaded season, do you mean you think the storms will pick up by late October or November? Never really quite knew the correction definition of that term.

September 10th is the statistical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, presumably, a backloaded season is one where the bulk of activity occurs after this date.

I agree with this. And it has been backloaded with 36 pre 9/10 and already 59 since!

thanks for the answers WeatherBoy and Larry. But let me ask you think have there been many recent years where we only made it up to the "K" storm? assuming we may not get anymore storms since we are already hitting mid October with nothing on the horizon.

[LarryWx]

September 10th is the statistical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, presumably, a backloaded season is one where the bulk of activity occurs after this date.

I agree with this. And it has been backloaded with 36 pre 9/10 and already 59 since!

thanks for the answers WeatherBoy and Larry. But let me ask you think have there been many recent years where we only made it up to the "K" storm? assuming we may not get anymore storms since we are already hitting mid October with nothing on the horizon.

1. The odds of there being no more NS are low based on it being La Niña and considering late activity of recent years.

2. In case that’s it though, the last years with 11 or fewer were 2015, 2014, 2009, 2006, 1997, and 1994 (all El Niño). But all of these had 78 or lower ACE.

[ConvergenceZone]

I agree with this. And it has been backloaded with 36 pre 9/10 and already 59 since!

thanks for the answers WeatherBoy and Larry. But let me ask you think have there been many recent years where we only made it up to the "K" storm? assuming we may not get anymore storms since we are already hitting mid October with nothing on the horizon.

1. The odds of there being no more NS are low based on it being La Niña and considering late activity of recent years.

2. In case that’s it though, the last years with 11 or fewer were 2015, 2014, 2009, 2006, 1997, and 1994 (all El Niño).

oh wow okay, so it's much more common than I thought. Here's an interesting stat I found, "As of early October 2025, the US has not had a hurricane make landfall yet, making it the first time in 10 years that this has happened through the end of September". I think that is why this season feels to empty of storms, giving the illusion that it's been slow. It's not that there haven't been any storms, but that it's been 10 years since we have NOT had a hurricane make landfall. 10 years is one big block of time.

[al78]

thanks for the answers WeatherBoy and Larry. But let me ask you think have there been many recent years where we only made it up to the "K" storm? assuming we may not get anymore storms since we are already hitting mid October with nothing on the horizon.

1. The odds of there being no more NS are low based on it being La Niña and considering late activity of recent years.

2. In case that’s it though, the last years with 11 or fewer were 2015, 2014, 2009, 2006, 1997, and 1994 (all El Niño).

oh wow okay, so it's much more common than I thought. Here's an interesting stat I found, "As of early October 2025, the US has not had a hurricane make landfall yet, making it the first time in 10 years that this has happened through the end of September". I think that is why this season feels to empty of storms, giving the illusion that it's been slow. It's not that there haven't been any storms, but that it's been 10 years since we have NOT had a hurricane make landfall. 10 years is one big block of time.

It is not an illusion it has been a slow season, it is a fact. There have been two cat 5 hurricanes but aside from that, there has been little activity of note. The Atlantic MDR has been virtually devoid of any hurricane days. The Caribbean Sea has seen squat. All the major hurricane activity has taken place in the sub-tropics. This year is more characteristic of a moderate El Nino year than a cold neutral/borderline La Nina season.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Atla ... ummary.png

[StPeteMike]

al78, do you think there should be revisions or a renewed study on the impacts La Niña and El Niño has on our tropical systems or is the last couple years just an anomaly to what we think is the norm of these events? El Niño in 2023 should had kept activity to a minimum and instead we saw the 4th active season for named storms on record. That’s compared to this season, neutral moving into La Niña, that looks more like what we should expect from a moderate El Niño season.

[WeatherBoy2000]

al78, do you think there should be revisions or a renewed study on the impacts La Niña and El Niño has on our tropical systems or is the last couple years just an anomaly to what we think is the norm of these events? El Niño in 2023 should had kept activity to a minimum and instead we saw the 4th active season for named storms on record. That’s compared to this season, neutral moving into La Niña, that looks more like what we should expect from a moderate El Niño season.

I think far too many people over simplify seasonal forecasting down to la nina=active and el nino=inactive, many other factors also determine overall activity as well. 2023 was generally forecasted to be an active Atlantic season despite the strong el nino by models/forecasters. Both rightfully anticipated the record warm Atlantic being able to override suppressive influence, however, it's not like the el nino didn't have an effect. Most of the storms were weak due to wind shear, which would've probably been lower if it weren't for the el nino. Also, most of the activity was further out in the mdr/subtropical Atlantic, as is typical in an el nino year. Despite underperforming -enso seasons like 2013, 2022, and this year, all the hyperactive seasons since 2010 have occurred during la ninas.

[al78]

al78, do you think there should be revisions or a renewed study on the impacts La Niña and El Niño has on our tropical systems or is the last couple years just an anomaly to what we think is the norm of these events? El Niño in 2023 should had kept activity to a minimum and instead we saw the 4th active season for named storms on record. That’s compared to this season, neutral moving into La Niña, that looks more like what we should expect from a moderate El Niño season.

I think the last few years need looking into. I can understand 2023 as the effect of El Nino was completely overwhelmed by the effect of very high tropical Atlantic SSTs, but this year, and to an extent, last year, seems to have stuck two fingers up at the large scale climate teleconnections that have worked for decades. My belief is that seasonal forecasting has got harder, the pre-season teleconnections that worked well in the past don't seem to work as well now, and there seems to be a bigger influence from intra-seasonal variability which is much harder to predict if not impossible. I have had some communication with Phil Klotzbach about this year and he said something about the link between western Atlantic vertical wind shear and ACE breaking down this year, and if this is a new normal then it is concerning for the future of seasonal forecasting.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

My opinion is thus far this season can be described as average. I would not call it a slow year, with multiple long-tracked powerful and very classic Cape Verde hurricanes, but the impacts from them were thankfully relatively low compared to other years.